The Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership starts to get serious!

I wouldn't read too much into this.

I doubt anyone seriously expect China to get directly involved in any military operations in Ukriane. Hell, not even the Russian is directly involved (in any official capacity).

The ribbon might have taken on new political meaning in the last few years, but who really think the Chinese military has any loyalty towards Putin or the Kremlin?

I would guess that since this was an event to mark the end of WII in Europe, the official line would be that all participants wear it in rememberance and honour of the war dead, and that the Chinese soldiers were merely wearing it because it was what the host wanted and because of its historical significance.

Some may try to spin this to suggest something more, but that would just be spin.

China may not be able to maintain its official position of neutrality and non-interference forever, and there may well be a time and place where China will have to pick a side and make a stand, but that time and place most certainly isn't now and over Ukraine.

Chinese military assistance in Ukriane is about as needed as Russian military assistance in the South China Sea.

In both instances, Russia or China could steamroll all opposition if they chose the military option short of direct US military involvement.

However, if the US were to get directly engaged in military conflict in either areas, there wouldn't be a great deal Russia or China could do to assist the other directly without massively escalating the conflict and pretty much kicking off WWIII.

As far as I am concerned, if that happens, everybody looses and we would probably all end up as glow in the dark dust shortly after, so there is little point getting into that.

Xi Jinping Was on the Parade Review with Vladimir Putin.

A long, but good article.

Just to clarify, the message I alluded too in my previous post, was not "Loyalty to Putin" or an imminent intention to join the fighting in Ukraine!

It was a rather less, but still highly significant symbol of solidarity between China and Russia and a recognition and respect of, a serious core issue for the Russian state.
It is I suppose, the equivalent of Xi visiting France and appearing publicly in a "I am Charlie" t Shirt.

It is significant, as it is the first instance I can think of, where either China or Russia has made an open statement of this solidarity over an Allies core issue. It suggest that there are more overt displays coming from both sides over the coming months for each others core strategic concerns.

SampanViking said:

Just to clarify, the message I alluded too in my previous post, was not "Loyalty to Putin" or an imminent intention to join the fighting in Ukraine!

It was a rather less, but still highly significant symbol of solidarity between China and Russia and a recognition and respect of, a serious core issue for the Russian state.
It is I suppose, the equivalent of Xi visiting France and appearing publicly in a "I am Charlie" t Shirt.

It is significant, as it is the first instance I can think of, where either China or Russia has made an open statement of this solidarity over an Ali's core issue. It suggest that there are more overt displays coming from both sides over the coming months for each others core strategic concerns.

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That's a relief??? LOL

China Russia relations will continue to be good for some time to come.

balance said:

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A long, but good article.

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Very good article balance. Thank you for posting the link for us.
I strongly recommend those with an interest in this subject, read it.

SampanViking said:

Very good article balance. Thank you for posting the link for us.
I strongly recommend those with an interest in this subject, read it.

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It is indeed a good read, there are certain aspects about it that are clearly dated and no longer valid, like the point about Russian weapons still being sort after by China, but on the whole it does a good job of demolishing many fallacies about obstacles between a Sino-Russian alliance.

However, having said that, I still think a formal alliance between China and Russia is still some way off without a significant change in the world.

The main obstacle standing in the way of a formal alliance is simply that there isn't really a need for it from either the Russian or Chinese prospectives, and of the likely reaction to the creation of such an alliance.

Formal military alliances are only of any real value if the member states are facing a clear and present external military threat. If that was the case, the prospect of having to engage multiple opponents is supposed to serve as a deterrence against external aggression against any members of the alliance.

Problem is neither Russia or China is facing such direct threat of foreign attack. Thus diminishing the benefits either side would derive from a formal alliance.

The challenges both nations face in their respective spheres of influence are political and economical, not military.

The flip side of the nature of military alliances is that there has to be an external 'enemy' that the alliance is formed against.

In a situation where no clear external threat exists, formal military alliances could actually be detrimental to peace and stability and act against the best interest of alliance members by creating threats and enemies where none need actually exist.

Indeed, the very reason Russia, and to a lesser extent, China, are even being thought of as needing to form an alliance is paradoxically because of Western and American reluctance to dispel with their own obsolete and unnecessary Cold War relic alliances.

In Europe, and to a lesser extent, Asia, America's now pointless military alliances have tried to justify their continued existance by seeking out new opponents and making new enemies to defend against after the end of the Cold War, rather than dissolve alongside the Soviet threat they were created to defend against.

Much of the conflict in Europe, and the reason Russia is now so entrenched against America and the EU is because of the expansionist tendencies of NATO in relentlessly pushing Eastward and actively antagonising Russia to create a threat to defend against.

America's unwise pivot to Asia has started to do the same with China by enboldening and enabling anyone with a beef against China, whether justified or not, to become ever more bold and brazen in provoking China thinking they are safe from consequences because of American tacit support.

If China and Russia were to enter into a formal military alliance, there would be absolutely no doubt that America would be the target.

That would give all the Cold Warriors so desperate for a re-run exactly what they wanted and pretty much kick off a new Cold War.

Neither Russia or China are particularly keen to go down that path just yet.

So, to sum up, as of yet, a formal military alliance between Russia and China is simply unnecessary for either party. And indeed, establishing one would almost certainly put both in a position they would not really wish to be in.

Those are the real obstacles to a formal military alliance.

Indeed, both Russia and China benefit from their current non-allianed status more than they would gain from any formal alliance.

As two seperate nations, they cannot really be held responsible for each other's actions, so both can engage the US in their own ways, to their own strengths.

As things stand, China can just watch from the sidelines and pass the popcorn as Russia squares up and play brinksmanship with America and NATO and quietly cheer every time America blinks first and backs down.

The mood would be very different if Russian brinksmanship could potentially drag China into a nuclear war with America.

If that was the case, the behind-the-scenes back slapping and shared sniggering of now may well turn into nagging and acrimonious bickering.

The current status quo serves Chinese and Russian interests well, while helping to keep America and its allies off-balance.

China and Russia would be foolish to give that up and potentially galvanising and unifying America.

What China and Russia needs and gets from each other is diplomatic and economic backing and support.

Any military co-ordination would be limited to joint exercises and maybe closer engagement via the SCO, which could be built up as a joint, yet independent military force to co-ordinate security arrangements to safeguard all the new infrastructure China plans to build in Central Asia to link Asia and Europe via a stopover in Moscow.

At most we may see a return of high-end arms deals between Russia and China, only with Russia as the buyer this time, and maybe joint R&D into future technologies and weapons systems. But even that is a long way off.

The only way we will see a formal military alliance between China and Russia anytime within the foreseeable future is if an external military threat of such potency and beligerence emerged to pose a real and present threat to both nations and neither were confident of being able to defend against it alone.

So that is not going to happen unless Aliens invade or America decide it wants to invade and conquer the rest of the world.

Just in the nick of time, M K Bhadrakumar produces his take on the Xi-Putin summit over the weekend.

In substantive terms, a second joint statement – again, signed by Putin and Xi) – on the co-relation between the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union [EAEU] and the China-led Silk Road Economic Belt initiatives stands out as a historic document that elevates the Sino-Russian partnership to unprecedented heights both at a practical level and in political terms.

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The rest is even more interesting......

plawolf said:

(...) Those are the real obstacles to a formal military alliance. (...)

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I believe another, very specific, obstacle is the complex that derives from unresolved tensions between China and India and India and Pakistan and the relations that China has with Pakistan and Russia has with India. Maybe not quite as complex as the Gordian knot, but sufficiently tangled to complexify the prospect of a Sino-Russian alliance