Trade War with China

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by Ultra, Jan 27, 2018.

  1. LesAdieux
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    LesAdieux Junior Member

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    the guy thinks and reasons like a badly abused sex slave, full of fear, all she knows is that if she doesn't do whatever she is told, she will face grave consequences, and she is willing to do whatever to avoid that.
     
  2. Just4Fun
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    Just4Fun New Member
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    1) Americans are angry because the US is in decline. When a country / company / family is in the course of decline, few people will be happy. Be sympathetic and be more sensitive.

    2) The reasons why Trump killed TPP was not purely his love of job creation as he claimed. He kill it mainly because it is a multiparty treaty. From Trump's prospective, a multiparty treaty is far more difficult to manage than a bilateral treaty in his trade deficit fight. Trump's ultimate goal (but also unstated goal) is to match each country's export surplus quota with its economic size. In this way, the US can force each country to reduce its exports to the US according to their bilateral trade treaty. Therefore, the US will be trade deficit-free forever, thus the dollar can be world currency forever.

    It sounds fantastic, but will only be a pipe-dream in reality. The biggest problem of this bilateral treaty regime is that it may in fact hurt dollar hegemony badly. The US's total market capacity is too small in relation to the total output of world economy. Those who are not allowed to export their products to the US market to their export potential will naturally search for other markets to export, and those who need imports for their economic development will buy no matter who sell. This will stimulate the setup of extra-US markets, and extra-US markets will encourage the use of none-dollar currencies. This in turn will weaken dollar's position as a world currency, loosing dollar's control to world trade.
     
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  3. B.I.B.
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    B.I.B. Senior Member

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    @Josh Luo
    Im surprised you have not noticed the 'Is the US shooting itself in the foot by banning Huawei' thread.
    Yo0u should spend some time reading through the thread thorooughly and you will find the points raised by the writer of the above article delt with completely..
    There are also associated threads which are worth visiting .
     
  4. Anlsvrthng
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    Anlsvrthng Senior Member
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    The "free market " is not a magic word that make a country rich.

    It is even not necessary to have the "planned economy" on the opposite end of spectrum.

    In the CCCP planed economy everyone know what to do.

    In a non planed economy no one know what to do from a central authority, only how.

    Now, the difference between Nigeria , USA and Switzerland is the rules of how, and the enforcement of them.


    However, practically there is no "free " economy, the dominant / monopolistic market participants can keep all potential entrepreneur and the workforce of them in-house, out of the reach of market forces, and can "plan" what to do and how, so the works of the IT markets, or wall mart, amazon , google , retail banking and so on is more similar to the works of CCCP than to a free market.

    The rules and enforcement of market dictate the advancement level of an economy, NOT the "freeness " of it.

    The US / UK is an attractive target of investment due to the cheap , simple and efficient legal system and background, not because there is more freedom to start a business than say in Yemen .


    I saw the above in work many time in companies employing of 1000s.

    IF the value stream of the company is relativly simple, and one person can understand it then he/she can manage it with moderate efficiency, and can run the business with profit.

    But time passed , and more product with more complexity, common processes and so on joined the company, and the complexity of system reach a level when the best genius can not understand it any more.

    And the business collapsing, the profitability fall, quality problems arising.

    The solution for this is to create internal rules and ways to run the business, so not to tell what to do, only how, and the job of managers should not be to tell what to do every day/week, bot how to do ( training and supervision development rather micro/macro management of activities ).


    This kind of stuff is the reason of efficiency differences between the Chinese/ USA/UK/Polish/French/Russian companies.
     
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  5. CMP
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    CMP Junior Member
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    Josh Luo seems here just to spread Western propaganda while taking it at face value and implying we should too. His Western upbringing appears to have colonized his mind, rather than spark enlightened skepticism.
     
  6. Biscuits
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    Biscuits Junior Member
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    China has widened the trade deficit gap, and data indicates most damage from the trade war has been tanked by US consumers followed by US producers. America has momentum on it’s side, but not much else. The attack on Huawei has so far been an embarrassing failure, and Trump has also alienated the Silicon Valley lobby.

    While China has been slow to respond (probably due to legal quagmire), it is now moving on the way towards cutting off America’s critical imports, a move far more devastating than any disruption against Chinese factories in America Trump can perform, as sectors across the board (such as pharma, electronics and EV) are reliant, rather than lone companies.

    The current trade war is only slightly in China’s favor, but this is with America applying maximum pressure and China only responding with minimum pressure. Once the relevant legal framework is laid down, it is unlikely that America can resist maximum pressure.

    The greatest danger is that an overreaction in the trade war could lead into America having no choices but the military option. US military is still far larger, and as WW2 has shown “wonder weapons” and technology is not necessary enough to hold back against a much larger force. Unlike Germany through, China has a vibrant industry backing it up. Neither does it lack manpower, so at least in theory, it would not suffer the same sort of shortages.
     
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  7. PanAsian
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    PanAsian Major

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    People need to remember the underlying issues of the downsides/flaws and social impacts of global trade/finance/economics, power politics and governance, wealth/opportunity inequality, etc. all exist both internationally and within countries, it is both unsurprising yet still disappointing to see the most powerful/wealthy countries, elites handling these issues poorly/insufficiently/not handling them rather choosing to let these problems fester and have more conflict instead.
     
  8. MrCrazyBoyRavi
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    MrCrazyBoyRavi New Member
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    Regarding huwawei OS and appstore. Lets say even if huawei manage to create OS and appstore , Can’t US simply block the payment system for huawei appstore for international users? Since all international transcation has to go through US banks and institutions.
     
  9. Biscuits
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    Biscuits Junior Member
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    No one ever uses an US bank anymore, Americans citizens become unable to purchase outside of their country, the US enters into a Great Depression that makes the original one look like a boom.
     
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  10. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Senior Member
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