Trade War with China

Status
Not open for further replies.

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
The US can threaten with sanctions all they like. I doubt China or India will stop importing oil from Iran.

If US somehow totally embargoes Iranian oil the Iranians will just shutdown the Strait of Hormuz.
This is a naked US attempt to start a conflict with Iran. If they succeed it will cripple the world economy.
I doubt other countries will allow them to do it.

For example India has pretty good relations with Iran because they see it as a counter to Pakistan's influence in the region and as a source of less expensive oil. China has other oil suppliers but it's the principle of the thing. If they allow the US to shut down Iranian oil exports who is to say the US won't use the same power to block their oil imports next instead?

Exactly, the point is that the US is not the world's policeman, judge and jury! It shouldn'
Iran is not going to be trading oil in USD, if they trade it in yuan, or euro or any other currency, what is the US going to do about it? Also, US do not have the right of applying domestic law to international transactions. At most US can ban Chinese oil companies from using SWIFT or buy US crude, then they will just shoot themselve in the foot. The end of Petro dollar is the end of US dollar as a reserve currency.

The arrest of the CFO of Hauwai shows that US does and can apply domestic law onto international transactions.
Let's not forget that for US sanctions to be effective, US requires all the major economies to comply.
In the past, it was easy as the major economies were on US side.
In today's world, economies like the BRICS countries have a much larger stakes in the global economies. And this economies have more independent view in the world.
As such, sanctions from US will not be so effective if these countries don't comply.
We will be seeing more of this strong arm tactic from the US in the future.
 

zgx09t

Junior Member
Registered Member
Iran is not going to be trading oil in USD, if they trade it in yuan, or euro or any other currency, what is the US going to do about it? Also, US do not have the right of applying domestic law to international transactions. At most US can ban Chinese oil companies from using SWIFT or buy US crude, then they will just shoot themselve in the foot. The end of Petro dollar is the end of US dollar as a reserve currency.

Or gold.
Looks like this summer is shaping up to be an interesting one.
Ongoing violence in Libya with Donald just announcing his support for Hafta which really is an interesting angle. Venezuela and Iran are sanctioned. Permian has pipeline issues to quickly rump up and meet shortfalls. Saudis can't do anything until late June, if at all. US is still a net importer despite a mix of exports. Besides China, Japan, SoKo, Taiwan, India are on the hook, so-called allies and partners of US.
This tariff and sanction business is really a fun to watch. Certainly Donald wouldn't want a sticker shock at the pump during summer driving time. All it would take is one eia draw down report. It looks like China still has some room in copper oil ratio.
 

Navigator

New Member
The US can threaten with sanctions all they like. I doubt China or India will stop importing oil from Iran.
If US somehow totally embargoes Iranian oil the Iranians will just shutdown the Strait of Hormuz.
This is a naked US attempt to start a conflict with Iran. If they succeed it will cripple the world economy.
I doubt other countries will allow them to do it.
For example India has pretty good relations with Iran because they see it as a counter to Pakistan's influence in the region and as a source of less expensive oil. China has other oil suppliers but it's the principle of the thing. If they allow the US to shut down Iranian oil exports who is to say the US won't use the same power to block their oil imports next instead?

Unfortunately, India has actually admitted that it is subject to US sanctions and stops importing oil from Iran.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

It did not even help that Iran agreed to accept 100% of the payment in Indian rupees. The United States threatens to cut off all buyers of Iranian oil from the financial system, freeze their property, etc. This is pure blackmail, but unfortunately it turns out to be very effective.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
I was watching some analyst say that China can use this opportunity to reign in Iran for its BRI. Trump will use this to get concessions in the trade war in exchange for waivers for China.
 
