what do you guys think of the new Afghan strategy?

pla101prc

Senior Member
If the Afghanistan problem buck is passed, its more than just Pakistan's and Russia's, but India and China will also be affected.

i am in doubt that China and India will be able to (or want to) get involved as much as Russia and Pakistan though. its a pretty messy scene there and judging by how Beijing usually does things, they;ll prolly let other countries do all the dirty works.
 

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
As some of you may be aware, I have been posting at length since July about the contest between the US/NATO and SCO/CSTO for domination of Central Asia.

I think it is now safe to assume that Obama has recognised that the US will always be a strategic disadvantage in Afghanistan and that any broad Geopolitical gains will come at a too high a price and only sacrifice other US interests in theatres where they would otherwise still enjoy an advantage.

Reading the official releases from the region, it is clear that Moscow and Beijing have had a strong hand in setting the surge agenda and that their own policies for the region for 2011 and beyond and now running in tandam with Obama's exit strategy.

Last weeks statement from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs puts this as plainly as it has been expressed anywhere and also; most satisfyingly summarises the main points I have been arguing for months.

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The only sensible thing to do, long term, is to basically give up on Central Asia. Let China and Russia have it. It's their traditional area anyway. The US, and indeed the Anglo bloc, has always derived their power in large part from sea dominance. That counts for nothing in Central Asia. Central Asia's significance is totally overrated regardless. Allowing it to be in the SCO sphere of influence would not be terribly harmful to long term US interests.
 

pla101prc

Senior Member
US involvement in central asia stemmed originally from brzezinsky's geostrategic theory. that dude still wields some influence over the obama administration. but the US is beginning to turn away from the cold war approach. but i think China would rather have US maintain a weakened but substantial presence in central asia for sometime, afterall you do need somebody to keep the russians in check.
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
crobato: please enlighten us with a bit more clarity.

Afghanistan is also a hotspot for people seeking to "liberate" East Turkistan, aka Xinjiang.

Afghanistan historically, was a strategic spot for the Silk Road, and histories of vital prosperity of Chinese dynasties from the Han to the Tang flowed in and out of the region. For nearly a millennia, ancient China poured armies into the region to "pacify" (usually amounts to wholesale obliteration of the opposition) the Silk Road.

Central Asia may become a strategic market for China again, both for goods and natural resources. Afghanistan sits in the center of it. An unstable Afghanistan with fundamentalism and drug lords does not bode good for all members in that region. Its simply a major destabilizing factor. You don't want the next 911 to happen on a Chinese city.
 

pla101prc

Senior Member
Afghanistan is also a hotspot for people seeking to "liberate" East Turkistan, aka Xinjiang.

Afghanistan historically, was a strategic spot for the Silk Road, and histories of vital prosperity of Chinese dynasties from the Han to the Tang flowed in and out of the region. For nearly a millennia, ancient China poured armies into the region to "pacify" (usually amounts to wholesale obliteration of the opposition) the Silk Road.

Central Asia may become a strategic market for China again, both for goods and natural resources. Afghanistan sits in the center of it. An unstable Afghanistan with fundamentalism and drug lords does not bode good for all members in that region. Its simply a major destabilizing factor. You don't want the next 911 to happen on a Chinese city.

which is why China is keeping its hands off of afghanistan. i wouldnt be surprised if China has some undertable deals with some terrorist groups to keep their mutual threat at a minimum level, afterall the terrorists too do not want to mess with every single major power there is. i suspect they already have the ability to carry out major attacks in China, they just havent done it because they dont have the incentive. (if i have to bet a million dollars i'd bet that there has been deals made to keep things calm during important occasions such as the olympics and 60 anniversary)
 

ABC78

Junior Member
I think part of the strategy in Afghanistan to eradicate the poppy crops is somewhat a wasted effort. After seeing a story on World Focus about trying to eradicte the poppy crops that help finance the Taliban. These eradication campaigns hurt mainly the poor farmers since poppies bring in more money than any other crop.

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A recomended solution is to legalize the growth of poppies but not the production of opium. Poppies can be used for many other things other than making recreational drugs. Pain killers like morphine and codeine can be made from poppy. And it's kind of BS since countries like India, Australia, Turkey, France and Spain are legally growing poppies. Plus we should be conducting more ambushes and raids when the Taliban come to collect the poppies and handsomely reward the farmers who help the US inform or plant tracking devices in the poppies turned over the Taliban. This could be an oppurtunity to kill three birds with one stone. Paying farmers well to improve economic growth, killing members of the Taliban and choking of one of their revenue streams.

