what do you guys think of the new Afghan strategy?

pla101prc

Senior Member
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basically its a afghan version of surge, 30000 extra troops and a promise to start withdrawing by 2011...makes sense since the guy who drafted it (patreus) is the same guy who drafted the iraq surge.
that timeline of 2011 gives me a pretty bad feeling though. it sorta allows the Taliban to wait it out against the US...moreover, being a year before the election, obama doesnt really have much choice but to go on with that plan when it is due. so if they dont fix this stuff up in 2 years, its gonna be pretty tough.

not sure if there is an afghanistan thread, if there is please move this to that thread.
 

Scratch

Captain
I actually think that was long overdue. In counterinsurgency and nation building, you can't just sweep through an area, defeat your enemy and than see what happens.
These operations require presence throughout the country. Initially, you have to make up for every policeman and any other law enforcement personal.
Right now, security personall are spread far to thinly. It's just chasing the bad guys out of one county and them fleeing into the next were they take controll, and so on, and on ...
You have to be so all over the place that your opponent has nowwhere to hide.
I gues right now the situation is so difficult that a surge is much less likly to succed that six years ago, because opposition has had a lot of time to organize itself.
I think they try to make Afghanistan somewhat safe and stable for two more years to allow a credible and somewhat efficient ANA and ANP force to be built wich can take over in 2 years time.
 

pla101prc

Senior Member
i agree that a surge may help secure a greater territory, but building an afghan force to take over in 2 years? i am in serious doubt.
 

rhino123

Pencil Pusher
VIP Professional
Actually, as you see the scenario is kind of like what had happen in Vietnam. And I kind of predict that once the US force withdraw, and no external help was provided, Afghan government will fall pretty quickly. Once the Americans completely withdrew from the country, Vietnam is completely overrun in 55 days. and immediately after the last of American official presence left South Vietnam, the government surrendered.

And I think the same will happen to Afghan... might not be as fast as how South Vietnam falls, but will be in similar fashion.
 

pla101prc

Senior Member
its perplexing to witness how talibans fight though. when they engage with the coalition forces, they seems to stick around til the other side calls in airstrike and then they sustain heavy casualty. why dont they just take off when its so obvious that there is nothing to gain from continuing the fight? these are supposed to he experienced fighters, but they dont seem to demonstrate the tactical expertise i expected from them. and i just dont know why they keep on going after those well fortified FOBs and everything. i saw this video showing helicopters go in and out of the FOB to deliver necessities to the troops, yet the taliban would attack the FOB, but not the helicopter...honestly, use your head.
 

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
All the earlier posters have hit the nail on the head as regards Afghanistan, but I reckon the Key is Pakistan. The intelligence agency army politicans arent marching to the same beat.and the place is so F........d. the place could yet disintergrate, thus causing a bigger headache for the Chinese and Americans.
 

Pointblank

Senior Member
its perplexing to witness how talibans fight though. when they engage with the coalition forces, they seems to stick around til the other side calls in airstrike and then they sustain heavy casualty. why dont they just take off when its so obvious that there is nothing to gain from continuing the fight? these are supposed to he experienced fighters, but they dont seem to demonstrate the tactical expertise i expected from them. and i just dont know why they keep on going after those well fortified FOBs and everything. i saw this video showing helicopters go in and out of the FOB to deliver necessities to the troops, yet the taliban would attack the FOB, but not the helicopter...honestly, use your head.

The average insurgent in Afghanistan isn't very bright... they are usually picked off the street, and have little to no combat training against a well-equipped foe, and are often considered to be little more than cannon-fodder for the Taliban. Some of the foreigner fighters, such as the ones from Chechnya, they are more capable and combat trained. Much more brighter, smarter, combined with tons of experience.
 

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
The average insurgent in Afghanistan isn't very bright... they are usually picked off the street, and have little to no combat training against a well-equipped foe, and are often considered to be little more than cannon-fodder for the Taliban. Some of the foreigner fighters, such as the ones from Chechnya, they are more capable and combat trained. Much more brighter, smarter, combined with tons of experience.

Yes, a lot of the foreign ones and the more experienced ones are the guys that have been trying to overrun the most isolated of American outposts in the Hindu Kush. Which is not the strategy most likely to produce a tactical victory, but if you succeed even once, the propaganda value would be quite large.

On the subject of Taliban fighting skills, they don't seem to be very good marksmen, nor are they nearly as good with explosives as the Iraqi insurgents are/were. They're not as reliant on bombs as the Iraqi insurgents, and aren't afraid of a gun battle (although they've been learning to avoid them). They seem to like to use IEDs against vehicle convoys, and try to swarm smaller units and positions if they get the chance.

I'd like to see stats on how many engagements are initiated by NATO or by the Taliban respectively, as percentages of all combat.
 

pla101prc

Senior Member
The average insurgent in Afghanistan isn't very bright... they are usually picked off the street, and have little to no combat training against a well-equipped foe, and are often considered to be little more than cannon-fodder for the Taliban. Some of the foreigner fighters, such as the ones from Chechnya, they are more capable and combat trained. Much more brighter, smarter, combined with tons of experience.

its not so much of a problem with individual training, its the leadership. they need to have a comprehensive strategy as well as consistent tactics. like Mao's guerilla warfare, if read his books he talks about the organization, tactics and everything in detail. i dont know if the Taliban has that kind of stuff but even if they due its certainly not been implemented very well.
 

solarz

Brigadier
its not so much of a problem with individual training, its the leadership. they need to have a comprehensive strategy as well as consistent tactics. like Mao's guerilla warfare, if read his books he talks about the organization, tactics and everything in detail. i dont know if the Taliban has that kind of stuff but even if they due its certainly not been implemented very well.

The Taliban have nowhere near the central command structure and organization that the CCP had. Mao's guerilla warfare was formidable because he had absolute authority (not to mention superb generals, an extremely popular ideology, and a keen strategic mind).
 
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