Sunday at 9:19 PM
related to the article right above is
Texas cancer center ousts three over Chinese data theft concerns
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
now
Scientists with ties to China ousted from US cancer center amid fears of foreign influence

Updated 4:10 AM ET, Thu April 25, 2019
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

A leading cancer research center in Houston, Texas has taken action against a handful of faculty members for sharing confidential information and failing to disclose foreign ties, according to statements from the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center.
According to documents and statements reviewed by CNN, five scientists at the institution were flagged by the US National Institutes of Health -- which funds biomedical research across the country -- "regarding a variety of threats, including data security and intellectual property loss," according to a
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
by the cancer center.
Internal investigations revealed a number of infractions of ethics policies and, in a few cases, possible grounds for criminal prosecution, according to compliance reports summarizing the probes carried out by officials within MD Anderson and the University of Texas system. The reports described cases of sharing confidential information surrounding research grants, as well as foreign interests, collaborators and payments the scientists had not disclosed. In many cases this was traced back to Chinese institutions. MD Anderson said the breaches did not include patient information.
The cancer center has moved to terminate three of the scientists, two of whom resigned before that process could run its course. For the third, those proceedings are ongoing, according to an e-mailed statement from the cancer center's president, Dr. Peter W.T. Pisters.
Of the other two researchers who were flagged, one investigation "indicated non-compliance yet did not meet a threshold to begin the termination process," Pisters said. The other investigation is still in progress.
Issue broad in scope
The NIH told CNN in an email that, while MD Anderson took immediate action, the issue is broader in scope: The agency has contacted 55 institutions with concerns about foreign influence as of April 11. Each of these institutions has at least one scientist identified in the concerns. However, the NIH is not commenting on specific cases.
"These incidents are not unique to MD Anderson," the agency said in a statement, "and we remind universities to look closely at their organizations to mitigate unscrupulous practices by foreign entities."
The investigation at MD Anderson has been brewing for some time. According to Pisters, the FBI formally notified the institution of a "national security investigation" back in 2015.
The FBI declined to comment. The investigations were first
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
by the Houston Chronicle in collaboration with Science Magazine.
'Foreign influence'
Officials worry overseas influence could sway funding decisions and redirect American intellectual property into foreign hands.
In August 2018, NIH Director Dr. Francis Collins sent a letter to more than 10,000 research institutions which had received or applied for NIH funding, warning that "some foreign entities have mounted systematic programs to influence NIH researchers."
Days later, MD Anderson received a notice from the agency about one of its researchers. Others would follow.
"We are deeply concerned about the evidence, which has been growing over the course of more than a year, that there are egregious instances where our funding of grants in this country is being taken advantage of by individuals who are not following the appropriate rules," Collins told a Senate Appropriations subcommittee on April 11. "We have had multiple opportunities to interact with the FBI, who has been investigating this vigorously."
It was as a result of what the FBI discovered that researchers at 55 institutions are now believed to be "double-dipping, receiving foreign government money without disclosing it, or in some instances, diverting intellectual property ... to China," Collins said. "Maybe most egregiously of all," he added, some researchers who peer-review grants have been accused of distributing those materials during the review process, "giving, therefore, an opportunity for somebody else's ideas to be stolen."
While evidence of this occurring were outlined in MD Anderson's redacted compliance reports -- including unauthorized sharing of grant materials, receipt of foreign money and involvement in research overseas -- it is yet unclear how much this might have impacted the course of NIH funding decisions and to what extent it's reflective of the agency's "foreign influence" concerns when it comes to China as a whole.
The reports, which were redacted and provided to CNN by MD Anderson, reveal multiple ties to China among the researchers in question, including Chinese research institutions and talent recruitment programs -- namely, China's Thousand Talents Program, which has come under scrutiny from US officials.
The Chinese government
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
the program as an effort to bring the top minds from overseas "who can make breakthroughs in key technologies or can enhance China's high-tech industries."
However, in a
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
to the US Senate Judiciary Committee in December, one FBI official blasted programs like Thousand Talents, describing how incentives such as "competitive salaries, state-of-the-art research facilities, and honorific titles" may come with an ulterior motive.
"The Chinese government is attempting to acquire or steal, not only the plans and intentions of the United States government, but also the ideas and innovations of the very people that make our economy so incredibly successful," Bill Priestap, assistant director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division, told the committee.
According to an NIH advisory committee
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
from December, "These kinds of information collection efforts are not unique to China, and NIH is not the only funding agency affected."
The NIH
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
biomedical research to the tune of tens of billions of dollars per year nationwide, making it the largest public funder in the world to do so.
According to the NIH, concerns surrounding foreign influence highlight a delicate balance between forging productive partnerships with foreign scientists while safeguarding American innovation and property.
Source of tension
It may also come as a source of tension among Asian or Asian-American academics.
In March, three professional groups for Chinese and Chinese American scientists wrote an
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in Science Magazine to express "concerns about the recent political rhetoric and policies that single out students and scholars of Chinese descent working in the United States as threats to US national interests. These developments have led to confusion, fear, and frustration among these highly dedicated professionals, who are in danger of being singled out for scapegoating, stereotyping, and racial profiling."
The groups cited "several high-profile cases in which Chinese-American scientists were wrongfully accused of spying" and warned that NIH policies surrounding collaboration, some not clearly defined, could be implemented with bias.
In a response to the letter, NIH director Collins said that the agency had "carefully considered how to ensure fairness of the grant process and intellectual property principles, while seeking to minimize jeopardy to innocent foreign nationals and important international collaborations."
In response to concerns about profiling, Pisters said that MD Anderson "acted without regard to race, ethnicity or nationality and solely based upon alleged malfeasance" raised by federal authorities.
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
Or gold.
Looks like this summer is shaping up to be an interesting one.
Ongoing violence in Libya with Donald just announcing his support for Hafta which really is an interesting angle. Venezuela and Iran are sanctioned. Permian has pipeline issues to quickly rump up and meet shortfalls. Saudis can't do anything until late June, if at all. US is still a net importer despite a mix of exports. Besides China, Japan, SoKo, Taiwan, India are on the hook, so-called allies and partners of US.
This tariff and sanction business is really a fun to watch. Certainly Donald wouldn't want a sticker shock at the pump during summer driving time. All it would take is one eia draw down report. It looks like China still has some room in copper oil ratio.
Permian can't replace Iran. Shale oil in US is very light. A lot of refineries are setup to take heavy crudes in order to cut down costs. Also need heavier crude to produce heavy products like kerosene, bunker fuel and heavy diesels.