But this is only my opinion based upon the info I've read or seen.
 

pla101prc

Senior Member
I think part of the strategy in Afghanistan to eradicate the poppy crops is somewhat a wasted effort. After seeing a story on World Focus about trying to eradicte the poppy crops that help finance the Taliban. These eradication campaigns hurt mainly the poor farmers since poppies bring in more money than any other crop.

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A recomended solution is to legalize the growth of poppies but not the production of opium. Poppies can be used for many other things other than making recreational drugs. Pain killers like morphine and codeine can be made from poppy. And it's kind of BS since countries like India, Australia, Turkey, France and Spain are legally growing poppies. Plus we should be conducting more ambushes and raids when the Taliban come to collect the poppies and handsomely reward the farmers who help the US inform or plant tracking devices in the poppies turned over the Taliban. This could be an oppurtunity to kill three birds with one stone. Paying farmers well to improve economic growth, killing members of the Taliban and choking of one of their revenue streams.

But this is only my opinion based upon the info I've read or seen.

i dont think ambushing the taliban is such a bright idea, you are playing a game that taliban does better than NATO soldiers. and the idea of getting civilians to put tracking devices in the poppie carts is just gonna invite revenge upon the civies, i consider that pretty inhumane and politically unreliable.
 

Pointblank

Senior Member
I think part of the strategy in Afghanistan to eradicate the poppy crops is somewhat a wasted effort. After seeing a story on World Focus about trying to eradicte the poppy crops that help finance the Taliban. These eradication campaigns hurt mainly the poor farmers since poppies bring in more money than any other crop.

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A recomended solution is to legalize the growth of poppies but not the production of opium. Poppies can be used for many other things other than making recreational drugs. Pain killers like morphine and codeine can be made from poppy. And it's kind of BS since countries like India, Australia, Turkey, France and Spain are legally growing poppies. Plus we should be conducting more ambushes and raids when the Taliban come to collect the poppies and handsomely reward the farmers who help the US inform or plant tracking devices in the poppies turned over the Taliban. This could be an oppurtunity to kill three birds with one stone. Paying farmers well to improve economic growth, killing members of the Taliban and choking of one of their revenue streams.

But this is only my opinion based upon the info I've read or seen.

There are a couple of other crops that can grow in Afghanistan that do bring in more money than poppies... saffron is one of them (have you seen the prices that are commanded by real saffron?), pomegranates, pistachios, almonds, etc. Afghanistan in the past before the recent wars was the world's leading exporter of raisins, a major exporter of apples, apricots, sweet melons, dates, and nuts.

The key is to provide Afghan farmers an alternative source of income; crops like saffron, pomegranates, and almonds grow very fast, have very high yields and command very high prices, above that of poppies. There is very high demand for Afghan almonds, pomegranates, sweet melons and dates in the region, especially from India and the Middle East. Providing the proper tools, credit, and know-how to Afghan farmers will help combat opium production in the region, and will ultimately help provide self-sufficiency for Afghanistan as a nation.
 

pla101prc

Senior Member
just lost four Canadian soldiers and 1 jounalist in the last days of last year.

but the bombing that killed 7 CIA agents was quite devastating, especially considering the fact that they were thinking about making the suicide bomber an informant...this kind of stuff only adds to the distrust between ANA and the coalition. its almost like, you know what the taliban want (mutual distrust) but there is nothing you can do to avert that...
 

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
but the bombing that killed 7 CIA agents was quite devastating, especially considering the fact that they were thinking about making the suicide bomber an informant...this kind of stuff only adds to the distrust between ANA and the coalition. its almost like, you know what the taliban want (mutual distrust) but there is nothing you can do to avert that...

I think the ISI had something to do with that bombing. How did the Taliban know that out of all the FOBs in Khowst province that one had a large CIA presence? How did they go about establishing contact, earning trust etc. to get this bomber inside the base without being checked. When CIA personnel die, it's rarely random chance. Its just sort of a feeling I have that the ISI was behind this bombing, based on what I know. There's plenty of elements within the ISI and Pakistan's security community that protect the Taliban, and this bombing would be them sending a message to the CIA: stay away from our proxies.
 
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