Trade War with China

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by Ultra, Jan 27, 2018.

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  1. Peter2018
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    Peter2018 New Member
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    China should just conserve rare earths for its own use over next few centuries, rather than exporting them now.
     
  2. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Senior Member
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    Yes, an Iran war now would be catastrophic.

    But whether Bolton gets his Iran war is another matter
     
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  3. Josh Luo
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    Josh Luo Junior Member
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    I feel the Trump Administration's strategy is pretty much what a status quo power would always do. Make everyone insecure and accept your rule by forcing them to choose your side (in order to isolate the rising power) when you still possess an edge in material power to do so. Of course, no one cares about morality and rules of engagement under such a scenario. The Art of War by Sun Tzu and Mearsheimerian rules are what matter now. Games on!
     
  4. manqiangrexue
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    manqiangrexue Captain

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    Yes, that is correct, but with a small yet important addition: this is how superpowers behave when they are scared for their futures and watching their dominance unravel. A confident and strong superpower speaks gently but resolutely; the world follows its leadership by will and its lead is reinforced by policies of generous reward that the superpower is happy to give out. When this stops being the case, when the world becomes hard to convince and the carrot seems less and less effective, the unsettled superpower starts to speak louder and angrier, substituting "I believe that the correct choice is obvious and I wish everyone the best however they choose," with, "You must choose me; I insist! I am your friend and they are your enemy!" It starts to replace rewards with threats, going from, "Together, we can form a cohesive network of data-sharing for the global good," to "If you don't fall in line, we will cut you out of the circle!" This is where we are right now. As we near the death bell on a superpower's reign, the rhetoric will only grow increasingly unpleasant, desperate, and full of erratic foulness.
     
  5. Josh Luo
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    Josh Luo Junior Member
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    Agree with you, but there is still a high chance that the U.S. could reverse its so-called "relative decline," especially if the latter were successful in "murdering" China and its state-led economic institutions.
     
  6. CMP
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    CMP Junior Member
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    If murdering them is easy, it would already have been done during the Korean War. See, two can play at this game of speculation with no facts!
     
  7. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Senior Member
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    Uh no, the US can't reverse its relative decline.

    The US is already hi-tech and wealthy, and realistically can grow a maximum of 2.5% per year on average. In 12 years time, the economy would increase by 34%
    In comparison, China is still only a middle-income country. If China sustains a further growth slowdown to 6% growth per year, the economy will DOUBLE in the same 12 years.

    And going forward, we'll likely see India sustaining high growth (6%) and end up with a larger economy than the US in the coming decades/
    The average rate of non-US growth is overall significantly higher (4%?) than what the US can achieve.

    So there is no way that the US can prevent its relative decline in the coming years.

    But it will be a difficult adjustment for the US to acknowledge that it is just another country in the world.
     
    #5217 AndrewS, Jun 12, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2019
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  8. manqiangrexue
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    manqiangrexue Captain

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    "IF"

    - Spartans (350BC), in response to King Philip II of Macedon when he threatened, "You are advised to submit without further delay, for if I bring my army into your land, I will destroy your farms, slay your people, and raze your city."
     
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  9. xiabonan
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    xiabonan Junior Member

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    Spanish cities to get 5G service from Huawei, amid US blacklist of Chinese tech giant

    https://www.straitstimes.com/world/...uawei-amid-us-blacklist-of-chinese-tech-giant

    "
    MADRID (DPA) - Chinese telecoms giant Huawei is set to roll out its 5G service in several Spanish cities on Saturday (June 15), making it one of the first European countries with the ultrafast mobile phone network.

    Vodafone Espana will bring the network to 15 cities on Saturday in cooperation with the Chinese company, which is blacklisted by the United States, chief executive Antonio Coimbra announced earlier this week.

    In addition, Sweden's Ericsson will be providing the hardware for the data network."

     
  10. xiabonan
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    xiabonan Junior Member

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    I think it has become extremely clear to other European countries by now: if you don't use Huawei, you'll lag behind others who use it.
     
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