The Horn of Africa

Norfolk

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From 1998-2000 Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a high-intensity war that killed 70,000-80,000; since then, the UN has patrolled a demilitarized zone (the TMZ) between the two armies. Over the last few months the situation has been deteriorating, complicated by the fact that Ethiopian troops fighting in Somalia to support the internationally-recognized government have been opposed by rebels groups supported by Eritrea. In addition, Somali rebels in the Ogaden region of Ethiopia have been supported by Eritrea as well. Now, as Eritrea claims that Ethiopia has not lived up to the terms of the Peace Agreement of 2000, including evacuating the city of Badme on the border, two Eritrean army divisions, the 13th and 19th, have moved into the TMZ to "pick crops" and a curfew was imposed on a nearby town last week, even as the UN demands an Eritrean withdrawal. The situation, needless to say, is described as "tense".

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Some of the biggest battles in the last 20 years or so have been fought in the Horn of Africa. Ironically, one of the greatest battles fought since the Iran-Iaq War saw the destruction of an entire Ethiopian Army Corps (entire US Army only has 3 operational Army Corps)in 1988 by a rebel alliance composed of the forces of the current Ethipian and Eritrean Governments (both of whom were rebel groups fighting the then-government of Ethipia at the time). That feat was more or less repeated in 1991 when the same rebuilt Ethiopian Corps (Second Revolutionary Army) was defeated and 120,000 prisoners taken - greater than the haul taken in the same year during Desert Storm.

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Vlad Plasmius

Junior Member
Here's some more information on it:

The opposition Eritrean People Democratic Front (EPDF) today said, Eritrea recently has deployed over 25000 troops toward Ethiopia border.

“Eritrean 19 and 13 military division forces fully armed are deployed at the temporary security zone where UN peace keepers are deployed.” The opposition group said.

According to the EPDF’s statement Eritrea has break into the buffer zone, Temporary Security Zone, (TSZ) between the Eritrea and Ethiopia forces; and heavily started massing its troop

Ethiopia and Eritrea forces are now in less than 25 kms away from each other and recent tensions could break out in to a full war any time.

The group further said the government of Eritrea has imposed curfew in Senafe town and around.

Source:
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This is happening while there's talk of Ethiopia invading Northern Somalia and Ethiopia has been pulling out accusations that Eritrea is supporting the Islamic Courts Union and other resistance factions. I read there was even a meeting between the ICU and other Somali militants in Eritrea not to long ago. This has the potential of expanding into a major conflict with an American base in Djibouti wedged in between.

We backed Ethiopia against Somalia we may do the same with Eritrea, especially given Eritrea's ties with Iran.
 

crazyinsane105

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Here's some more information on it:



Source:
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This is happening while there's talk of Ethiopia invading Northern Somalia and Ethiopia has been pulling out accusations that Eritrea is supporting the Islamic Courts Union and other resistance factions. I read there was even a meeting between the ICU and other Somali militants in Eritrea not to long ago. This has the potential of expanding into a major conflict with an American base in Djibouti wedged in between.

We backed Ethiopia against Somalia we may do the same with Eritrea, especially given Eritrea's ties with Iran.


From what I understand, Eritrea is still a pretty deadly foe against Ethiopia. They played their game against the Ethiopians very effectively. I really can't see how Ethiopia can manage to fight two wars (Eritrea and Somalia) and handle their own homegrown rebellions without collapsing internally...
 

Violet Oboe

Junior Member
Well, Meles Zenawi did some ´dirty jobs´on behalf of the US like finishing off the iranian and saudi backed islamists in Mogadishu; so Washington owes the guy something...:D

Nevertheless the Zenawi regime is notoriously repressive and is squandering western aid on prestige projects and diverts more and more scarce resources to the military (...though Zenawi has indeed to address some threats like Eritrea, somali islamist rebels, oromo rebels in the south and tensions with Sudan.:().

The US strategy of building up Ethiopia as a ´christian´bulwark on the Horn of Africa (...just as in the old days of Haile Selassie) is seen with utmost suspicion by other US ´allies´like Egypt and Saudi Arabia; but as for damaging relations with allies just look at the current situation with Turkey!
(...what guys is Washington bent on propping up recently??:confused: Ethiopia, the Kurds... seems like bad trading by the US.)
 
