055 DDG Large Destroyer Thread

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Lethe

Captain
As for the PLAN I think a reasonable and sustainable annual build rate for surface combatants would be something like 1-2 cruisers, 2 destroyers, 4 frigates, 1 SSN, and 1-2 SSKs. This combined with its current burst production of surface combatants will make the PLAN a near-peer to the USN by the middle of the century, assuming nothing catastrophic happens (which it probably will).

Forget mid-century, even with accelerated retirements leaving 054A and 052C as the oldest and least capable major combatants in the fleet in 2030, building 4 destroyers and 4 frigates per year from 2017 would give PLAN more than 140 major combatants by 2030.

Needless to say, I do not expect this to happen.
 

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
Satellites and OTH radars can operate without disruption from threats in the air.

But for MPAs and UAVs to operate in airspace outside of China's coast and especially further out into the first island chain would require a degree of air superiority or at least a sustained presence of your own fighters to contest the skies at those sort of extended ranges.
Land based air power can fill part of that gap, especially with aerial refuelling, but carrier based air power can conduct CAP missions at a far greater distance, freeing up land based air power and aerial refuelling aircraft for a variety of other missions.
Then of course there's the ability to deploy ISR, AEW&C platforms from the carrier itself, as well as UAVs/UCAVs, and the strike role of carrierborne fighters too, which provide many roles beyond merely the aforementioned controlling airspace and allowing for MPAs and UAVs to safely operate.
Instead of "freeing up" land based fighters to defend the near seas, you could just buy more land based fighters in the first place. Instead of supplementing land-based sensors, you could buy more land-based sensors in the first place. The point of carrier-based fighters isn't to supplement land-based fighters, nor is it to supplement land-based sensors, except as a necessary and less than ideal compromise of the primary role of a carrier. Defending the homeland from an attack is in general less than an ideal use of carriers. And land-based fighters are plenty enough to protect UAVs and MPAs patrolling in the near seas. A naval air wing certainly doesn't guarantee air superiority just because it's flying from a carrier. And we're not talking about these UAVs flying thousands of km from shore; they are flying hundreds of km from shore where land-based fighters have plenty enough endurance to escort them around. There would also certainly be more of them available for escort duties than a carrier air wing.

I think carriers can sensibly operate in conjunction with AShMs, AShBMs, submarines, and UAVs, UCAVs, UUVs, and the unique role of carriers in a high intensity conflict is one which I think may be worth the investment which investment into only those other domains provide, even if (and perhaps even especially if) the majority of the carriers do not spend their much time on continuous at sea patrols.
The key is to strike a balance where you don't over invest on too many assets of one kind and too little in another that may reduce the overall combat effectiveness/combat capability of your force.
I don't tend to think of buying carriers primarily for home defense as a "balanced" investment, so much as it is a just plain "bad" investment, even in these pseudo-power projection scenarios where they supposedly force multiply land-based assets that could instead be force multiplied by other land-based assets that could be gotten for much cheaper. Pierside carriers for home defense is a concept I've never read anywhere else on the internet except on this very forum in this very thread.
 

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
Forget mid-century, even with accelerated retirements leaving 054A and 052C as the oldest and least capable major combatants in the fleet in 2030, building 4 destroyers and 4 frigates per year from 2017 would give PLAN more than 140 major combatants by 2030.

Needless to say, I do not expect this to happen.
By 2030, there would be ~14 055s, 46 052C/Ds, and 79 054A/Bs. Why is this an unreasonable number? Note that even by then the PLAN would only have 60 large surface combatants compared to the 87 that the USN has right now.
 

Totoro

Major
VIP Professional
Not counting 054a/b class as a decent surface combatant would be silly. With its ability to prevent enemy planes to fly over it (unless the 054 is neutralized first), with its decent ASW suite and ocean going capabilities - it is definitely a worthy platform. Much more so than US LCS, for example.

Question is - how much do we expect PLAN to expand in the next 20 or so years? From its current 250 thousand people to 300 thousand? Or even by a whole additional third, all the way to 340 thousand?
 

Lethe

Captain
By 2030, there would be ~14 055s, 46 052C/Ds, and 79 054A/Bs. Why is this an unreasonable number? Note that even by then the PLAN would only have 60 large surface combatants compared to the 87 that the USN has right now.

I will leave it to you to decide if such numbers in the 2030 timeframe are 'unreasonable' (for one thing I expect 055 to replace 052x in production going forward, not complement it) but the point is that they are already comparable with USN's current and projected surface combatant fleet. Yes, PLAN would still have fewer large combatants with less average capability (destroyers), but it would also have more medium combatants (frigates) with greater average capability. 054A vs. LCS is a joke, and even if USN's future "Small Surface Combatant" is comparable to 054B (which is a big 'if' given that LCS variants are apparently still in the running), it will arrive later and in fewer numbers than PLAN's future frigate(s).
 
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Lethe

Captain
Tonnage comparison between USN's surface combatants in 2017 and Iron Man's suggested composition for PLAN in 2030:

USN 2017
Ticos (22x9600) = 211k
AB1 (21x8315) = 175k
AB2 (7x8400) = 59k
AB2A (34x9200) = 313k
Freedom (4x3500) = 14k
Indy (4x3100) = 12k
Total = 784k tons

Iron Man's PLAN 2030
055 (14x12000) = 168k
052D/E (40x7500) = 300k
052C (6x7000) = 42k
054A/B (79x4000) = 316k
Total = 826k tons

So yeah, such a fleet would be comparable to USN. By 2030, not mid-century. Note the conservative assumptions for displacements of 055, 052E and 054B, and the omission of 056 and any prospective follow-on type.

