US Navy & PLAN - South China Sea Situation News (Closed)

Jeff Head said:

So, based on all of this, I will change the first part of this thread to China's even more (IMHO) audacious claim of the whole area as its "territorial waters," and that the US has chosen now to use FON within the 12-mile limit for artificial islands per international law to punctuate its own FPON claims.

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In general, I'm sympathetic to China's SCS land claims. It's with that in view I say Beijing is intentionally vague about it's territorial claims in the 9-dash line so they could have both maximum influence in the SCS, while at the same time claim the mantle of international law. It's great for China if it could get away with it. However, before you could have rabbit stew, you first have to catch it. So, whatever else US FON operations serve, they do make that point clear; China doesn't have the rabbit, yet.

Bltizo said:

I see the US as being interested in pre-empting any possible Chinese claim that the reclaimed islands have a 12nmi limit, by conducting FON operations.

I believe China, OTOH, is reacting negatively not because the US is interested in challenging any 12nmi claim but rather because the US is sending military vessels and aircraft in an unfriendly way, within waters that China claim as part of its EEZ.

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I made the change according to the claim we know that China has made...ie. that the South China Sea is its territorial waters.

That is their claim and so I changed the thread to that claim.

The US has long since tested FON and the EEZ outside of 12 miles with its naval vessels. This was not viewed as "unfriendly," but nonetheless tested the claim and was meant to establish FON.

I cannot see how testing one is unfriendly, when the other is not. To say it is "unfriendly," IMHO is not an issue for such protests. Either the PRC has a right to the 12 miles around such artificial islands, or it does not. IMHO, friendliness, does not enter into it.

So now, the US is intent on establishing FON within 12 miles. That's what the US is doing in the absence of a specific claim (at least that we can find) to the 12 mile limit.

Which would be (in the absence of the claim) the US pre-empting a specific claim, although in claiming the whole of the area, by default the PRC is also claiming 12 miles.

The US, for these specific reclaimed islands, is punctuating FON for that too now.

Jeff Head said:

I made the change according to the claim we know that China has made...ie. that the South China Sea is its territorial waters.

That is their claim and so I changed the thread to that claim.

The US has long since tested FON and the EEZ with its naval vessels. THis was not viewed as "unfriendly," according to you, but none the less tested the claim and was mant to establish FON.

Now they are pushing it within 12 miles. That's what the US is doing in the absence of a specific claim (at least that we can find) to the 12 mile limit.

Which would be (in the absence of the claim) the US pre-empting a specific claim, although in claiming the whole of the area, by default the PRC is also claiming 12 miles.

The US, for these specific reclaimed islands, is punctuating FON for that too now.

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I disagree.

I will describe my logic to you. I believe that for China, the specific 12nmi line is not very important, but rather it is the overall intentions and the actions of the USN vessels and the proportional to the distance at which the USN vessels or aircraft are near to the reclaimed islands, which is more important.

That is to say, if the US had suggested it wanted to make a passage only 13nmi away as a show of force, unrelated to any 12nmi limit which may or may not exist, China would still likely react negatively and in a similar way, on the basis of the intentions of the USN vessels and it would be close enough to the reclaimed islands within the EEZ such that it would be interpreted as a threat. If the USN had conducted such operations at greater distances (such as in the case of USS Fort Worth a few months back), then China may have been willing to let it slide and not perceive it as a threat because the intentions of the ship were not deemed unfriendly and were far enough away from the reclaimed islands to be considered not unfriendly.

Your position, OTOH, seems to be that there is a black and white line at 12nmi which China considers as friendly versus unfriendly, whereas I'm saying it is a continuum from the shores of the reclaimed islands to the extent of China's EEZ (whatever it might be)

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As for China claiming the entire SCS as its territorial waters, while that is technically reflective of the words they have said in the past, I think it is a stretch for us to try and believe that they actually mean everything within the nine dash line falls under their legal jurisdiction of territorial waters.
While it is useful to mention it, I think we should also state that there is substantial ambiguity from China's SCS policy, and we don't know where China's position on many details actually are.

Bltizo said:

I believe that for China, the specific 12nmi line is not very important, but rather the overall intentions and the actions of the USN vessels, and is proportional to the distance at which the USN vessels or aircraft are near to the reclaimed islands.

That is to say, if the US had suggested it wanted to make a passage only 13nmi away as a show of force, unrelated to any 12nmi limit which may or may not exist, China would still likely react negatively...

,,, China may have been willing to let it slide and not perceive it as a threat because the intentions of the ship were not deemed unfriendly and were far enough away from the reclaimed islands to be considered not unfriendly.

Your position, OTOH, seems to be that there is a black and white line at 12nmi which China considers as friendly versus unfriendly, whereas I'm saying it is a continuum from the shores of the reclaimed islands to the extent of China's EEZ (whatever it might be)

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Whatever it is, IMHO, China needs to make clear what its intentions are with respect to such limits.

Vague, touchy feely notions and what someone "thinks," will not do. Those can change with the wind.

