Why doesn't The Republic of China have any submarines?

Björn Larsson

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Good answers, thank you! But I want more...
Building submarines is about experience, not about size of shipping industry. You need to start somewhere and take every step forward.
Taiwan could've bought German and other surplus submarines after 1945. And Soviet submarines after 1990. And some know how together about it. I mean, Sweden got its first submarine in 1907 and had two dozens of them operational during the cold war. All domestically developed and built. It is hard to start from scratch now, but 30 years ago at least should've been the time to begin this journey.

Taiwan is trying to do just that --- skip the history. They have done this process before --- made their indigenous jet fighter, supersonic antiship missile, their close in RAM equivalents, stealth corvette, and so on.
All that was the wrong priority given that they are an island country, of course they needed to give big priority to their submarines! Especially in view of the great success of the US submarines against Japanese shipping during WWII. It should've been a high priority already when the island nation was made independent. I think they've made a huge and unnecessary mistake. Do they somehow have a cultural problem here, like cats love fish but hate water?

Even if Taiwan has the subs, going to war with them is another problem. How will a Taiwan sub be able to successfully identify a Chinese freighter underwater from let's say a Philippine, Korean, Japanese, Australian, or American flagged ship? The sea traffic around Taiwan are among the densest in the world --- conducting submarine warfare would be like conducting a shootout in a busy New York intersection. Missiles and torpedoes don't differentiate friend or foe--- they only see a target. Someone innocent is going to get into harm's way.
Just having a quick look at the world map, it seems that one could proclaim a 500 km sea zone from mainland China's coast line for unrestricted submarine warfare, without any foreign ships having any businesses there other than to trade with'em. And what if a Philippine or Australian ship is sunk outside of it? Would they join PRC's war against RoC? If they were always boycotted and now invaded, what do they have to lose? It won't be a Lusitania event.

In a protracted war, these submarines will have no base to go home to but their allies. Taiwan's bases would already be blown to bits by missile attacks and even taken over by special forces.
Maybe a modern submarine fleet could be powered by small nuclear power plants. Maybe they could be highly automatized with little crew supply needs. Maybe they could be resupplied from pre-deposited assets at sea. Primitive German submarines stayed at sea for a year or so. As responsible for the military security of Taiwan, being without a submarine fleet would be the biggest imaginable nightmare of all. Everything has to be done to heal that gaping wound.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Good answers, thank you! But I want more...

Taiwan could've bought German and other surplus submarines after 1945. And Soviet submarines after 1990. And some know how together about it. I mean, Sweden got its first submarine in 1907 and had two dozens of them operational during the cold war. All domestically developed and built. It is hard to start from scratch now, but 30 years ago at least should've been the time to begin this journey.

All that was the wrong priority given that they are an island country, of course they needed to give big priority to their submarines! Especially in view of the great success of the US submarines against Japanese shipping during WWII. It should've been a high priority already when the island nation was made independent. I think they've made a huge and unnecessary mistake. Do they somehow have a cultural problem here, like cats love fish but hate water?

ROCN has always had a small submarine capability, but the primary naval weapons they had were surface ships, which until the last few decades generally outclassed PLAN surface combatants.

The relatively small size of the ROCN overall, combined with foreign reluctance to provide wholesale expertise and knowledge, as well as the ROCN's superior surface force, all probably contributed to the ROCN's greater focus on surface ships without a submarine force.

In hindsight should the ROCN have focused more on submarines? Possibly.



Just having a quick look at the world map, it seems that one could proclaim a 500 km sea zone from mainland China's coast line for unrestricted submarine warfare, without any foreign ships having any businesses there other than to trade with'em. And what if a Philippine or Australian ship is sunk outside of it? Would they join PRC's war against RoC? If they were always boycotted and now invaded, what do they have to lose? It won't be a Lusitania event.

As a doctrine, unrestricted submarine warfare is risky and has not been practiced in modern conflicts. Even back when it was practiced, it was rather controversial for its time.

I don't think the consequences of adopting such a strategy can be shrugged off so easily to make it sound like the ROCN should adopt unrestricted submarine warfare as if it's an obvious solution. I would consider that to be just a few steps less controversial than Taiwan acquiring a nuclear capability -- i.e.: not something that can be casually suggested in a discussion without substantial weighing up of international political consequences and what could be reciprocal PRC response.



