Type 002 (CV-18) Carrier News & Discussions

Discussion in 'Navy' started by Jeff Head, Aug 1, 2016.

  1. Iron Man
    Offline

    Iron Man Captain
    Registered Member

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,920
    Likes Received:
    2,542
    IMO the longer term the rumors are, the more tenuous they are. I will personally withhold judgment until some years from now.
     
  2. Bltizo
    Online

    Bltizo Moderator
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2008
    Messages:
    12,377
    Likes Received:
    15,614
    Hmm, based on my observations, I think for PLA watching the longer term the rumours are the more likely they are to be real IMO.

    Certain details might change, such as exact figures, or even the name of certain projects, but the existence of projects with long term consistent rumours usually tend to bear fruit.


    Of course, for the nuclear carrier project we will know in a number of years just what the gameplan will be, but the current "rumour stage" for it is about appropriate and consistent for similar past big ticket projects that have ended up producing the goods.
     
    bruceb1959 likes this.
  3. Iron Man
    Offline

    Iron Man Captain
    Registered Member

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,920
    Likes Received:
    2,542
    Then we will just have to agree to disagree on the likelihood of long term rumors.
     
  4. Bltizo
    Online

    Bltizo Moderator
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2008
    Messages:
    12,377
    Likes Received:
    15,614
    Sure; that said I'm genuinely curious about which past examples of other long term rumours in your opinion causes long term rumours to be deemed as more tenuous than short term rumours.

    I'm not going to contest them as I don't want to sidetrack the thread too much, but I'm definitely interested in any past/current examples that inform your view towards long term rumours, for my own curiosity.
     
  5. Iron Man
    Offline

    Iron Man Captain
    Registered Member

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,920
    Likes Received:
    2,542
    Can't think of any off hand, but I think it's reasonable to assume the general principle that the more distant the timeline, the less certain the facts.
     
  6. Bltizo
    Online

    Bltizo Moderator
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2008
    Messages:
    12,377
    Likes Received:
    15,614
    Okay, I appreciate the outline of your reasoning.
     
  7. Red Moon
    Offline

    Red Moon Junior Member

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2009
    Messages:
    454
    Likes Received:
    126
    Not to keep an argument going forever, but while @Bltizo is speaking about rumors that have existed for a long time, @Iron Man is referring to current rumors about things a long way into the future. You are talking past each other.
     
    N00813 likes this.
  8. Deino
    Offline

    Deino Brigadier
    Staff Member Super Moderator

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2005
    Messages:
    9,742
    Likes Received:
    25,000
    :)

    Via @红色金银潍 from Weibo

    PLN Type 003 carrier - 20190906.jpg
     
    Appix, Nill, Josh Luo and 6 others like this.
  9. Bltizo
    Online

    Bltizo Moderator
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2008
    Messages:
    12,377
    Likes Received:
    15,614
    To clarify, when I talk about "long term rumours" I'm talking about rumours that first appeared a long time ago, but which have since then received continuous indications over the years that the original rumour was still "active" usually in the form of acknowledging that it is still active, or sometimes describing predictions for how far the project has moved along (in domains such as subsystems, construction predictions, projected timetable, etc).

    I.e.: my "long term rumour" is not merely a rumour that appears once a long time ago and then we never hear from them again -- but rather a rumour that appears a long time ago but which over the years we have received indications that it is still active and/or progressing.


    For example, we had rumours of 003 back in the late 2000s of a conventional Kitty Hawk sized conventional carrier that the PLAN was working on.

    Between the late 2000s/early 2010s to now it was certainly a long term rumour in the sense that back in the late 2000s/early 2010s it was predicting a ship that would only emerge quite a few years later. However between then to now in 2019 we received continuous updates for the project, including giving us a name (002 and then 003 to replace it), giving us a clearer idea as to how big it would be, giving us clearer ideas as to what sort of catapults it would use, giving us a clearer idea as to where it would be built and when we could expect to see pictures of it by...

    .... and now in 2019 when we are actively able to follow its construction with pictures.

    This was all the cumulative result of rumours that originated a long time ago but which were kept up to date by rumours confirming that it was still active and giving us progressively more information about the project as it progressed.


    For the nuclear carrier, it is a project that we've had rumours for a while going backwards into the past, but it is also a project which by the nature of its technology, is something that we will still have to wait some time until we see it emerge.
    I.e.: there are still additional rumours that we would expect to be given to us in coming years between now and when it eventually emerges (if it is developed).


    Just like how in the early 2010s we didn't have all the details about carrier 003 (then known as 002) and how we all knew it would likely take a long time for it to emerge, however the rumours at the time indicated it was a project that was still active and ongoing.
    The situation for the nuclear carrier at present as of 2019 is not too different.
     
    #3019 Bltizo, Sep 6, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2019
  10. Iron Man
    Offline

    Iron Man Captain
    Registered Member

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2015
    Messages:
    2,920
    Likes Received:
    2,542
    However you spin it, rumors aren't facts. If they were, they wouldn't be rumors in the first place. You make it sound like a nuclear carrier design is a done deal, and that the rumors about it might as well be official statements straight from the Chinese military. You also don't distinguish between rumors and speculation (and subsequent rumors based on earlier speculation), as no doubt some or many of these rumors likely are.
     
Loading...

Share This Page