055 DDG Large Destroyer Thread

[MwRYum]

hmmm, considering Chinese economy is kind of in "trouble", it may delay some of new "toys" planned in 2016 to 2017/2018. I think the world economy (including China) is slowing down and may start picking up again in 2017.
But who knows, this may seen as a huge opportunity by PLA to build a lot of new warship as a stimulus economy package. Steel price is very low now, ~US$250-300 per tonne (from US$600), also oil and energy quite cheap

But whatever started this year should be bankrolled at least 2-3 years back, that means whatever in trouble should be those that slated for budgeting in the 2016-17 fiscal year lot.

That said, it's unknown as of now whether they've greenlighted the 055 DDG actual construction or not, because the superstructure mockup was only finished construction earlier this year.

 

[Blitzo]

That said, it's unknown as of now whether they've greenlighted the 055 DDG actual construction or not, because the superstructure mockup was only finished construction earlier this year.

I wouldn't necessarily try to extrapolate when the first ship may have started construction from the mock up's state of completeness, after all the mock up is there for EM testing rather than structural testing and we don't know how much of a delay the navy is putting in between the start of EM testing on the mock up and the actual at sea EM testing of the ship (whose timing will be dependent on the start of construction)

 

[SpicySichuan]

But who knows, this may seen as a huge opportunity by PLA to build a lot of new warship as a stimulus economy package. Steel price is very low now, ~US$250-300 per tonne (from US$600), also oil and energy quite cheap

I agree. China still has some rooms to increase its defense budget. According to IISS, China spends less than 2% of its GDP on defense, so it could totally maintain a double digit growth in defense spending for a decade, as long as there isn't a recession or collapse of the real estate market. If Russia can spend 4% (and increasing) of its GDP on defense amid Western sanctions and economic recession, then increasing defense spending shouldn't be a problem for China in the short to medium term.

 

[delft]

I agree. China still has some rooms to increase its defense budget. According to IISS, China spends less than 2% of its GDP on defense, so it could totally maintain a double digit growth in defense spending for a decade, as long as there isn't a recession or collapse of the real estate market. If Russia can spend 4% (and increasing) of its GDP on defense amid Western sanctions and economic recession, then increasing defense spending shouldn't be a problem for China in the short to medium term.

How should a collapse of the real estate market decrease the availability of people to build warships?

 

[SpicySichuan]

How should a collapse of the real estate market decrease the availability of people to build warships?

It is because real estate market still occupies a significant portion of the Chinese economy. Therefore, a collapse of the real estate market would meant a significant decrease in tax revenue.

 

[Jeff Head]

hmmm, considering Chinese economy is kind of in "trouble", it may delay some of new "toys" planned in 2016 to 2017/2018. I think the world economy (including China) is slowing down and may start picking up again in 2017.

It just depends on when the planning and implementation started, and how much money they have set aside.

For example, the Type 055, the new carrier, the new J-20, etc. each and everyone of those may be far enough along that we will see them now in 2016 despite the slow down.

It may be after they come along that the impact of the slow down hits...if at all.

We will just have to wait and see,.

 

[delft]

It is because real estate market still occupies a significant portion of the Chinese economy. Therefore, a collapse of the real estate market would meant a significant decrease in tax revenue.

But the state can create money to pay more than it gets in taxes and other incomes. That's what many countries do, even to excess. The US has been doing it for the last half century with the exception of only a few years in the '90's. And when that was not enough the Fed invented QE.

 

[Jeff Head]

Alright guys, that is enough about economics and then expanding it to compare to other nations.

This is the Type 055 Thread...not an economics thread.

We have Economics Thread on China and The US.

Take any more of that discussion there please.

DO NOT RESPOND TO THIS MODERATION.

 

[Jeff Head]

hmmm, considering Chinese economy is kind of in "trouble", it may delay some of new "toys" planned in 2016 to 2017/2018.

Josh...I may have tro reconsider my intial response.

Please see (and everyone, also discuss this) at the following link to the big news in the Chinese Economic Thread where China announces a devaluation of its curreny:

Chinese Economic Thread - Big News, China devalues Yuanhttps://www.sinodefenceforum.com/chinese-economics-thread.t3715/page-450#post-356928

 

[latenlazy]

It is because real estate market still occupies a significant portion of the Chinese economy. Therefore, a collapse of the real estate market would meant a significant decrease in tax revenue.

Funny, real estate seems to be on the rebound lately (though probably not for good reasons).

I'll present one point that suggests how fallacious it is to conclude China won't be able to procure military developments as quickly just because they're facing economic difficulty (and slowdown is NOT depression, China is facing a problem of below 7% growth, not negative growth). Did the US suddenly lose permanent procurement power every time it faced economic difficulty?