I can foresee China just using a shell company to only trade with Iran, then will be completely out of reach of US. Then use it as bargaining chip for tariffs.
 

Ultra

Junior Member
At the risk of getting banned, (my last post was imflamatory and country bashing).
I just would like to say the behaviour of unilatral sanctioning by a single country to anyone they like and then threatening any other countries that doesnt comply.
Where is the law based institution that the west, and its cheerleaderd keeps on about?
You could imagin the reactions and outcry from the "western law abiding institution" if the one doing the sanctioning and threatening is China!


This is EXACTLY my sentiment and what I found the biggest hypocrisy of them all.
US ALWAYS harping about law-based international institution when it suits them, but never abide by them and acted unilaterally to threaten and abuse others whenever it can.

What this really do is setting a precedent. What goes around comes around. When China becomes the most powerful country on earth, all these years of hypocrisy and fake law-based international institution will come to nothing when China acted unilaterally because US didn't set a shiny example itself.
 

Ultra

Junior Member
Also, US do not have the right of applying domestic law to international transactions. At most US can ban Chinese oil companies from using SWIFT or buy US crude, then they will just shoot themselve in the foot. The end of Petro dollar is the end of US dollar as a reserve currency.


But this is exactly what US is doing - applying its domestic laws on foreign SOVEREIGN countries - "you trade with Iran, be prepared to risk sanction from our side".
 

Ultra

Junior Member
If there's any takeaway from the current administration is that it plays dirty. You keep buying Iran oil aka not fall in line? I'll hit your semiconductor industry again. I'll slander your diaspora. I'll arrest some other high profile Chinese. The US can get away with these things without impunity.

"The US can get away with these things with impunity." ;)

impunity
/ɪmˈpjuːnɪti/
noun
noun: impunity
exemption from punishment or freedom from the injurious consequences of an action.
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
But this is exactly what US is doing - applying its domestic laws on foreign SOVEREIGN countries - "you trade with Iran, be prepared to risk sanction from our side".
What's your point? It only works with its Vassel states. If US sanction China for trading with Iran, then they will have to expect China either sanction them back, bring them to WTO or dump US Treasury. In any case, crash the USD and make USD the non-reserve currency of half of the world.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top