The military budget of China in 2007 financial year

FuManChu said:

Ok, there seems to be some confusion on my part. I thought in post #12 you were saying that China is seen as being a peaceful country - upon revisiting it you were actually saying it is (i.e. in your opinion) peaceful. Am I right, or were you also saying it is seen that way?

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Ah. I see. Actually your original interpretation was closer. But you need to take the paragraph as a whole. Perhaps I should have been more precise, but I didn't expect the sentence to be so controversial.

I assert that any sensible observer would say that, today, China is peaceful and doesn't have the military capability to defeat a U.S. backed enemy. "Peaceful" in this context means "unlikely to start a war". Those who are worried are worried about what will happen well into the future.

Remember this was in the context of why Chinese might be worried about Japan, even though there's no threat of invasion within the next decade or two.

What we ended up debating was a broader sense of the word "peaceful" than I had in mind. The concept of "peaceful" I was talking about isn't really subject to public opinion polls. Anybody who thinks China is going to invade anybody in the next few years is simply uninformed.

... Ami.

AmiGanguli said:

Anybody who thinks China is going to invade anybody in the next few years is simply uninformed.

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I don't think that has ever been a point of contention here, especially with things like the 2008 Olympics and 2010 World Expo approaching. Though an "invasion" isn't the only sort of offensive military activity that a country like China could engage in, so that's a somewhat imperfect point.

FuManChu said:

I don't think that has ever been a point of contention here, especially with things like the 2008 Olympics and 2010 World Expo approaching. Though an "invasion" isn't the only sort of offensive military activity that a country like China could engage in, so that's a somewhat imperfect point.

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Well, invasion, bombing, or basically anything involving a lot of people getting killed. The only possible exception is Taiwan, and even that would require some colossally stupid diplomatic failures on both sides of the straights.

But if we go back to the original argument, then, the point I was trying to make was that the "Japan threat" argument isn't based on specific legislation or proposals currently under consideration, but the general political climate.

If you can justify Japan/U.S./India building up their military in response to the perceived long-term threat from China, then I think it's difficult to argue that China shouldn't worry about Japan simply because there is no immediate threat.

... Ami.

By Fumanchu -
It's obvious why China is increasing the defence budget at all. But I have still not heard a credible answer as to why the rate of increase seems to be constantly accelerating.

What's the rush - does the "shop" close in a few years time?

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Fumanchu i do expect not to offend but.

The rush that you talk about is your view of a rush.
There is a lot os explaining to why China is expending in their Armed Forces at any rate of expending they chose to spend.

The most basic answeer is because they are an independent country and need Armed Forces to defend their country.
Because Japan don´t ask China permission to their own expending so
China will not ask Japan for a permission.

There is a constant military technological revolution going on in the world and China is struggling to reach one generation behind USA and to reach the quality of Europe, Japan and Russia military technologies.

If one would ask about military expending so it should ask about every country expending in its Armed Forces since all these forces can be a threat to someone.

One could think China expanding budget as a threat to Taiwan because there is a political fight between China and Taiwan as well as one could think Taiwan existent budget as threat against China.

USA could worry about China expending in Armed Forces as China could worry about USA own expending in Armed Forces and its support for Taiwan Armed Forces.
Other countries in the region are protected by USA against any possible problem
but China has no reasons to be a threat to other countrys since they want business as much as USA want business and wars are bad for business.

If you are talking about other countries (Japan, Australia) been envy of China becoming a military power then its a thing that China can´t change since its a natural condition of human beens to get envy sometimes.
Those who are strong in economy will become strong in its military as Europe is and as Japan is.

China strengt, i believe, has come to stay, because economically it is entangled to USA as USA is entangled to it so that there is no way to put pressure on China without putting pressure on world economy.

When China own military budget surpass those of USA, it is when the world should look with attention, because, then, we could be seing a new Superpower in the world instead of only one more great country with great Armed Forces.

alopes said:

The most basic answeer is because they are an independent country and need Armed Forces to defend their country.
Because Japan don´t ask China permission to their own expending so
China will not ask Japan for a permission.

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China has been voicing disapproval of Japan merely updating its laws to allow more military flexibility, let alone increase the budget as a percentage of GDP. So clearly China believes it has a right to comment on what other countries do.

There is a constant military technological revolution going on in the world and China is struggling to reach one generation behind USA and to reach the quality of Europe, Japan and Russia military technologies.

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Absolutely, which is why I think China is more than justified to increase its spending at a rate higher than any of the G8 nations. The question is whether it needs to increase its spending at a consistently faster rate each year and what the reasons behind that acceleration are. I would understand if China increased spending by 10-12% a year if that was constant (until it got to a certain level), but recently each year that rate has been going up.

One could think China expanding budget as a threat to Taiwan because there is a political fight between China and Taiwan as well as one could think Taiwan existent budget as threat against China.

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Sorry if I'm misunderstanding you, but you're saying one can say Taiwan's budget is a threat against China? How can that be - it's several times smaller than China's.

China has no reasons to be a threat to other countrys since they want business as much as USA want business and wars are bad for business.

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In theory that is true, but given wars do break out it rather shows that business can and does take a back-seat in many cases. Which is why people spend anything on defence. If they were confident no one would start a war because of damage to business, militaries would be the thing of the past - or at least as we know them.

