US Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

Discussion in 'World Armed Forces' started by tphuang, Mar 24, 2006.

  1. zaphd
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    zaphd New Member
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    PCA at the moment is a technology maturation and demonstration program, and thus not directly comparable with the B-21. The bomber is also much less ambitious and a lot of work and money had gone into it before contract award. When you include the R&D for the cancelled next generation bomber it was around a few billion according to the contract announcement press conference. So eight years from today is not a credible date for PCA IOC. The figure the Air Force has been floating is around 2030, and in aerospace the schedule often, if not always, moves to the right.
     
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  2. Air Force Brat
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    Air Force Brat Brigadier

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    Yep, I'm gonna go with Terran's timeline here! the Raptor 2.0 has a lot to commend it with a proven airframe and proven performance in excess of its near peers,,, I'd would like dispense with OVT and go for more efficiency and thrust, the Raptor is more than capable without OVT, OVT just provides an awesome Pitch Rate!, but after watching the F-35's "tactical pitch" at RIAT, these birds are already at the top of their class....
     
  3. anzha
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    anzha Junior Member
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    The funding profile would argue rather differently. It's following the same trajectory as the B-21 and has the same people (or at least office) in charge. If it walks like a duck and quacks like one...
     
  4. Jura
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    Jura General

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    would you provide some links:

    my #1 google search
    (PCA+us+air+force)
    hit is
    U.S. Air Force Next-Generation Fighter Taking Shape
    blah blah blah Aug 23, 2017 http://aviationweek.com/defense/us-air-force-next-generation-fighter-taking-shape
     
  5. anzha
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    anzha Junior Member
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    NGAD Budget:

    http://www.dtic.mil/descriptivesum/Y2019/AirForce/stamped/U_0207110F_4_PB_2019.pdf

    LRSB Budget:
    http://www.dtic.mil/descriptivesum/Y2014/AirForce/stamped/0604015F_4_PB_2014.pdf
    http://www.dtic.mil/descriptivesum/Y2016/AirForce/stamped/0604015F_4_PB_2016.pdf
    http://www.dtic.mil/descriptivesum/Y2019/AirForce/stamped/U_0604015F_4_PB_2019.pdf

    The LRSB started with a baseline of $300M (+/-) annual through FY14. Then a jump to $900M FY15. When we had a jump to $1.2B and a contract award. Since then it has grown to $1.3B FY17, $2B FY18, $3B FY19 continuing until FY23 when it falls to $2.4B. FY24 is when the IOC is supposed to be done for the B-21. Supposed to be.

    Now then.

    http://www.dtic.mil/descriptivesum/Y2019/AirForce/stamped/U_0207110F_4_PB_2019.pdf

    NGAD goes from $23M in FY17 to $294M FY18 to $500M FY19. FY20 is projected to be $1.3B. FY21, $1.9B. FY22, $3B. FY23, $2.9B.

    That pattern ought to look really, really familiar. The NGAD just jumps up faster, probably because they are not planning on shifting gears like the LRSB had to. Based on the budget numbers, I'd guess a contract award in FY21, possible, but not likely to be in FY20.

    Anyone can browse through the budget here:

    http://www.dtic.mil/dodinvestment/#/browse

    As a reference, the US Navy's Next Gen Fighter Budget just sorta dorks around at $5M:

    http://www.dtic.mil/descriptivesum/Y2019/Navy/stamped/U_0605285N_6_PB_2019.pdf

    Now as for what the aircraft will be, I'll get to tomorrow. Getting a bit tired and its affecting my google-fu.
     
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  6. Jura
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    Jura General

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    this post is actually cool
     
  7. Jura
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    Jura General

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    Jun 25, 2018
    while now (dated Aug 29, 2018) B-52 Readied For Intense Hypersonic Weapons Test And Deployment Role http://aviationweek.com/defense/b-52-readied-intense-hypersonic-weapons-test-and-deployment-role
     
  8. anzha
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    anzha Junior Member
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    Thank you.

    I am a bit pressed for time this morning, but let me do this first.

    *IFF* the same schedule is followed, then we would see a CDR by FY23. Then we see public prototypes pdq, within a year or two. Probably two. Then the EMD will be short. MUCH shorter than the F-35 or F-22. 4 to 5 years tops. We have a fighter in IOC no later than 2030 and I better sooner. The reason i think sooner is because the USAF seems to know where its going with this with the budget trajectory. Otherwise, it would have a flatter budget for longer doing demos and whatnot. Likewise, the RCO is helping run the show just like it is for the B-21. They have almost a Black World approach to getting things done rather than the nominal USAF procurement process.

    I'm not going to address what the NGAD/PCA might be right now. That's going to require some google-fu that will take more time. Instead, it's consider the timeline for a F-22C.

    This would be a coproduce with the Japanese so we would need to have an agreement banged out with them. That will take at least a year (see all the agreements that have been worked on for the KF-X). Likewise, the Japanese will need to actually select the FrankenRaptor for its new fighter. That's probably another year or two more. The 22C will need time to do an EMD. Let's say 3 years, to be generous. Then we get a ramp up of production. Call it 20 the first year, then 20, 40, 60 and then 80 for two years and a ramp down, 40, 20, done. Let's go with the fastest possible schedule. The soonest this could start would be FY20. The Japanese selection and US negotiation finish FY22. The EMD is finished in FY25. Production starts and the first 22Cs are paid for in FY26, but get delivered in FY27. Production is finished in FY34. The Japanese want 70. The US would get the rest, 290. +/-, I'm rushing. The total production cost would be $61.2B over 14 years. This is the best case scenario and it beats out the NGAD by 4 years tops, possibly much less or even ties it depending on development issues, contract/negotiation issues and if the NGAD can go faster than the B-21.

    A similar problem hits the F-15X. It will go faster, has less risk and will 'only' cost $26B for 400 fighters compared to the 22C's $61B for 360. The 15X will get ahead of the NGAD for sure, but it wouldn't be more than 6 years....and...wouldn't it simply be better to up the order of F-35s and order some more tankers in the mean time?
     
  9. asif iqbal
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    asif iqbal Brigadier

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    Oldest F22 Raptor back in service after 6 years in storage

    First flight in 2001 it’s 17 years old
     
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  10. Jura
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    Jura General

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    as I can see, you're new here LOL

    money-related posts are generally ignored here (except if they showed what, ehm, enthusiasts had claimed) , so ... you're welcome

    LOL a good question, if F-35s are such marvels, why not to get even more of them
     
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