Trade War with China

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by Ultra, Jan 27, 2018.

  1. Franklin
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    Franklin Captain

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  2. antiterror13
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    antiterror13 Major

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    agree, I think in 2035-2040 it will end up we have 2 hyper powers (US and China) and 3 super powers (India, Russia and EU) and many regional powers (Brazil, Japan, Indonesia, South Africa).

    Like you said there will not be any dominant power like the US today in near future .... which is a great thing

    Current situation with only single hyper power is BAD!
     
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  3. Biscuits
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    Biscuits Junior Member
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    I'd say it majority stems from adjusted GDP. Especially if the US seeks to isolate China, nominal GDP will have even less effect.

    Ironically, if US had sought to engage China further and tangle it with the western economies, it would decrease China's actual economic power as it becomes dependent on outsourcing to countries with lower purchase power relative to itself. By trying to create a schism, they're letting China play to it's advantage by recalling factories back to the mainland where the purchasing power is high.
     
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  4. Nutrient
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    Nutrient New Member
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    Indeed. I think Trump's assault on ZTE, Huawei, Fujian Jinhua, et cetera was actually advantageous for China. He has notified everyone in the Middle Kingdom that the US is quite hostile. Even two years ago, a large percentage of the Chinese (maybe half) continued to believe that the US was friendly, and preferred to buy from American companies rather than invest some money to develop domestic alternatives. Now everyone knows better. If the U.S. president hadn't given China such a loud warning, the Americans might have struck when China was unready. Not now.
     
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  5. plawolf
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    plawolf Brigadier

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    You can bet it’s not just Chinese companies who are taking notes.

    I think the EU in particular will be making a very careful and quiet review of their dependency on American supplies.

    The EU is purposefully building new economic vehicles to use to resist American sanctions on Iran to try and preserve the UN backed nuclear agreement.

    They would have to be fools to not see the danger of American retaliation from both the ZTE and Meng cases.

    The question is whether those examples will scare the EU into accepting America effectively having a veto on their foreign policy, or whether they will work to reduce their dependency and exposure to hedge against possible American moves against them in the same manner.

    In the rest of the world, you can bet that companies and leaders are also taking note of how willing the US government is to weaponise trade, and so will have difficult decisions to make about hedging against that risk.

    Increasingly, China is the main means by which countries who do not wish to be enslaved by American dictates can resist, as Chinese technology closes the gap to America’s.

    That is another reason why America is trying to suppress Chinese technological advancement.
     
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  6. Jura
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    Jura Lieutenant General

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    this thread for
    21:22, 12-Feb-2019
    Analysis: How far is too far when it comes to American hegemony? https://news.cgtn.com/news/3d3d514d35516a4e32457a6333566d54/index.html

     
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  7. Nutrient
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    Nutrient New Member
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    Yes. Japan should start worrying too, as it is clear that from now on the U.S. will be choking individual companies if it cannot compete with them. Imagine Toyota or Mitsubishi on the U.S.'s hit list. If Toyota were destroyed, what would that do to Japan's economy?

    So I disagree with Totoro that the U.S. will be successfull in stopping China's rise with the help of smaller countries, as the little countries will have to watch their backs: the U.S. is what they will have to fear the most. Therefore, any alliance between the Americans and the smaller nations will be quite unstable. Meanwhile, the countries in China's orbit will prosper, and China will continue to rise.

    Yes. For example, Pakistan can avoid the IMF's onerous terms by borrowing from China:

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dip...nds-us1-billion-pakistan-speculation-over-imf

    The IMF is still controlled by the U.S.
     
  8. antiterror13
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    antiterror13 Major

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    very true .. also Japan and SK and don't forget Taiwan as well ..... are taking notes as well ... their companies are the next ... watch out TSMC, Samsung, LG, Toshiba, Corolla, etc
     
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  9. gelgoog
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    gelgoog Junior Member
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    The Japanese already know that. The US basically stomped NEC's supercomputer sales in the USA for years for example. It is just that it used to be mainly restricted to so called strategic sectors. To a large degree the USA also used to protect their own companies by only adopting their own standards instead of following ITU standards at one point.

    The USA notoriously did this with CDMA vs GSM to ensure Qualcomm would still dominate the segment. Only when CDMA totally lost in the world market were they forced to backpedal on that. Chinese investors did much of the same mistakes the Japanese did in the 1990s like investing in the US real estate and movie business.
    It was a waste of money. They bought property which is not worth the property tax let alone the asking price. The movie business is also a waste of time.
    You are better off creating your own industry. China has the Hong Kong film industry so why not just build on that?

    After what has happened lately to both Chinese and Russian investors abroad I suspect a lot of Chinese are now reconsidering their investments in the USA.
     
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  10. LesAdieux
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    LesAdieux Junior Member

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    don't know how old you are, but most likely China will have a nominal GDP larger than the US by 2025.
     
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