If you are talking about other countries (Japan, Australia) been envy

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I have never suggested envy is behind any countries' concerns about China. It would be ridiculous if that was the case - I would hope most of us have moved on from the penis-measuring contests of the 20th century.

By Fumanchu -

China has been voicing disapproval of Japan merely updating its laws to allow more military flexibility, let alone increase the budget as a percentage of GDP. So clearly China believes it has a right to comment on what other countries do.

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Well Fumanchu, this is true but there is a context on that that must be talked about.

China do consider Taiwan to be a part of its territory and a part of its people.
China will, i think, use all its strength to keep Taiwan as a part of China Nation.

Japan is openly supporting Taiwan independence and voicing dangerously that it will support Taiwan in the case of a war.
China could consider Japan openly support for Taiwan independence as threat of aggression by Japan against its territory and a threat of War.

Since Taiwan isn´t a territory of Japan so China could consider it as an undue aggression by Japan against it and a military threat.
When you put this in context you can understand why China is worry about Japan self permission to engage in wars against China territorial integrity.

If Japan don´t threat to make war against China about Taiwan conflict so it no matter for China how they expend their money or how they make their laws.

FuManChu said:

I would understand if China increased spending by 10-12% a year if that was constant (until it got to a certain level), but recently each year that rate has been going up.

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What you're saying is that you're suspicious of any increase in spending in %GDP terms.

I'd raise also raise my eyebrows if China spent, say, 15% of GDP on defense. But anything up to 3% is pretty normal as far as I'm concerned. Even more for a short time is reasonable given the need for modernization.

This isn't based on anything fixed, it's just what seems to be "normal". If threats in the world decrease then one would hope that these percentages go down for everybody.

... Ami.

By Fumanchu
Sorry if I'm misunderstanding you, but you're saying one can say Taiwan's budget is a threat against China? How can that be - it's several times smaller than China's.

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Well that is the same thing i am sayng about China budget against USA budget so that China budget can´t be a threat to USA and by extention cant be a threat to Japan or other country in the region excluding Taiwan province.

But in the other hand, the military of Taiwan are supposed to hold of China only enough for USA come to fight in their side so that it is a military threat to China since it make Taiwan capable of declaring its independence in an unlikely conflict scenario.

alopes said:

Japan is openly supporting Taiwan independence and voicing dangerously that it will support Taiwan in the case of a war. China could consider Japan openly support for Taiwan independence as threat of aggression by Japan against its territory and a threat of War.

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But Japan has not said it supports Taiwanese independence. It still officially only recognises China, has not signed any FTAs with Taiwan, doesn't let Taiwanese ministers visit, doesn't sell Taiwan arms, etc.

If I remember correctly, all that has happened is that Japan and US have said they view easing tensions in the Taiwan Strait to be part of their "common strategic objectives". It is still unclear what action Japan would take if conflict did break out - certainly it would not be like the commitment the US has to help Taiwan. It is likely to be no more than helping the Americans through search-and-rescue and logistics. China would have to do something pretty stupid to bring Japan's military forces in directly.

All of this assumes that China launches a military attack on Taiwan, and more importantly, that Taiwan has not made a legal declaration of independence or otherwise annoyed the US to the extent where it would not help. It is not a question of Japan helping Taiwan declare independence, only that it might intervene if China launches an unprovoked attack.

But in the other hand, the military of Taiwan are supposed to hold of China only enough for USA come to fight in their side so that it is a military threat to China since it make Taiwan capable of declaring its independence in an unlikely conflict scenario.

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You're saying it's a threat because the Taiwanese can hold themselves off until the Americans come? I think that's rather unfair. The US has said it won't help Taiwan if it declares independence, so that would mean China launches an unprovoked attack. Why is it unfair for Taiwan to defend itself against such an operation?

AmiGanguli said:

What you're saying is that you're suspicious of any increase in spending in %GDP terms.

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I was only giving an illustrative example - I did not mean to imply any increase over 12% is unreasonable. But 12% is faster than the economy is growing, so obviously I couldn't believe what you alleged. I was talking about the ever faster rate of increase.

Fumanchu - You're saying it's a threat because the Taiwanese can hold themselves off until the Americans come? I think that's rather unfair. The US has said it won't help Taiwan if it declares independence, so that would mean China launches an unprovoked attack. Why is it unfair for Taiwan to defend itself against such an operation?

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I don´t think its unfair to Taiwan been or not capable of defending themselves, I only think that China could see it as a threat as much as USA could see China own budget as a threat.

My logic is like your Fumanchu, i also don´t think that China will do an unprovoked attack on Taiwan.

But the factor that i consider and maybe, you don´t count for, is the
Taiwan actual president.

There is the so called "gradual independence strategy" by the actual Taiwan president party.
That strategy call, along other steps, for the change of the constitution to create the so called territorial boundary of Taiwan.
Well this proposed change in Taiwan constitution is nothing less than
a disguised declaration of independence along with other steps to make Taiwan become totally independent from China.

China isn´t fool and is perceiving this trend and will not accept a disguised declaration of independence and that is what the actual president of taiwan is betting on.
In that context USA could view an umprovoked attack by China,
while China will view it as an unprovoked declaration of independence by Taiwan.

That is what i think
Alopes.