The international norm is 12 miles for continental and natural islands. But not for artificial islands. That is something that is clear and easy to understand no matter how someone may interpret intentions.

The US is simply asserting its own agreement with that international norm when it comes to FON.

IMHO, that is really what is going on here.

At the same time, I believe both sides wanted to avoid unpleasant circumstances. So the US announced its intentions in the clear and in advance...what day it would occur and with what vessel. I believe they probably even let the PRC know what specific islands.

The PLAN knew the US Navy was coming, and had an escort waiting there for them to shadow them through it all.

The US did its "FON" thing, the PRC duly protested.

Having said that, I believe we have both made out positions clear. I see no need for a long drawn out discussion over the intricacies of those positions so will simply let it stand at that.

Jeff Head said:

Whatever it is, IMHO, China needs to make clear what its intentions are with respect to such limits.

Vague, touchy feely notions and what someone "thinks," will not do. Those can change with the wind.

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I agree.

The international norm is 12 miles for continental and natural islands. But not for artificial islands. That is something that is clear and easy to understand no matter how someone may interpret intentions.

The US is simply asserting its own agreement with that international norm when it comes to FON.

IMHO, that is really what is going on here.

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I also agree.

At the same time, I believe both sides wanted to avoid unpleasant circumstances. So the US announced its intentions in the clear and in advance...what day it would occur and with what vessel. I believe they probably even let the PRC know what specific islands.

The PLAN knew the US Navy was coming, and had an escort waiting there for them to shadow them through it all.

The US did its "FON" thing, the PRC duly protested.

Having said that, I believe we have both made out positions clear. I see no need for a long drawn out discussion over the intricacies of those positions so will simply let it stand at that.

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The original point which I was contesting was the statement that China had claimed a 12nmi territorial line around each of the reclaimed islands... that statement has now been changed to "he PRC claims the whole of the waters around all of these islands, reefs and shoals in the South China Sea as its "territorial waters," including any 12 mile limit normally attached to such territorial claims."
I believe that it is accurate to say China has claimed the entire SCS as its "territory," but I do not think there is any evidence as of yet to suggest they mean this in currently accepted legal times, and there is also no evidence to suggest they have explicitly defined a 12nmi limit attached to the reclaimed islands.

In other words, I think it is also worth adding that there is substantial ambiguity and uncertainty as to the extent of China's actual territorial claims and its position on what is defined as territorial waters or not.
Something like "China has performed massive reclamation work on seven reefs in the south China Sea and created large islands in their place. The PRC has claimed the whole of the waters around all of these islands, reefs and shoals in the South China Sea as its "territorial waters," however the precise extent and legal definition of the claim is still substantially ambiguous, and the PRC as of present has not officially described any claim of a 12nmi territorial boundary around any of its reclaimed islands."

In other words they are bluffing hoping no nation will call that bluff in which the US did and now PRC is pondering how to respond to other nations that may do the same.

SamuraiBlue said:

In other words they are bluffing hoping no nation will call that bluff in which the US did and now PRC is pondering how to respond to other nations that may do the same.

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No, China is not bluffing. Available evidence, direct and indirect, show just the opposite. China will continue to build up its SCS holdings and chip away at US credibility.

It's a great power contest to see who leads Asia, and we're seeing history being made.

SamuraiBlue said:

In other words they are bluffing hoping no nation will call that bluff in which the US did and now PRC is pondering how to respond to other nations that may do the same.

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Well I see it as China deliberately seeking to make its claims ambiguous so that it is able to deflect any actions that other sides take without implicating its own claims.

In the case of the reclaimed islands itself, other nations can try to do the same as what the US did, but that'll likely result in China sending some of its own coast guard and naval ships to do similar actions against other claimants more frequently, and possibly give China the excuse to militarize the islands.

SamuraiBlue said:

In other words they are bluffing hoping no nation will call that bluff in which the US did and now PRC is pondering how to respond to other nations that may do the same.

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Think about it. Now US directly challenges it. China can double down and could start militarization in those island, saying foreign military ships are too close therefore need to build up to protect itself just in case. It gives the excuse for China to militarize those islands.

And it could resume more land reclamations on existing islands or could start project on new ones.

Blackstone said:

No, China is not bluffing. Available evidence, direct and indirect, show just the opposite. China will continue to build up its SCS holdings and chip away at US credibility.

It's a great power contest to see who leads Asia, and we're seeing history being made.

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Agreed, that's what's happening. And US will risk relinquishing it's power and influence in the region if it does not react. I hope for everyone's sake this doesn't get uglier, but unfortunately it could.

Also, China's end goal here is to have hegemony in the region. China's South China Sea buildup is part of its move to use hard power to dominate its backyard. Even if US was not involved in here, other countries like Japan who would not want to be under a Chinese hegemony will eventually come to challenge China here. Of course China does not like US involvement, but the smaller countries around South China Sea also do not like China's buildup.

And on a side note, whether China knows it or not (my guess is that it does), it's totally taking advantage of US media/political coverage of ignoring anything that does not have to do with Middle East.