Ukraine Revolt/Civil War News, Reports, Data, etc.

delft

Brigadier
My Dutch newspaper,
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, writes today in a very short article on p.15 that the failed president of Georgia, Saakashvili, made governor of the Odessa region by Poroshenko because he has no Ukrainian friends that are not corrupt, has fired halve of the civil servants of the city of Odessa.
Helft ambtenaren in Odessa ontslagen
AMSTERDAM. In de Oekraïense havenstad Odessa heeft de nieuwe
gouverneur, voormalig president Saakasjvili van Georgië, de helft
van zijn ambtenaren ontslagen en een zestal diensten opgeheven.
Saakasjvili werd door de regering in Kiev benoemd om het apparaat
in een van de corruptste steden van Oekraïne te saneren. President
Porosjenko achtte landgenoten daartoe niet meer in staat. (NRC)
This is unlikely to improve the calm in the city.
 
Thud, on May 24 you predicted "the Ukrainian offensive any day now"
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/uk...s-reports-data-etc.t7103/page-110#post-342812
...
Well, it is almost certain to happen any day now (unless something dramatically changes on diplomatic front) . Ukraine again amassed more then 40 000 troops , over 300 tanks and over 900 other armored vehicles in the region. Something is bound to happen by the end of June or in the beginning of July .

how's it going? I'm asking because I just read Ukrainian accounts awaiting Separatists offensive ... any day now
plus I've read at the site of "Cassad" something dramatic has been going on in Donetsk this week, with the "caretaker"
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personally present since yesterday ...
plus this enigmatic article by "El Murind":
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thunderchief

Senior Member
Well, I hope I was wrong and that peace will prevail .

What really happened in last few weeks is a very tense situation between Right Sector formations and Ukrainian government . There were even reports about armed clashes between Right Sector and police far from front lines in western Ukraine . As a consequence of that , looks like certain number of Right Sector units left combat zone in eastern Ukraine and moved towards Kiev . That left some gaps in Ukrainian positions, and rebels could try to take advantage of that with some local offensives .

But sincerely, I doubt Kremlin would allow something big to happen right now . I still think Moscow wants to wrap this thing down, and achieve some kind of agreement with current government in Kiev . Of course, I could be wrong . Maybe, behind the curtains, Moscow managed to amplify differences between Right sector and Ukrainian authorities to gain advantage, but this theory look unprovable and improbable right now .
 

delft

Brigadier
While the Kiev regime is quarrelling with some of its supporters and the economy is going down the drain its prestige in the country is going down too. Then IMF is promising to support it despite the fact that is contrary to its own rules, just as financing the Greek government in 2010 was against those rules. The Greek developments make rules violations by IMF more difficult. So it makes sense for the Donbas people to continue to defend themselves and await developments in Kiev.
 

Zool

Junior Member
The following from June speaks to just that, the "Quagmire" of explaining the decision to strong arm an ally (Greece) with regard to further IMF support, while keeping a seemingly open line to Ukraine.

So long as funds go toward legitimate and sustainable economic utilities and benefit the general citizenries quality of life, I say fund Ukraine & Greece both. But the conflict and destruction of civilian life in the East needs to come to a permanent close.

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One week ago, we were stunned to learn just how low the political organization that is the mostly US-taxpayer funded IMF has stooped when, a day after its negotiators demonstratively stormed out of the Greek negotiations with "creditors", Hermes' ambassador-at-large Christone Lagarde said that the IMF "could lend to Ukraine even if Ukraine determines it cannot service its debt."

In other words, as Greece struggles to avoid a default to the IMF on debt which was incurred just so German banks can remain solvent and dump trillions in non-performing loans to US hedge funds and Greek exposure, and which would result in the collapse in the living standards of an entire nation (only for a few years before an Iceland-recovery takes place, one which Greece would already be enjoying had it defaulted in 2010 as we said it should), and as the "criminal" IMF does everything in its power to subjugate an entire nation, or else let it founder, the
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that no matter if they default to its private creditors (in fact please do since Russia is among them), the IMF would keep the debt spigot flowing.

Courtesy of the US taxpayer of course.

Fast forward one week when, with Greece one step closer to a full-blown financial collapse, the IMF comes out and tell Ukraine - which already passed a law allowing it to impose a debt moratorium at any moment - not to worry, that even in a default it will keep providing unlimited funds.
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:



Ukraine's efforts to strike a debt restructuring deal with its creditors will allow the International Monetary Fund to continue to support the country even if the talks are not successful, the head of the IMF said on Friday.



"I ... welcome the government's continued efforts to reach a collaborative agreement with all creditors," IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in a statement. "This is important since this means that the Fund will be able to continue to support Ukraine through its Lending-into-Arrears Policy even in the event that a negotiated agreement with creditors in line with the program cannot be reached in a timely manner."

