The military budget of China in 2007 financial year

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U.S. military spending has grown considerably over the last few years - I think it's currently about 4% of GDP. If you look at China's (less than?) 2% of GDP in this light, it's really not much of a response at all. China has other priorities, but it doesn't want to get so far behind as to be easy pickings.

That is true, but the US is currently fighting two wars. I would be surprised if the figure didn't drop down after the inevitable pull-out. And while the US is engaged in those conflicts its resources are stretched further. Whereas China has only one part of the world to think about.

But the issue isn't what China is spending so much as the rate it is increasing spending. The percentage increase has already been in double-digit figures for years and now it is accelerating even faster.

You have to think of other countries in Asia like Japan, South Korea, India, Taiwan, etc. Do they really believe China is going to level its spending off in a little while? I don't - I think it will continue for as much as a decade, in which case China would be spending over $200 billion a year if levels keep to these rate increases (and that's just if you use SIPRI's figures, which are the lowest in the international community). That sort of thoughtless expenditure could easily set off a massive arms race in Asia and even a war.

Then of course there's increased talk of Japan changing its constitution to allow offensive military operations.

There are no proposals to allow offensive military operations. There is only the idea that Japan could be allowed to operate under the idea of collective self-defence. That would still require a particular friendly country being attacked first, so unless China is planning an invasion sometime soon it has nothing to be concerned about.

More importantly no constitutional ammendments have even been put to the Japanese Parliament. If such "talk" was a concern, China is just shooting itself in the foot by giving fuel to those that do want to change it. Japan only spends 1% of GDP on defence at the moment - would China want it to spend 2% or even 3%?

You can argue about whether or not fear of the Japanese is sensible in the 21st century, but it's much more difficult to be objective when your grandparents were subject to a brutal occupation.

I doubt very much that is ever in the minds of senior Chinese politicians. It's more an excuse used by ultra-nationalist trolls (not you) to justify unacceptable behaviour.
 

AmiGanguli

Junior Member
But the issue isn't what China is spending so much as the rate it is increasing spending. The percentage increase has already been in double-digit figures for years and now it is accelerating even faster.

I'm not sure why the rate of increase is significant. I suspect they have a target in mind (say 2 or 3% of GDP) and are trying to get there as quickly as they sensibly can. You can't double spending overnight because building capacity takes time. If it were possible then I'm sure they'd go to their target (in terms of %GDP) much more quickly.

You have to think of other countries in Asia like Japan, South Korea, India, Taiwan, etc. Do they really believe China is going to level its spending off in a little while? I don't - I think it will continue for as much as a decade, in which case China would be spending over $200 billion a year if levels keep to these rate increases (and that's just if you use SIPRI's figures, which are the lowest in the international community). That sort of thoughtless expenditure could easily set off a massive arms race in Asia and even a war.

I wouldn't expect expenditure in absolute terms to level off until economic growth levels off - maybe in 30 years or so (but impossible to predict really). At that point they'll have expenditures comparable (at least in order of magnitude) to the U.S. I'm afraid that's just something China's neighbours will have to deal with. You can't expect a country the size of China to limit it's military to the size of France.

India will do the same thing, although a decade or so behind China. So will Brazil.

There are no proposals to allow offensive military operations. There is only the idea that Japan could be allowed to operate under the idea of collective self-defence.

It's the general mood and direction that's an issue. It takes time to build a military. You have to prepare for contingencies well into the future. Compare to the concerns a lot of people in the West have about China - a peaceful country with relatively limited military. They're not worried about what will happen tomorrow, but rather what might happen in 20 or 30 years.

I doubt very much that is ever in the minds of senior Chinese politicians. It's more an excuse used by ultra-nationalist trolls (not you) to justify unacceptable behaviour.

Don't be so sure. I agree that hostility towards Japan has been kept alive by government propaganda, but it doesn't necessarily follow that they don't believe it themselves. The people in charge tend to be pretty old, and the events of WWII feel closer to them. Military planning would be very different if 20-year-olds with short memories and lots of optimism made the decisions.
 

Schumacher

Senior Member
That is true, but the US is currently fighting two wars. I would be surprised if the figure didn't drop down after the inevitable pull-out. And while the US is engaged in those conflicts its resources are stretched further. Whereas China has only one part of the world to think about.
......

So you're saying China should perhaps start a war or two like the US, then her spending increase would be ok ?
 
D

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I'm not sure why the rate of increase is significant. I suspect they have a target in mind (say 2 or 3% of GDP) and are trying to get there as quickly as they sensibly can.

The rate increase is crucial, because it has a huge effect on whether other countries bump up their spending more than they may have originally planned. Japan is happy at 1% of GDP for now, but ever increasingly rapid growths in the Chinese budget are going to put pressure on the Tokyo government to shoot their spending up too.