Maybe a modern submarine fleet could be powered by small nuclear power plants. Maybe they could be highly automatized with little crew supply needs. Maybe they could be resupplied from pre-deposited assets at sea. Primitive German submarines stayed at sea for a year or so. As responsible for the military security of Taiwan, being without a submarine fleet would be the biggest imaginable nightmare of all. Everything has to be done to heal that gaping wound.

The ROCN is looking to develop a new indigenous submarine design for the future. It's on the cards.
How successful they'll be is another matter, but they clearly recognize the need.

But they still have to contend with relatively limited funds, time urgency, and a need for foreign expertise to develop a successful submarine design, and that is all without considering the PLA's burgeoning ASW capability and pre-existing submarine superiority as well.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Good answers, thank you! But I want more...

Taiwan could've bought German and other surplus submarines after 1945. And Soviet submarines after 1990. And some know how together about it. I mean, Sweden got its first submarine in 1907 and had two dozens of them operational during the cold war. All domestically developed and built. It is hard to start from scratch now, but 30 years ago at least should've been the time to begin this journey.

Taiwan got US surplus submarines. You likely cannot maintain the German Type XX!s after the war, and many of these subs have shoddy, if not, unsafe, workmanship. Same with Soviet submarines, or IJN submarines.

All that was the wrong priority given that they are an island country, of course they needed to give big priority to their submarines! Especially in view of the great success of the US submarines against Japanese shipping during WWII. It should've been a high priority already when the island nation was made independent. I think they've made a huge and unnecessary mistake. Do they somehow have a cultural problem here, like cats love fish but hate water?

Not really. For an island country I would give priority to surface ships, especially on small escort or littoral vessels.

Just having a quick look at the world map, it seems that one could proclaim a 500 km sea zone from mainland China's coast line for unrestricted submarine warfare, without any foreign ships having any businesses there other than to trade with'em. And what if a Philippine or Australian ship is sunk outside of it? Would they join PRC's war against RoC? If they were always boycotted and now invaded, what do they have to lose? It won't be a Lusitania event.

Ships coming from Europe and the Middle East going all the way to Korea and Japan will have to pass through the Taiwan straits after going through the South China Seas. This is the fastest and most economical route. If they are forced a massive detour, this would greatly delay the shipping and raise the fuel costs. Your 500km declared zone is literally throttling on the throat of S. Korea's and Japan's vital sea lanes.

Maybe a modern submarine fleet could be powered by small nuclear power plants. Maybe they could be highly automatized with little crew supply needs. Maybe they could be resupplied from pre-deposited assets at sea. Primitive German submarines stayed at sea for a year or so. As responsible for the military security of Taiwan, being without a submarine fleet would be the biggest imaginable nightmare of all. Everything has to be done to heal that gaping wound.

Taiwan is further behind on nuclear power plants, not to mention it would greatly increase the cost of the submarine.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
@Björn Larsson

Republic of China is only recognized by a handful of nations, none of whom are able to build modern submarines.

They simply don’t have the technology to build a competitive submarine themselves. Especially against PRC. If fast track development was started today, they might have a handful of Song-class equivalent in the 2020s. That’s far too few and too primitive to fight with the PLAN of today, let alone the PLAN of the mid 2020s.

Such a force can only be used as a first strike weapon against civilian ships in peacetime. The moment they fire, they’ll be hunted down. PRC’s retaliatory fire would take out submarine bases leaving even the ones that didn’t fire without bases to replenish.

ROC does not possess nearly enough knowledge to build even a 091 level nuclear submarine. They haven’t even mastered building late WW2 level submarines. And should the central government believe they are working on NBC weapons, it’s likely that they’ll destroy the sites. Pre disposited assets at sea would just get sunk.

The resource spent on building submarines is better spent on building missiles and rockets, which can deter Beijing by holding cities hostage under the risk of artillery fire. That tactic has worked for decades. As long as Fujian is threatened by rockets, Beijing will not attack.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
@Björn Larsson

Republic of China is only recognized by a handful of nations, none of whom are able to build modern submarines.