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Norfolk

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There is real fear now that Ethiopia and Eritrea may only be weeks away from going to war again. Their border dispute remains unresolved, and both sides are massing troops on their shared border. BBC now reports that Eritrea has 4,000 troops within the 25 km wide TMZ, patrolled by only 1,700 UN troops, and another 120,000 near the TMZ itself; Ethiopia has 100,000 troops on its side of the TMZ.

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The International Crisis Group (ICG) which has been monitoring events, has also released a report on the deteriorating situation, coming as it does at a time when a formal report to the UN on the failure to resolve the border conflict is to be made. "Ethiopia and Eritrea: Stopping the Slide to War":

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Norfolk

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Originally from Voice of America -

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Thousands of Ethiopian Army troops have been in Somalia for several months now, fighting in support of the UN-recognized Government, whilst on the other side, the Union of Islamic Courts have received aid and assistance from Eritrea (in addition to Eritrea also aiding rebels in the Ogaden Desert on the Ethiopian side of the Somali border against the Ethiopian Government). Criminal gangs have their own deals to make and axes to grind, and as they see fit.

Despite the plight of tens of thousands of refugees from the fighting, the UN has been unable to assemble a Peacekeeping Force to return to Somalia; only Uganda has indicated its willingness to send troops.
 

Norfolk

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A Reuters article carried in the Sudan Tribune on Thursday 22 November 2007 -"Eritrea accuses Ethiopia of having 'declared war'":

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Apparently the "Eritrea Profile", a newspaper operated by the Eritrean Government, is claiming that Ethiopia is effectively in a state of war with Eritrea as it has not ceded all the Eritrean territory that it holds but was supposed to return by the end of this month under a standing UN agreement made in 2002; what is not mentioned by the Eritrean paper is that Eritrea also occupies a small amount of territory in the UN-patrolled TMZ (Treaty de-Militarized Zone).

The Reuters article states that some 100,000 troops on each side are stationed along the Eritrea-Ethipia borders. There are only 1,700 UN troops stationed in the 25 km-wide, 1,000 km-long TMZ between the two sides, and the withdrawal agreement deadline is at the end of this month.
 

Norfolk

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An article in the Sudan Tribune is reporting that more than 900 Eritrean Army troops have defected to Sudan in the midst of rebel attacks in the border region between the two countries.

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It would seem that conditions inside the Eritrean Army may not be good. And with the Tribune reporting that something like 250,000 Ethiopian and Eritrean troops are now on their common and much-disputed border with the Border Agreement resolution deadline about to expire in a few days' time, the Eritrean Army may not be in a very good condition to fight if a war were to break out.
 

Norfolk

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is reporting that tensions continue to rise on the Eritrea-Ethiopia frontier, with the small UN force inside the TMZ being effectively cut off from fuel supplies by Eritrea, and military preparations by both Armies not only continue, but so do advances by both Armies into the nominally UN-controlled TMZ in order to establish positions and field fortifications. Much more at the link.
 
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Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
This isn't exactly the Horn of Africa but it adds another layer to the miasma of violence that has engulfed the Sahel.

Chad rebels fight gov't force in capital By TOM MALITI, Associated Press Writer
43 minutes ago



NAIROBI, Kenya - Hundreds of rebels penetrated the capital of Chad on Saturday, clashing with government troops and moving on the presidential palace after a three-day advance through the oil-producing central African nation, officials and witnesses said.

Chad's ambassador to Ethiopia said the capital had not fallen and that President Idriss Deby was "fine" in his palace.

"The situation is under control," ambassador Cherif Mahamat Zene told The Associated Press. "The head of state is fine in his palace ... It's true that there are some rebels who have entered the city, but to say the city has fallen is false."

A French military spokesman, Col. Thierry Burkhard, said that Chadian government forces were pushing rebels away from the presidential palace but that the outcome of the fighting Saturday remained unclear.

Deby's whereabouts were unclear, the spokesman said, saying he could not confirm reports that Deby had remained in the presidential palace.

Chad, a French colony until 1960, has been convulsed by civil wars and invasions since independence, and the recent discovery of oil has only increased the intensity of the struggle for power in the largely desert country about three times the size of California.

The rebel force is believed to be a coalition of three groups, including the biggest led by former diplomat Mahamat Nouri, who defected 16 months ago, and a nephew of Deby's, Timan Erdimi. They long have been fighting to overthrow Deby, whom they accuse of corruption.

