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Discussion in 'Members' Club Room' started by b787, Oct 9, 2017.

  1. b787
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    b787 Senior Member

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    Forecast by Bombardier

    [​IMG]

    Forecast by Embraer

    [​IMG]
     
  2. vesicles
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    vesicles Senior Member

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    I thought I made it clear that I wanted to see growth potential, which means % growth for the past decade and extrapolation for the future. And don't accuse me of moving the goal post. I did say in my last post that I didn't want to see flat lines, which implies that I wanted to a line going upward. A line means % growth as a function of time. I don't see any line.

    By the way, based on your map, Africa is included in an area with major market share. I guess you are suggesting that I should invest heavily in luxury business jets in Africa. Remind me per capital GDP in Africa. Does that fit your theory?
     
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  3. b787
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    b787 Senior Member

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    Do you understand that is a forecast for the next 7 years made by Embraer and Bombardier independently of each other?


    ownership mean the USA will replace at least 1/4 of the fleet
     
  4. b787
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    b787 Senior Member

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    owning a private jet is basically owning a fighter aircraft see



     
  5. vesicles
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    vesicles Senior Member

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    Believe it or not. I actually have a brain and I do understand what a forecast is. And I hope you understand the difference between forecast and trend.

    Yes, China's market will be small for the next 7 years. And Europe's market will be high. However, if Europe's share was much higher in the past and had been going down continuously for the past decade, it would be a bad idea to invest in business jet in Europe.

    On the other hand, if China's share was zero a couple years ago but is increasing exponentially. This is then very encouraging. Especially if China's share will still be low. That means China's business jet industry has a lot more room to grow. if I invest now, I will be able to make boatload of $$$.

    Two important criteria for investing: low current price/market and upward trend. China satisfies the low current market. I want to see the trend.

    So in summary, what you gave me is actually supporting my case to invest China's business jet market.
     
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  6. B.I.B.
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    B.I.B. Senior Member

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    Currently, would it be worth the while for private Jet ownership?
    I read that the PLAAF control the skies in China, subsequently, domestic flights are often delayed.Under those conditions would a privately owned jet do any better?
     
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  7. b787
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    b787 Senior Member

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  8. b787
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    b787 Senior Member

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    Do you understand that many private jets cost per unit is as expensive as a fighter jet and the operational per hour and rental per hour flight time is as expensive as a fighter aircraft?

    A falcon 7X is as expensive as a A-10 or F-16 to operate, operating a Embraer Phenom or a Learjet is cheaper but it is as expensive as flying a large UAV such as General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper.

    Tell me how many people can own one?


    A Embraer E-195 or a B-737 operated as a VIP carrier private jet are as expensive to operate as a F-35 per hour flight time.



    China has future as a mass transport market where you get tickets between $300-$1000 dollars but as a private jet Market still has no way to compete because most Chinese earn less than USD $300 a month.


    In Latin America many corrupt politicians, drug dealers and business people own them but remember there is a lot of injustice and poverty there, China has room to grow, true, but not as you claim for two simple reasons, first most manufacturers are from the Americas, south America Embraer and north America Cessna, Bombardier.

    A second the largest Market is north America since they have the largest fleets, so even only replacing old jets means more than 4000 aircraft in the next 7 years


     
  9. b787
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    b787 Senior Member

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  10. vesicles
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    vesicles Senior Member

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    For investment, you want to focus on potential and growth trend. A currently low but fast growing market is exactly what you want to see if you want to invest.

    VW invested heavily in china when average Chinese couldn't even afford a car tire. That's why they are so successful now.

    I don't care how expensive it is to operate a business jet. As long as it can be done in other countries, it can be done in China. Many posters have shown you the statistics on how many billionaires are in China and how fast China is generating more and more billionaires. These people would be the ideal target customers for business jets. You seem to conveniently ignore this key fact.

    You mentioned average Chinese earns less than $300/month. I'm not sure where you got that number. It sounds very low to me. But that's another matter. Let's just assume that number is correct. Thirty years ago, average Chinese made less than $100/year. That's a 36 fold increase. Doesn't it tell you that China is a healthy market with so much potential? It is still low now. But doesn't it tell you that you better get into the market now when it is still low? Would it be too late to get in when it becomes to high?

    Again, stop lecturing us on how expensive it is operate a business jet. We get it. It is expensive. Several years ago, a corrupt official from China lost US$200 million in Las Vegas in a single night. The news didn't even get on the front page in newspapers. China has a lot of people who can afford and are willing to dish out boatload of money. So actual dollar amount doesn't matter.

    Again, I stress that it is the grow trend that matters when we talk about investment. You want to market that is still low but is fast growing. That's the only way you can make money.

    And I stress again, there is no need to keep listing how expensive business jets are. We get it. And more importantly, it doesn't matter. As long as a market is healthy and strong, wealthy people will pop up like ground hogs. And you will have your customers. If you can get in early, you will occupy major shares.

    Again, no more videos on how expensive business jets are. Don't worry, I am not a chimp and can understand you.
     
    #20 vesicles, Oct 12, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2017
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