They simply don’t have the technology to build a competitive submarine themselves. Especially against PRC. If fast track development was started today, they might have a handful of Song-class equivalent in the 2020s. That’s far too few and too primitive to fight with the PLAN of today, let alone the PLAN of the mid 2020s.

Such a force can only be used as a first strike weapon against civilian ships in peacetime. The moment they fire, they’ll be hunted down. PRC’s retaliatory fire would take out submarine bases leaving even the ones that didn’t fire without bases to replenish.

ROC does not possess nearly enough knowledge to build even a 091 level nuclear submarine. They haven’t even mastered building late WW2 level submarines. And should the central government believe they are working on NBC weapons, it’s likely that they’ll destroy the sites. Pre disposited assets at sea would just get sunk.

The resource spent on building submarines is better spent on building missiles and rockets, which can deter Beijing by holding cities hostage under the risk of artillery fire. That tactic has worked for decades. As long as Fujian is threatened by rockets, Beijing will not attack.

A couple of points.

1. I think it's worth highlighting that if Taiwan is working on NBC projects, the Chinese government will likely do anything it takes to destroy them. That would include sabotage and a pre-emptive military strike against those facilities.

2. Taiwan launching missiles against Fujian does not factor into deterrence. For the past 40 years, China has focused on domestic development and saw a war as disruptive to this task. That still applies today
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
When Taiwan held economic and technological advantage over the mainland, their grand plan was always to try and re-conquer the mainland. Hence the focus on the surface fleet, as you will need those to support an amphibious invasion.

Subs are most effective against enemy surface ships, but until the last few decades, China didn’t really have a surface fleet worth countering. Same deal with sea based trade.

China focused initially on subs over their surface fleet for the same reason why Taiwan wants subs now - they are most cost effective against a superior opfor surface fleet.

But China’s economic and technological revival was not only unprecedented in pace, but it also led to a sea change in international relations.

Add in a health does of ideological self delusionment on the part of Taiwan, by the time they realised they would need subs, the situation has changed so fundamentally and comprehensively that foreign assistance is pretty much not a viable option.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
How much will a Taiwanese submarine programme cost?

Australia is in a similar position with a class of 12 submarines of a new design.
They have a similar population, GDP, and both haven't had a large competitive commercial shipbuilding industry in decades.

Total Cost of Ownership is a minimum of 88 Billion AUD, based on a 30 year service life.
That works out as 63 Billion USD, which is roughly 2 Billion USD per year.

In comparison, Taiwan's military budget is only 11 Billion USD per year

And that doesn't take into account how the current Collins class has serious reliability and capability issues.



NB. Annual operating cost for a Collins class is 105 Million AUD
 

Lama

New Member
Registered Member
How much will a Taiwanese submarine programme cost?

Australia is in a similar position with a class of 12 submarines of a new design.
They have a similar population, GDP, and both haven't had a large competitive commercial shipbuilding industry in decades.

Total Cost of Ownership is a minimum of 88 Billion AUD, based on a 30 year service life.
That works out as 63 Billion USD, which is roughly 2 Billion USD per year.

In comparison, Taiwan's military budget is only 11 Billion USD per year

And that doesn't take into account how the current Collins class has serious reliability and capability issues.



NB. Annual operating cost for a Collins class is 105 Million AUD
I think it's not beacause the price.Collins is a huge conventional powered submarine with 3000t dispalcement to adapt to Australia's long coastline. A smaller one like type 209 maybe more suitable and economical to Taiwan.
The greatest problem is which coutry will sell submarine to Taiwan under the huge political pressure.None.Almost every coutry's gov has admitted that Taiwan is a part of China and gov of PRC is the only legal goverment of China.
 

Lama

New Member
Registered Member
Actually Taiwan has some submarines.Two submarine made in Holland in 1980's.And two Gubby made in America(very old).I'll post some photos later.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think it's not beacause the price.Collins is a huge conventional powered submarine with 3000t dispalcement to adapt to Australia's long coastline. A smaller one like type 209 maybe more suitable and economical to Taiwan.
The greatest problem is which coutry will sell submarine to Taiwan under the huge political pressure.None.Almost every coutry's gov has admitted that Taiwan is a part of China and gov of PRC is the only legal goverment of China.

The Collins are bigger yes, but Australia has the benefit of better technology transfer than Taiwan does.
 
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