As I asked, does China want to see that happen? I don't think it would, and you shouldn't if you believe Chinese policy is still being influenced by the last war.

You can't expect a country the size of China to limit it's military to the size of France.

No one does, but what's the point of increasing it so sharply if your competitors then increase their's by a lot too? Surely it's better to increase spending at a slower, steady pace and not ruffle too many feathers. Then you have more of an advantage.

Compare to the concerns a lot of people in the West have about China - a peaceful country with relatively limited military. They're not worried about what will happen tomorrow, but rather what might happen in 20 or 30 years.

People in Europe and the Americas generally do not see China as a peaceful country. They see it as being increasingly beligerant and nationalistic.

The people in charge tend to be pretty old, and the events of WWII feel closer to them.

They're not that old!

Besides if they do think about WWII, what's to stop foreigners thinking of Tibet, the Korean War, Indian conflict, Vietnam, etc when responding to China?
 
D

Deleted member 675

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So you're saying China should perhaps start a war or two like the US, then her spending increase would be ok ?

Do you think the US should have invaded Iraq? If not, then China shouldn't do the same. Though if it wanted to invade North Korea (the only likely comparison) because of the WMD issue I don't think anyone would complain.

The point, which you of course missed, was that because the US has got involved in two conflicts the increases in its budget is more justifiable. The US did not make those military interventions so that it could increase the budget. If China was drawn into similar conflicts, increases in its spending would also be more understandable. However China is not involved in any such wars right now - it doesn't even contribute that much to peacekeeping.
 

Schumacher

Senior Member
Do you think the US should have invaded Iraq? If not, then China shouldn't do the same. Though if it wanted to invade North Korea (the only likely comparison) because of the WMD issue I don't think anyone would complain.

The point, which you of course missed, was that because the US has got involved in two conflicts the increases in its budget is more justifiable. The US did not make those military interventions so that it could increase the budget. If China was drawn into similar conflicts, increases in its spending would also be more understandable. However China is not involved in any such wars right now - it doesn't even contribute that much to peacekeeping.

US budget is justifiable because of the 2 conflicts ? That depends on whether the conflicts are justifiable doesn't it ?
Anyway, I think you've answered my question, ie you would've understood the PLA increases more had they started a conflict or two.
I thought u were simply against the idea of defence budget increases, but it seems u just wanted to know what they're for.
 

AmiGanguli

Junior Member
The rate increase is crucial, because it has a huge effect on whether other countries bump up their spending more than they may have originally planned. Japan is happy at 1% of GDP for now, but ever increasingly rapid growths in the Chinese budget are going to put pressure on the Tokyo government to shoot their spending up too.

As I asked, does China want to see that happen? I don't think it would, and you shouldn't if you believe Chinese policy is still being influenced by the last war.

But they're not raising it that quickly. Say they plan to double their military spending as a percentage of GDP. If they increase spending by 10% then they'll never reach their target - then they only track their GDP growth. If they increase spending by 20% then it will take them 7 years to reach their target. 15% will get them there in (roughly) 14 years. This is not very fast at all.

No one does, but what's the point of increasing it so sharply if your competitors then increase their's by a lot too? Surely it's better to increase spending at a slower, steady pace and not ruffle too many feathers. Then you have more of an advantage.

Sure, but there's a fine line here. You have to trade off diplomatic concerns against reaching your target in some reasonable time frame. In fact China seems to be doing ok in this respect. While diplomats might be making a bit of noise, there's been little concrete response in terms of limiting trade with China.

People in Europe and the Americas generally do not see China as a peaceful country. They see it as being increasingly beligerant and nationalistic.

Not from where I sit as a Canadian living in Finland. I guess it depends on which crowd you hang around with.

They're not that old!

I think the politburo is mostly in their 60s, born near the end of WWII. Their parents fought the Japanese, and they will personally remember the many changes in political relations with the Soviets and with the U.S. during the cold war. Also, there's a lot more continuity in the Chinese (and old Soviet) system of government. These guys will have spent their careers under the guidance of older members.

Besides if they do think about WWII, what's to stop foreigners thinking of Tibet, the Korean War, Indian conflict, Vietnam, etc when responding to China?

Nothing stops them. I'm sure they do think about these things. At least I have no doubt the planners in the Pentagon think this way.

... Ami.
 

Schumacher

Senior Member
........
People in Europe and the Americas generally do not see China as a peaceful country. They see it as being increasingly beligerant and nationalistic.
.........

U really should get out more, or as AmiGanguli says, look hard at the crowd u hang out with.

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bbc.co.uk

Press Releases
China is seen more favourably than US or Russia

Category: World Service

Date: 07.03.2005
Printable version

A BBC World Service survey suggests that China is viewed much more positively than either the United States or Russia by people in 22 countries.

The world views China almost as positively as it views Britain.

But the survey suggests a sharp division between views of China's economic success and concerns about any growth in its military power.

