Trade War with China

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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
BAHAHAHA. Dump the US Treasury.
DUMP THE US TREASURY you say.

That would actually be great for the US. Once China dumps all of the US Treasury bonds and the bond market collapses, US Government would then buy back those treasury at discounted price, that means China ABSORBS THE LOSS while US GAINS WITHOUT PAYING FOR THE LOSS.

DUMB ASSES.

Actually it's hard to speculate on what the prices would be after such a "dumping". Of course China's not stupid enough to commit such a mass sell-off and devalue their own assets which is why they've practiced gradual and limited sell-offs in the past. They earn China interest so why sell them. If the theory with the "dumpers" is that such a move will create volatility and result in some sort of economic destruction of the US, of course they would be wrong there. However even if the US were to buy them back, it would reasonably take quite some time for them to do that. The whole premise of China using this as some sort of weapon seems a bit like wishful thinking to me. Of course I don't really know much about economics but the real economic weapons China hold are clear and self-evident but too often ignored.

China needs to save its manufacturing and continue to convince most of the world to do its manufacturing there. Not so much for learning different foreign commercial technologies nowadays since most of that's been thoroughly completed years if not decades ago. High tech fields seldom involve China in the slightest (I can think of three). If most of the world is to move their manufacturing out of China, and this is only one economic driving force behind China's, then China will be faced with even greater pressure to create new industries and go further into services and technology. At this moment, there's little reason to believe China will not come out from that cycle becoming relatively competitive and cutting out chunks of the pie for itself. At the moment it appears China wants to have their cake and eat it too, by holding onto manufacturing while they continue to compete and develop in the high end fields which will create future industries. It will only slow the process down if China is to lose manufacturing so soon while the average Chinese citizen's overall living standards and productivity still fall well short of OECD. Goes to show why they're fighting so hard in retaliation of US efforts to cut off that cash cow. I think the US leaders may have believed Chinese leaders feel they are ready to let go of some of those economic drivers in exchange for less aggressive confrontation so early in China's rise.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
That's not how treasuries and bonds work. They aren't stocks where the value goes up and down day to day. They're essentially loans to the US so it can pay for programs with money the US doesn't make. That's why the deficit and debt keeps climbing. Americans don't save hence why they have to borrow and the US government issues treasuries and bonds to pay for programs and the interests owed from them. The only catastrophe is when the US goes bankrupt and can't pay back. If China is the one that starts dumping it'll most likely get its money back. The danger is China dumping might cause a domino effect to which everyone else starts dumping and thus the US will have no extra money to pay for their government programs hence why everyone will want their money before the US can't pay back. If you look at the figures Americans are the largest treasury and bond holders. Some point to that as the real force behind treasuries and bonds not China. So why is everyone worried if China starts dumping? If the domino effect happens, the biggest losers will be Americans because they'll most likely be the last ones to start cashing out when the government can't pay out. What do you think is going to happen if the government can't or won't payback money that is owed to the American people? That's a cascade effect throughout the entire US economy. China doesn't need to possess the majority of treasuries and bonds. It holds enough that can start the snowball effect.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
The danger is China dumping might cause a domino effect to which everyone else starts dumping and thus the US will have no extra money to pay for their government programs hence why everyone will want their money before the US can't pay back. If you look at the figures Americans are the largest treasury and bond holders. Some point to that as the real force behind treasuries and bonds not China.
The US central bank (as every other ) will exchange government bonds in unlimited amount for $.

So, China can claim dollars as exchange for its treasuries at any time.

Of course the dollars doesn't pay interest.
 

advill

Junior Member
Both US & China realise there are NO Winner IF the situation (Trade War) continues. No one country how BIG it is, can dominate & progress in the markets. We are an interdependent world for Trade & Economic progress. President Xi know this, & President Trump regardless of his rhetoric & ranting know this too. Too much at stake for both countries their Corporations & peoples. I believe both Presidents would work out their differences, & provide mutually beneficial solutions. "Jaw Jaw NOT War War".
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Both US & China realise there are NO Winner IF the situation (Trade War) continues. No one country how BIG it iscan dominate & progress in the markets. We are an interdependent world for Trade & Economic progress. President Xi know this, & President Trump regardless of his rhetoric & ranting know this too. Too much at stake for both countries their Corporations & peoples. I believe both Presidents would work out their differences, & provide mutually beneficial solutions. "Jaw Jaw NOT War War".
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It is the great depression, the UK-USA has similar relations like now China-USA.
USA was the exporter( trade surplus) UK was the importer ( trade deficit)

The effects of great depression was deeper and longer for the USA, and without the 2nd WW no one know how long would it be.

