The MIVD’s impression was that the Separatists were trained to use weapon systems, including MANPADS, in the Russian Federation. There were no indications that they were being trained to use powerful anti-aircraft systems. The Separatists’ training in the Russian Federation came to light as a result of the press conference given by General Breedlove, Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) of NATO, on 30 June 2014. Breedlove stated that Separatists on the Russian side of the border had been trained to use vehicle-borne air defence systems. He also stated that the Americans had not yet observed that these systems were being transported across the border to Ukraine. These
statements contained little new information for the MIVD. The terms ‘vehicle-borne capability’ and ‘air defence vehicles’ are generic and are also used to refer to short-range anti-aircraft systems.
On 14 July 2014, an An-26 military cargo aeroplane (referred to hereafter as: the Antonov), belonging to the Ukrainian airforce, was shot down. The Ukrainian authorities reported the event the same day in a briefing with Ukraine’s presidential administration in Kiev. The MIVD also received a concise report
of the briefi ng from the Dutch Defence attaché. The report revealed that the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Klimkin, declared that the situation in the east had reached a new and dangerous phase because the Russian Federation was now openly providing the Separatists with military support. As an example of the escalation, Klimkin cited the Antonov’s being shot down in the area of Lugansk. Klimkin reported that the Antonov was flying at an altitude of 6,200 metres and could only have been hit with Russian equipment, because the Separatists did not possess this kind of anti-aircraft systems.
According to a media report on 14 July 2014 (which the MIVD possessed), the Ukrainian authorities stated that the aeroplane was flying at 6,500 metres and was not shot down by a portable anti-aircraft system but by a more powerful system. This was probably carried out from Russian territory. In the media, the Separatists claimed that they had shot down the aeroplane and taken some of the crew prisoner.
If the Antonov had indeed been shot down by, or even from, the Russian Federation, this would have been a game changer. Direct Russian participation in the conflict would have become a fact. That is why the MIVD immediately launched an investigation into the incident. In the morning of 17 July 2014, the MIVD communicated the results of this investigation in its daily intelligence summary (‘dagintsum’), which had a number of users, including the NCTV and the AIVD. The MIVD assessed it to be unlikely that the Antonov had been shot down by a powerful anti-aircraft system (separate from the question whether this had been carried out from Russian territory). From pictures of the wreckage and eyewitness accounts it was clear that the aeroplane’s right-hand engine had been hit and that 5 to 6 parachutes had subsequently appeared. The Antonov had allegedly crashed only then. On this basis, the MIVD concluded that the appearance of the damage was not consistent with a hit by a powerful anti-aircraft system. The aeroplane would in that case probably have been destroyed in the air. The crew would probably not have survived if this had been the case. According to the MIVD, the wreckage and the eyewitnesses supported the fact that the aircraft was shot out of the air by a MANPADS from Ukrainian territory. This would only have been possible if the Antonov were flying substantially lower than 6,200 or 6,500 metres. Another possibility was that a short-range, vehicle-
borne anti-aircraft system had been used. The MIVD’s information does indicate the use of a powerful anti-aircraft system.
On 14 July 2014, the Ukrainian authorities publicly issued a NOTAM, which meant that Ukrainian airspace was closed up to a height of 9,700 metres (FL320). The MIVD did not receive any information regarding the reasons for this restricted airspace.