China is seen as having a mainly positive influence in the world by a majority or plurality of people in 14 countries, according to the international survey.

Particularly striking is that even in neighbouring Asian countries, that have historically shown substantial suspicion of China, views are relatively benign.

Most notable is India where 66% view China positively, despite decades of tension and a history of border clashes.

The findings of the new international survey mark the start of a week of special news reports and programmes on China across the BBC.

In none of the 22 countries polled did a majority of the public have a negative view of China's influence in the world.

But most people are negative about China significantly increasing her military power.

Phil Harding, BBC World Service Director of English Networks and News, said: "These findings provide a fascinating starting point for an unprecedented week of programmes from China.

"In China's World not only will we look at a wide range of Chinese life but we will also highlight the country's influence on the world.

"The season will include for the first time an edition of the ’phone-in programme, Talking Point, from Tsinghua University of Beijing.

"The arts programme, The Ticket, will be looking at the new Shanghai arts scene including new novels and the latest Shanghai pop.



"There will also be live news programmes and a fascinating series on the advances China is now making in modern science."

The survey, conducted by the international polling company, GlobeScan, together with the Programme on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland, suggests:

China is viewed nearly as positively as Britain by people polled worldwide – on average 50% see Britain as having a positive influence in the world compared to 48% for China;

On average across all 22 countries polled almost half (48%) see China's influence as positive and only 30% see it as negative and another 22% are noncommittal;

China's growing economic power is seen as positive in most countries. Asked what they think about China becoming significantly more powerful economically than it is today, on average 49% people see it as positive and 33% as negative. This positive view is found in countries such as Mexico (54% positive), whose manufacturing sectors face significant competition from China;

The view in neighbouring countries which historically have been suspicious of China is relatively benign. In India, 66% of people polled view China positively despite decades of tension. Positive views are also found in the Philippines (70%), Indonesia (68%) and Australia (56%). South Korea is divided (49% positive, 47% negative). In Japan 53% do not take a position either way;

While most people polled are positive about China significantly increasing her economic power, most people are negative about China significantly increasing its military power;

This includes EU nations which have a negative view of increasing Chinese military power; Germany 87% negative, Spain 76%, Italy 74%, Britain 65%, Poland 65%, France 64%. China's neighbour, India, was the most positive (56%) at the prospect of increased Chinese military power among those countries polled.

GlobeScan President Doug Miller said: "China clearly has the respect of the world because of its exceptional economic achievements, and most people seem to hope for its continued economic success.

"However, citizens worldwide are hoping that China will pursue a soft power approach."



Notes to Editors



The international poll was conducted in 22 countries from 15 November 2004 to 5 January 2005: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, Great Britain, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Philippines, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Turkey and USA.

In eight of the countries the sample was limited to major metropolitan areas. The sample size in all countries except Brazil, Philippines and Poland was 1,000 people or more.

GlobeScan is a global public opinion firm with a research network spanning 50 countries.

BBC World Service will carry special reports on China across its programme schedule during a week of special programming which starts on today (Monday 7 March).

About the BBC | Help | Terms of Use | Privacy & Cookies Policy
 
D

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U really should get out more, or as AmiGanguli says, look hard at the crowd u hang out with.

That coming from the man who's using outdated figures.

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ViewsCountries_Feb06_grph4.jpg


Look at that. Canada, the US, UK, Russia, France, Germany, Poland, Finland, Italy and South Korea all had more negative than positive views of China. Spain and Australia were the only "Western" countries to see China on balance positively. As a side note, I should have said "North America", given Central/South America don't really fit into the class of "Western" countries as was mentioned previously.

Now I'm not trying to say the developed world "hates" China, but it is not true to say it generally sees it as a peaceloving country that doesn't cause any trouble.

Schumacher, I think you're the one that needs to get out more, or indeed look at the crowd you hang out with, because if they have anything to do with your understanding of the world they're obviously not terribly bright.
 
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Schumacher

Senior Member
That coming from the man who's using outdated figures.

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[qimg]http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/images/feb06/ViewsCountries_Feb06_grph4.jpg[/qimg]

Look at that. Canada, the US, UK, Russia, France, Germany, Poland, Finland, Italy and South Korea all had more negative than positive views of China. Spain and Australia were the only "Western" countries to see China on balance positively. As a side note, I should have said "North America", given Central/South America don't really fit into the class of "Western" countries as was mentioned previously.

I think you're the one that needs to get out more, or indeed look at the crowd you hang out with, because if they have anything to do with your understanding of the world they're obviously not terribly bright.

Hmm, either you're trying to mislead others or simply does not understand the article u posted yourself.
In the chart ranking all countries, China is still ahead of US whose military budget u claim is justified. And the majority still see China as positive, but of course if u only care abt the opinions from western countries, I rest my case.
Suffice to say I prefer to look at all countries.
 
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