The US just quietly challenged China on something Beijing promised to go to war over

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by SPOOPYSKELETON, Jun 8, 2019.

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  1. SPOOPYSKELETON
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    SPOOPYSKELETON Just Hatched
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    https://www.insider.com/us-calls-taiwan-a-country-and-could-draw-chinas-anger-2019-6

    Are there any experts on Taiwanese politics that can give us insight into possible US approaches to formal independence?
     
  2. Jura
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    Jura General

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    it's a non-political forum here
     
  3. SPOOPYSKELETON
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    SPOOPYSKELETON Just Hatched
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    Supporting Taiwanese independence is going to provoke military action, which is why it is a strategic affair.
     
  4. tidalwave
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    tidalwave Senior Member
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    North and South Korea tactically still at war but they don't really do anything nowadays. Likewise, China can announce civil war with Taiwan continues but can wait till 10 to 20 years later to actually involve military action.
    Declare war can still leave alot of wiggle room.
     
  5. SPOOPYSKELETON
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    Wouldn't this damage the legitimacy of the party? I read somewhere that this is what the Pentagon is aiming for.
     
  6. jimmyjames30x30
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    jimmyjames30x30 New Member
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    First of all, Taiwan adventuring independence is in China's interest. The party will just vastly increase military spending and start a war of arms race with Taiwan. If Taiwan does not venturing into formal independence, it is actually bad reputation for China to significantly grow its military. However, if Taiwan does venture into formal independence, it will give the CCP a legitimate international call to arm up and confront Taiwan. This will significantly ease China's confrontation with South East Asia, because the SEA countries has been suspicious of PRC's military build up. Taiwan independence will give China the excuse and legitimacy, and a false facade that its strategic military resources is being draw to Taiwan Straight. This will also mean the same for Japan and Korea, both would stay away and enjoy the fact that Taiwan bears the full thrust of PLA's attentions and resources.
     
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  7. jimmyjames30x30
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    jimmyjames30x30 New Member
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    Taiwan's formal independence is actually very bad for US position. Because one of the foundational idea of Taiwan independence is the idea of de-sinolization. De-sinolization is actually an double edge sword for Taiwan's (and the US's) strategic position in terms of the continuing Chinese Civil War. This is because a de-sinolized Taiwan would have no legitimacy in an strategically offensive operation against the PRC. This is why even though the US has been secretly helping the Green Base (pro-independence), it has been reluctant to push for full de-sinolized independence.
     
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  8. jimmyjames30x30
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    jimmyjames30x30 New Member
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    The US wants the Taiwanese authority to have the strategic flexibility to face a (what the USA considers) a volatile China. This means that Taiwan should be able to declare independence if PRC supremacy in the region is imminent, and Taiwan should be able to quickly step in and re-take the mainland as a ROC authority if PRC collapse is foreseeable. This is because Taiwan is effectively a US proxy, it is in the US's interest that an Republic of China exist as a alternative to quickly step in as a proxy.

    This is why the US does not really want Taiwan authority to lose its legitimacy as a alternative authority of all of China.
     
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  9. jimmyjames30x30
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    jimmyjames30x30 New Member
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    In plain language, if Taiwan chooses formal independence. It would have forfeited its rights and legitimacy to act as a US spear in any strategically offensive campaign against PRC. Because Formal Taiwanese Independence entails recognizing the PRC as an independence and separate nation from Taiwan. The price of having a Taiwan republic would be forever locking itself in the defensive position. This will vastly eliminate one of most fundamental threats to the CCP government: an mature alternative claimant of the legitimate ruler-ship of China. If Taiwanese authority formal seek independence, it will mean the official end of ROC and the start of a Taiwanese republic. This basically hands CCP and PRC a legitimacy card, and assures the world that PRC is the only legitimate authority of mainland China, uncontested. This puts Taiwan in absolute defensive position, without any hope of offensive campaign.
     
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  10. tower9
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    tower9 New Member
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    The purposefulness of the One China policy has outlived its use. China is now a competitor against the US in all fields, what point is there for the US to continue to follow the One China policy when the US has decided that there is no use to even maintain a good relationship with China? Clearly the aim right now is to decouple the economies, contain China politically and push for formal Taiwanese independence as a way to distract and fumble China's development.

    I think ultimately the goal of the US hawks is to use Taiwan as human sacrifice to destroy China's development. They know if they can draw China into a war over Taiwan, this will stall and destroy China's momentum as well as lead to significant global outcry against China and no certain chance of Chinese victory over Taiwan either.

    The question now is, will Taiwan be dumb enough to understand the trap that is being set and be willing to allow their livelihoods be endangered and destroyed for the chance to simply formally declare independence?
     
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