We will pass comment on this latest grand IMF hypocrisy and ask if Greece would rather be in Kiev's place which at the behest of "Western" leaders, it sold, liquidated, and otherwise "lost" all of its gold. Or, like Ukraine, Athens is willing to part with its $4 billion in gold just to appease the Troika as it
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to unknown buyers. A transaction which would buy Greece about 3-6 months of can kicking and a few stray smiles from Chrstine Lagarde.
 
Well, I hope I was wrong and that peace will prevail .

What really happened in last few weeks is a very tense situation between Right Sector formations and Ukrainian government . There were even reports about armed clashes between Right Sector and police far from front lines in western Ukraine . As a consequence of that , looks like certain number of Right Sector units left combat zone in eastern Ukraine and moved towards Kiev . That left some gaps in Ukrainian positions, and rebels could try to take advantage of that with some local offensives .

But sincerely, I doubt Kremlin would allow something big to happen right now . I still think Moscow wants to wrap this thing down, and achieve some kind of agreement with current government in Kiev . Of course, I could be wrong . Maybe, behind the curtains, Moscow managed to amplify differences between Right sector and Ukrainian authorities to gain advantage, but this theory look unprovable and improbable right now .

thank you, and since I don't like leaving loose ends, but I do like history :) I would appreciate answers related to June 3 Marinka fights; questions I asked
Jun 10, 2015
this calls a question why Separatists went there? I mean on a tactical level (no need to conspire about G7 meeting LOL), was it a "combat recon" (разведка боем) going not as expected? first I said "bad" instead of "not as expected", but then I realized you seemed to be considering the June 3 Marinka fights the Separatists' victory ... or Pyrrhic victory of Ukrainians maybe?

you know, soon after those fights you presented here triumphant announcements of Separatists (later I've read the 450 KIA figure then announced by
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coincides with the average daily Wehrmacht losses at the peak of Stalingrad fights :)
and at about the same time I was watching a video of Ukrainians going door-to-door in that village in the morning of June 4, I mean I don't want to jump to any conclusions, I just wonder
 

delft

Brigadier
A year after the destruction of MH17 my Dutch newspaper NRC (
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) publishes an article about the situation in Ukraine on page 17 by the editor who much earlier was correspondent in Moscow.
He begins with the situation in the Western part where Pravy Sector cannot be kept down by Kiev and is living from smuggling and corruption. He then points to struggles between groups of oligarchs for which armed gangs are used that are also used against the rebels in the East. Kolomoiski lost his governorship of Dnepropetrovsk in these struggles but the government was not willing or able to get rid of such a corrupt politician.
Next he points to the political advantage to Kiev of the destruction of MH17 but says that this doesn't extent to financial matters. IMF paid $5b but threatens to not pay another $12.5b if there are no reforms of pensions and house rents. Parliament is afraid the impoverish the population further so that looks difficult.
He then mentions the numbers of people killed and injured and those that fled their towns or are otherwise in great trouble.
Last he mentions plans by Poroshenko to declare to be terrorists those armed gangs that do not accept the authority of the government. but he doesn't expect a useful outcome of such a move.

All this in a paper that is generally pro-Kiev and anti-Russian.
 

Miragedriver

Brigadier
Cities in war: trends and challenges of urban combat

By: Katarina Svitková

Urban combat is as old as cities themselves. Urban centers have always been strategic places given their economic, demographic, infrastructure and symbolic importance. The image of a city captured, recaptured, looted, burned and built again it is inherent in military history.

However, many military doctrines considered classic urban combat as a last resort. According to Sun Tzu, the worst policy is to attack cities, which is still true today, given the amount of collateral damage usual in this type of transaction. And as the world becomes more urbanized, so do conflicts.

1FxD8yY.jpg

Many of the revolutions of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries took place in cities, logically that those were points of concentration of the population, mobilization and power. However, the really emblematic of the urban environment battles took place during World War II. The battles of Stalingrad, Berlin and Manila triggered the subsequent development of military doctrines focused especially in urban combat.

During the Cold War, an urban guerrillas intensified their activity in several countries in Latin America, opposed by police and military forces. Independence movements with anti-colonial schedule took initiative in Palestine, Algeria, Cyprus and Ireland, forcing regular campaigns to develop an urban counterinsurgency forces. Some iconic battles took place in Hue, Vietnam in 1968 and the city of Suez in 1973.

The military events of the 90s led to believe that Western military forces were invincible. That assumption was fundamentally questioned after the episode in Mogadishu in 1993 and the military disaster in Grozny (in this case Russian forces) in 1994. The military and political strategists realized that military superiority - technology does not lead automatically to a successful when the regular forces are forced to fight armed groups in dense local and unknown cities.

After those events, the military focused attention even more necessary to fight in cities capabilities. This trend continued until September 2001. The war in Afghanistan temporarily diverted attention to mountainous and rural areas, but later the Iraq war and a decade later, urban revolutions in the Arab world and recent developments in Ukraine Iraq, Syria and Yemen are once again indicating the growing importance of cities for the analysis and management of conflict.

See Part 2


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