Of course total displacement of USN surface combatants will increase over the next 13 years, probably by enough to overtake the numbers for PLAN given above. But certainly not by enough to move beyond "comparable".
 
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Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
I will leave it to you to decide if such numbers in the 2030 timeframe are 'unreasonable' (for one thing I expect 055 to replace 052x in production going forward, not complement it) but the point is that they are already comparable with USN's current and projected surface combatant fleet. Yes, PLAN would still have fewer large combatants with less average capability (destroyers), but it would also have more medium combatants (frigates) with greater average capability. 054A vs. LCS is a joke, and even if USN's future "Small Surface Combatant" is comparable to 054B (which is a big 'if' given that LCS variants are apparently still in the running), it will arrive later and in fewer numbers than PLAN's future frigate(s).
You expect a 12,000 ton cruiser to replace a 7,500 ton destroyer as the mainstay production unit for large surface combatants going forward? You are even more optimistic than I am. As for LCS variants, any such uparmed/uparmored frigate variant that incorporates at least an 8-cell Mk 41 and 2 quadruple launchers for Harpoon, LRASM or other missile will be at the very least a match for the 054A, though not likely for the 054B. But this is certainly a short term interim solution for a real frigate replacement, which the USN is actually looking at as part of its Future Surface Combatant program; this does not include the LCS, but will look at what types of ships (large and small) the USN will need in the 2030s timeframe.

Tonnage comparison between USN's surface combatants in 2017 and Iron Man's suggested composition for PLAN in 2030:

USN 2017
Ticos (22x9600) = 211k
AB1 (21x8315) = 175k
AB2 (7x8400) = 59k
AB2A (34x9200) = 313k
Freedom (4x3500) = 14k
Indy (4x3100) = 12k
Total = 784k tons

Iron Man's PLAN 2030
055 (14x12000) = 168k
052D/E (40x7500) = 300k
052C (6x7000) = 42k
054A/B (79x4000) = 316k
Total = 826k tons

So yeah, such a fleet would be comparable to USN. By 2030, not mid-century. Note the conservative assumptions for displacements of 055, 052E and 054B, and the omission of 056 and any prospective follow-on type.

Of course total displacement of USN surface combatants will increase over the next 13 years, probably by enough to overtake the numbers for PLAN given above. But certainly not by enough to move beyond "comparable".
Why would you limit tonnage comparisons to just surface combatants like cruisers, destroyers, and frigates? By doing this you erroneously elevate PLAN's overall effectiveness compared to the USN, as if a cruiser/destroyer/frigate comparison that compares closely somehow implies equality between the PLAN and the USN by 2030. Such a "fleet" would most certainly NOT be comparable to USN when you include carriers, subs, fighters, etc.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Here's my take on the 2030 surface fleet in commission

Basically Type-52D production ends now and is replaced by Type-55 at 3 per year.

Plus Type-54/57 stay at 2 per year rather than ramp up to 4 per year. There simply is no need for an excessively high number of frigates when that money would be better spent on more AEGIS destroyers for higher intensity sea control duty.

055 (31x12000) = 372k
052D/E (13x7500) = 97k
052C (6x7000) = 42k
054/57 (50x4000) = 200k

Total = 701k tons

Of course, this is based on China's current economy and military spending.

But by 2020, China's economy would presumably be about 20% larger than today, and support a larger end fleet size. Then I think the following plan would increase Type-55 production (with IEP/lasers/railguns?) to 4 per year from 2025 onwards.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
You expect a 12,000 ton cruiser to replace a 7,500 ton destroyer as the mainstay production unit for large surface combatants going forward? You are even more optimistic than I am. As for LCS variants, any such uparmed/uparmored frigate variant that incorporates at least an 8-cell Mk 41 and 2 quadruple launchers for Harpoon, LRASM or other missile will be at the very least a match for the 054A, though not likely for the 054B. But this is certainly a short term interim solution for a real frigate replacement, which the USN is actually looking at as part of its Future Surface Combatant program; this does not include the LCS, but will look at what types of ships (large and small) the USN will need in the 2030s timeframe.


Why would you limit tonnage comparisons to just surface combatants like cruisers, destroyers, and frigates? By doing this you erroneously elevate PLAN's overall effectiveness compared to the USN, as if a cruiser/destroyer/frigate comparison that compares closely somehow implies equality between the PLAN and the USN by 2030. Such a "fleet" would most certainly NOT be comparable to USN when you include carriers, subs, fighters, etc.

I certainly expect the Type-55 to replace the Type-52D. You just get a lot more bang per buck with a bigger and more cost-effective hull, along with a single set of expensive electronics. Plus IEPS, lasers, railguns and UAV/UUV all favour the larger Type-55 hull.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
Forget mid-century, even with accelerated retirements leaving 054A and 052C as the oldest and least capable major combatants in the fleet in 2030, building 4 destroyers and 4 frigates per year from 2017 would give PLAN more than 140 major combatants by 2030.

Needless to say, I do not expect this to happen.
Why not? China intends to become a mature major global naval power by 2050 if we're going by their white papers. 140 is only about halfway there, and they have more nearby water that they have to actively defend given the number of neighbors they have, so maybe we should expect an active fleet with more tonnage.
 
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