Trade War with China

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by Ultra, Jan 27, 2018.

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  1. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Senior Member
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    No, international transactions don't have to use the USD or go through US networks.

    Half of all Swift transactions aren't in USD.

    And there are international networks run by Unionpay, Alipay and WeChat
     
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  2. Josh Luo
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    Josh Luo Junior Member
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    Yes, but do you happen to know what is taking so long for Beijing to come up with a rare earth ban? Is that a realistic option to hit back? Would such a move provoke "America having no choices but the military option?"
     
  3. Jura
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    Jura General

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    please look at disgusting

    #5191 LesAdieux, Today at 10:37 AM

    #5195 CMP, Today at 12:33 PM

    they're like hornets against one debater
     
  4. Biscuits
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    Biscuits Junior Member
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    Hard to coordinate the entire government to act on something. Usually, central, regional and local governments just do their own thing and picks the path of least resistance when it comes to dealing with eachother. Power goes from the bottom to the top, so even if the top wants to do something, it’s worthless if they can’t convince everyone at the bottom. It takes time to convince all of them.

    Because people’s livelihoods haven’t been noticeably impacted, it’s even harder to get local government to care about the conflict.

    However, the central government has (seemingly) managed to rally everyone to at least know about the American threat and be willing to work on a larger scale to halt it, and that’s a big step compared to yesteryear.

    Trump’s government is able to react as quickly as Trump speaks through executive orders. Even in the worst case, something might take congress approval. But the drawback is that they don’t necessary have much support behind their decisions, since they haven’t taken time to consult everyone.
     
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  5. Josh Luo
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    Josh Luo Junior Member
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    The is high, and the emperor is far away. Always a problem when it comes to coordination between government branches in China.
     
  6. manqiangrexue
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    manqiangrexue Captain

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    Josh, I think you need to read and follow some other threads which have already discussed the rare earth situation and Huawei's plans to survive in depth. You're basically bringing up those already discussed topics for discussion again here.

    Regarding rare earths: https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/can-the-us-derail-2025.t8530/page-2

    It's not a coordination problem; China's government is fast-acting for sure. They hold a meeting in ZhongnNanHai with CCP officials, and it's done. It's that this is a little too big a weapon to use. It's kinda like a nuke; to ban rare earths would cause incredible global disruption and turn everyone against China just as China got the moral high-ground over the US over the Huawei incident. This might still be resorted to if China were really crunched by the trade war/tech ban, to crunch the US similarly but when China is ready and it's got a fine plan ahead, it doesn't have to resort to this. No country would ever use a nuclear weapon against someone who they can defeat by conventional forces and that's why China's leaving the rare earth ban at home.

    Also, since China's talking about it, it looks a little more like a head-fake rather than a real move as a real move should be kept silent until the last moment of announcement to inflict as much damage as possible. Here, it can cause some fear and panic in the US; they might start pitching their resources hurriedly into rare earth production, which won't really materialize for about 2 years, then they realize they've wasted their investment for nothing as China keeps underselling them and they have to close shop again or continue to government-subsidize operations that aren't really needed.

    It's certainly not about war. China's not Afghanistan; you can't beat down nuclear China for its rare earths like you can beat down Afghanistan to rob its oil. Plus, after a Chinese ban, the US wouldn't be 100% cut off; they would just experience ugly shortages and have to invest huge amounts of money to go around looking for little bits of product. It would badly hamper them but it wouldn't grind the US industries to an absolute halt. The war option like how the US oil embargo pushed Japan to attack is not a usable tactic in a world of MAD.
     
    #5206 manqiangrexue, Jun 12, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2019
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  7. Jura
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    Jura General

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    now I read
    Commentary: China's trade growth strong enough to resist external pressure
    Xinhua| 2019-06-12 16:26:51 http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-06/12/c_138137223.htm

     
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  8. styx
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    styx Junior Member
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    so china is now looking forward to a protracted trade war, so NK is looking forward to build more nuclear warheads and icbms, and iran is looking to pursuit uranium enrichment and nuclear bombs. Trump is a genius, all he is doing is to make the world more dangerous for us, militarily and economicaly
     
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  9. localizer
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    localizer Junior Member
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    You can see the hawks are trying to pick a war with Iran to reassert dominance and remind the world who's the boss.
     
  10. styx
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    styx Junior Member
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    i think that a US war on iran will be the tomb of american power. Too hard nut to crack for us
     
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