Trade War with China

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by Ultra, Jan 27, 2018.

  1. localizer
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    localizer Junior Member
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    Heh this was what my pops said:
    Do you remember how painful the Tianamen sanctions were? This is nothing, China will get through it.
     
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  2. antiterror13
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    antiterror13 Colonel

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    Please elaborate what is your view to the conclusion that Iran war would be a catastrophic? (I agree with you, I just want to know your views)

    The US just simply send hundreds of cruise missiles randomly on Tehran buildings and after that Trump would declare a huge war victory. Land invasion is another matter, no way the US force would be able to control Iran .... heck even for a country like Afghanistan ... the US land force is practically useless
     
  3. Peter2018
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    Peter2018 New Member
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    For what birds is this extradition bill designed for?
    We probably will see GM and Japan car manufacturers being shut out of the Chinese market, while opening the vehicle market further to European manufacturers.
     
  4. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Senior Member
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    There is no way that Iran will just take hundreds of cruise missiles hitting its territory.

    In response, does Iran send hundreds of missiles back at the US naval forces in the Persian Gulf?
    Or hundreds of missiles at the US bases in Saudi/Kuwait/Bahrain?
    Or does it mine the Straits of Hormuz and cut off Middle East oil exports? After all, Iran is blocked from selling its own oil, so why wouldn't it close the Straits?
    Or do militias and proxies attack hundreds of soft US targets in Iraq, Afghanistan and the rest of the Middle East?

    No land neighbour of Iran is going to allow its territory to be used by the US Army.
    So the options are a risky amphibious invasion of Iran, or the US Army invading Iraq and using it as a route to Iran.

    And even if they invade and conquer Iran, how does the US exit yet another counter-insurgency quagmire for 10+ years which will be worse than Iraq or Afghanistan.

    How does it end???

    There are too many neo-cons in the US government (like the Bolton the National Security Advisor) who keep thinking that they can use force to impose their views.

    Note that is just Iran. Just imagine what could happen in a US-China conflict
     
    #5234 AndrewS, Jun 13, 2019 at 5:04 AM
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2019 at 5:12 AM
  5. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Senior Member
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    The view from the Financial Times in London, which reflects the consensus view in Europe.

    Remember that Europe has a hi-tech economy which is larger than the US economy.

    And I think it would have made sense to point out that China does have a population some 4x larger than the US. That translates into a domestic market some 4x bigger for many products.

     
    #5235 AndrewS, Jun 13, 2019 at 6:07 AM
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2019 at 6:16 AM
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  6. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Senior Member
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    The results of wargaming the US-China trade war.

    The Chinese government almost certainly came to the same conclusions a few weeks ago.

     
  7. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Senior Member
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    I've just been thinking about Ark OS, which may be renamed to Oak OS.

    Outside of China, I think Huawei should stick with Ark OS from a marketing perspective, because Oak OS is a bland name with no particular meaning.

    But Ark OS evokes imagery of Noah's Ark, which is really powerful for the following reasons:

    1. Noah's Ark is one of the key stories in the Book of Genesis.
    2. The Book of Genesis is the foundation for the religions of Judaism and Christianity.
    3. So almost everyone hears the story of Noah's Ark from their parents/teachers as a small child.
    4. And what child isn't amazed at the story of surviving disaster and Armageddon, and then creating a new world.​

    That parallels what is happening with Huawei today.

    So the emotional imagery works both in the USA (where people are really religious) and in Europe (Which is is not that religious, but which bridles against many things American).
    It also works with other countries with a Judeo-Christian background.
    Edit. Come to think of it, it's also in the Koran, so add Islam to this analysis as well. Then you end up with 4.2Billion people out of 6.3Billion in the non-Chinese world.

    And on an intellectual level, a successful Ark OS will always serve as a reminder and also a warning to policymakers around the world.
     
    #5237 AndrewS, Jun 13, 2019 at 7:13 AM
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2019 at 7:23 AM
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  8. CMP
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    CMP Junior Member
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    They are idiots if they change from Ark to Oak. Ark carries such power and meaning to many people. Much more meaningful than “Android” or “iOS”
     
  9. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Senior Member
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    Looks like Trump is now in election mode.
    He'll be even more distracted and unpredictable than usual, whilst trying to win.
    On balance, this favours the Chinese in a trade war, although it means more unpredictability.

    Trump, Biden trade barbs amid dueling Iowa campaign visits
    https://www.apnews.com/336375d0b96841cb8f1775c7c2553a73

    Trump lashes out at polls that show 2020 re-election bid in trouble
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/12/trump-2020-presidential-election-polling-results

    Trump Says 'I'd Take It' if Russia Again Offered Dirt on Opponent
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/12/us/politics/trump-russia-fbi.html
     
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  10. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Senior Member
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    The latest on Trump's trade war and sanctions with Europe.
    Note that Europe has a larger economy than the USA.
    And that Germany drives EU policy.


     
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