In the 30s the currency was gold backed, so they haven't had effective ways to counter the depression - on paper, because during the WWII they managed.

So we can say that the Great Depression was a political issue (resistance from wealthy to save the workers ) than anything else.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
You have to ask yourself, if out of the 72 countries that participated in the OBOR loan program, 23 are in danger of being "debt trapped" and 8 are in serious debt traps they can't get out of which includes China's "all weather friend" Pakistan - that's an astounding 33%! What kind of bank will be willingly going out to debt trap people with this kind of statistics? It would be criminal if they do that. To say that it is a scam to ONLY enrich China is not far off the mark.

Wake up. China is only looking at short term gain it is so completely short sighted I would say it is practically blind. They are burning their closest allies and friends and soon if those wakes up to those facts China will have no one to trade with. Trust is the easiest thing in the world to loose, and the hardest thing in the world to get back. Think about it.

8 out of 72? That's really very very good. Do you know how many countries out there are completely irresponsible with money? You can't deal with them without them getting into debt "traps" and it's never anyone's fault except their own. If they see money, it's gone and it's not to an investment. China's OBOR is as mutually-beneficial as it gets. China offers generous loans that these countries eagerly accept in order to improve their own infrastructure. They saw the terms, they agreed to them, they promised that these financial commitments would not overwhelm them, and China let them have what they asked for. If this isn't mutually beneficial then I guess your definition would have to be China holding their hands and micromanaging their accounts to make sure that every step went well, in which case they'll call China condescending. And if that doesn't work, then China should just give them endless cash without the need for repayment, right? That's mutually beneficial, right? Cus that would be the only place to go from what's already been given to them.

You're the only person I've heard call infrastructure investments short-sighted. These investments are the definition of long-term plan. You're the one who's short-sighted, abandoning long term projects and future benefit because of near-term financial difficulties. Blinder than a bat with strep throat, I'd say. And you're the one who needs to wake up, to the simple fact that everyone is responsible for their own finances. All loans were offered as an opportunity, and they accepted; nothing was forced on them. If they cannot live up to the terms that they willfully entered into then the only fault lies with them and they can lose trust in their own financial management. If they lose trust in China when China has fulfilled all parts of its side of the contract, then they can be swallowed by their own irrationality. Nothing can be done about that.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
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USA mortgage loan is around 15 trillion, vs 31.8 trillion stock, China has 5.5 trillion cs 40 trillion stock.

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Interestingly third of the mortgage in the hand of federal financial institutions.

So, we can say that in China the housing prices can collapse to the quarter without endanger the financial system.

The households will loose lot of wealth of course .

Interestingly, over 8 trillion of housing is empty, bigger than the whole mortgage pool.

Surely, you know why Apple's failing and losing market share in China to Chinese giants Huawei, Oppo, Xiaomi, right? Apple's decline has nothing to do with China's economy. Because of the trade war, China is sick of American goods, especially ones that can no longer boast an advantage over their Chinese counterparts while remaining heftily more expensive. Iphone is the most obvious example.

As for houses, China's government has always implemented policies to stop the purchasing of property as a way for the rich elite to become richer and the common man to be squeezed out. Every person has a property limit that he cannot exceed and transfers to family are heavily scrutinized. Beijing wants Chinese real estate to be purchased as living quarters so more people can prosper in cities. Without these laws limited real estate investment, the super rich would buy more and more real estate, only renting them out, causing housing ownership to decline. The upper class would buy multiple newly-built apartments and literally keep them empty so they did not devalue from use and hope to sell them 20 years later for ten fold profit. There would be less and less housing available for ordinary people and what would available would be more and more expensive due to investors snatching them up.

This has nothing to do with the trade war and is barely related to China's economic performance. This is just China's policy to give more to the middle class and prevent them from being swallowed by tycoons.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
BAHAHAHA. Dump the US Treasury.
DUMP THE US TREASURY you say.

That would actually be great for the US. Once China dumps all of the US Treasury bonds and the bond market collapses, US Government would then buy back those treasury at discounted price, that means China ABSORBS THE LOSS while US GAINS WITHOUT PAYING FOR THE LOSS.

DUMB ASSES.

Why?

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The US has to pay China $73.9 million on interest alone each day, which means like over $2 billion each month and $26 billion each year. How many warships can China build on $26 billion alone?

That's interest, not including principal.

The current interest on US government debt alone is $364 billion as of today. That's like about half of the US defense budget.

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If the current trends continue, the US can be paying over $1 trillion in interest payments per year alone.

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