Trade War with China

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by Ultra, Jan 27, 2018.

  1. Anlsvrthng
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    Anlsvrthng Junior Member
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    I went through few times about the semi capability numbers,and as it looks like the word stopped around 22nm for CPUs , anything beyond that giving marginal speed benefits, and the cost minimum is now around 90/45nm, no smaller.

    The later nodes beyond 90nm showing drastic cost increase per transistor, apart from the 100 million devices /tool region. And the EUV doesn't help.
     
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  2. tidalwave
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    tidalwave Junior Member
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    I know people are going to bring up.Qualcomm.
    Well Qualcomm has a division of process engineers that practically live inside TSMC, they work with TSMC engineers to fine tune the process to best fit to Qualcomm especially the ones with analog functions. Generic TSMC process may not be optimal therefore adjustment are needed. Qualcomm able to do that because their process engineers have access to TSMC facilities.

    No, mainland companies like Huawei , not allowed into TSMC facilities!
    So, what they end up with is generic vanilla recipe for digital CPU chip, like Kirin. As long as you doing only CPU you are fine with TSMC.

    But things with analog functions such Silicon photonics for fiber optic which both ZTE and Huawei don't have , that one you really need you own fab.very specialized product require special process and TSMC do not provide those.



    People are reading too much into China AI propaganda.

    It's a luxury one does NOT need to have. Without AI, it won't be optimal but business as usual.

    But without critical parts, ZTE and Jinhua will immediately die!!

    I advise people to take it easy on AI opium, it's not healthy
     
    #2492 tidalwave, Nov 8, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2018
  3. Jura
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    Jura Lieutenant General

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    and here's the DefenseOne story from today:
    China Is Beating the US in the Rare-Earths Game https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2018/11/china-beating-us-rare-earths-game/152674/
     
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  4. tidalwave
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    tidalwave Junior Member
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    Also people here so misinformed. They only think the smaller the better such as China SMIC has only 28nm, and next better one would be 14nm.

    Now, Fujian Jinhua is doing 32nm DRAM and US has banned equipment to it and Jinhua is dying!

    You would ask why not Jinhua use SMIC more advanced 28nm?

    Nah, Apple and oranges. They are completely different process. One is for generic digital chip process and another for DRAM memory process.

    Different products requires different processes!!

    It's meaningless for people only talking 28nm and 14nm for CPU manufacturing when China don't even have 32nm and 45nm process setup for DRAM, Silicon photonics, and other sensors.

    Also, that lil wisdom man is something else he got nothing but biggest mouth, calling this guy is smart and that guy is stupid. Man, he's such a bore. No useful knowledge whatsoever!
     
  5. Biscuits
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    Biscuits New Member
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    @tidalwave

    If the govt thought it was a serious threat, they would have banned exports to US companies in retaliation.

    Small companies come and go all the time. These guys who tried to undercut Chinese industry by importing American parts got what was coming to them. Local companies will take over the market shares and create more jobs.
     
  6. tidalwave
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    tidalwave Junior Member
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    China central overnment too scared to go after US companies afraid Trump would raise tariff for the remaining goods.

    Eight now, China government seriously indulging in AI opium, fooling itself into believing it's on path to self sufficiency.

    China are in current shithole, cause their advisors gave bad advices and therefore lousy policy.

    Had they got the right policy 20 years ago, China already be self sufficient by now. Their tech would not leading edge but l100% self sufficient. There would not be case of ZTE , Jinhua, etc.
     
    #2496 tidalwave, Nov 8, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2018
  7. localizer
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    localizer New Member
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    had china abided to US policies 20 years ago and let Western firms roam free:

    1. China would end up like chaotic India
    2. Lost Xinjiang, Tibet, Taiwan (completely)
    3. Maybe even turned into smaller countries by province.
    4. There would have never been a Tencent, Baidu, Alibaba, ...
    5. Google, Amazon, Apple, Walmart, and blah blah blah would loot the shit out of the country and provide like 1 million jobs in total.

    No company would ever share its state of the art trade secrets with other companies let alone political allies.
     
  8. tidalwave
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    tidalwave Junior Member
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    I am never a promoter of letting western firms run wild in China.

    Had China implement the correct policy (I already thought about things that they haven't done and things they should done differently) they would be self sufficient technologically by now and US would Not even know about it!
    Now, China is not technologically sufficient and its trade relationship with US ruptured. Stuck in no man's land.
     
  9. localizer
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    localizer New Member
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    What policies would have been better?
    The big guy comes to you and gives you 2 choices: Follow our blueprint for your country's future and we'll give you tech which you will rely on for the foreseeable future. Don't listen to us and we'll give you a hard time and rally your neighbors against you.
    You can't be self-sufficient without letting foreign firms in and teaching your people the knowledge. Asian tigers success was largely due to US support, there wouldn't be a TSMC, Toyota, or Samsung without the US. However, they all ended up losing a lot of their sovereignty.

    If the the world had free reign on the Chinese internet and media, breaking down the country would have been simple. Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, India, Russia, and internal Chinese factions would have all joined in. I'm not saying this is good or bad because we didn't go down this route, but from the CCP's perspective this was not a risk they could take. Chinese people are largely ignorant and uneducated.
     
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  10. tidalwave
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    tidalwave Junior Member
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    Neither. There are better policies out there
     
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