The rebels also have said they were unhappy with the president not providing enough support to rebels in Sudan's Darfur region, some of whom are from Deby's own tribe, the Zaghawa, who are found both Chad and Sudan.

The renewed fighting has led the European Union to delay its peacekeeping mission in both Chad and neighboring Central African Republic, which was due to be up and running early next month, said Commandant Dan Harvey, speaking at the EU military headquarters in Paris on Friday. The deployment of the advance force could be postponed for days, he said.

The force already has met repeated delays. It is aimed at protecting refugees from Darfur, which borders Chad, as well as protecting Chadians and Central Africans displaced by turmoil in their own countries.

The news that rebels reached Chad's capital broke just as African leaders were listening to the closing speeches of a three-day summit in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital. Representatives from the Chad delegation refused to comment to The Associated Press.

The new head of the African Union said that the bloc would not recognize Chadian rebels should they seize power.

"If the rebellion succeeds, certainly we will excommunicate them from the African Union until normalcy and democratic institutions are restored in that country, if it has to happen that way at all," Tanzania's President Jakaya Kikwete told a news conference.

The United Nations decided to temporarily evacuate all its staff from Chad's capital because of the fighting, said William Spindler, spokesman for the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees.

The U.S. Embassy said in a bulletin on its Web site that any American citizens seeking evacuation should immediately move to the embassy. State Department spokesman Karl Duckworth said the embassy had authorized the departure of nonessential personnel and family members.

"At this time the U.S. is monitoring the security situation closely," Duckworth said in a statement. "The serious violence that has occurred has not been directed at any U.S. personnel or facilities. We are taking all appropriate precautions to ensure the security of U.S. mission personnel and all American citizens in Chad."

France's embassy in Chad sent messages over Radio France Internationale telling citizens to head to the Lycee Francais high school and two other locations in N'Djamena, a French diplomatic official said on condition of anonymity because government policy barred him from providing his name.

Rebels said they would protect foreigners trying to evacuate N'Djamena.

"We will not stop the embassies from evacuating people," Mahamat Hassane Boulmaye of the Union of Forces for Democracy and Development told the AP. "We will try to protect them if it is necessary." He was reached on a Sudanese mobile telephone number and said he was speaking from Chad's border with Sudan.

Rebel forces have been advancing on the capital for three days in about 250 pickup trucks from the direction of the border with Sudan, about 500 miles to the east of N'Djamena.

A hotel operator at the Hotel le Meridien, about a mile from the headquarters of President Idriss Deby, said gunfire and explosions had been resounding through the capital since 7 a.m.

The man, who would not give his name, said he had not seen any rebels. The line went dead before a reporter could get more details. Other phone lines also were dead and the information could not immediately be confirmed.

Rebels in more than a dozen vehicles drove past the Libya Hotel, which overlooks the parliament building, said a man who answered the telephone at that hotel.

"I saw more than 15 vehicles and they (the rebels) were firing into the air," said the man, who also would not give his name. He said he also watched looters go into a police station opposite the hotel, stealing chairs and throwing papers on the ground.

Deby himself came to power at the head of a rebellion in 1990; he has won elections since, but none of the votes were deemed free or fair. He brought a semblance of peace after three decades of civil war and an invasion by Libya, but became increasingly isolated.

The most recent series of rebellions began in 2005 in the country's east, occurring at the same time as the conflict in Darfur saw a rise in violence. One Chadian rebel group launched a failed assault on N'Djamena, in April 2006.

The governments of Chad and Sudan repeatedly exchange accusations the one is backing the other's rebel groups.

U.N. officials estimate that around 3 million people have been uprooted by conflicts in the region, including the fighting in western Sudan's Darfur region and rebellions in Central African Republic.

France sent more troops late Thursday to boost a longtime military presence in Chad. About 1,500 French citizens live in Chad, most in N'Djamena.

It appeared that Chad's government might be getting less help from France than during previous rebel attempts to take the capital, said Henri Boshoff, a military analyst at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, South Africa.

Previously, "the French gave them intelligence using aerial reconnaissance and that allowed the Chad government to act," Boshoff told The Associated Press. "But it looks like this time it's too late, the rebels got too close to the city."

The difference could be that former President Jacques Chirac was leading France during the previous coup attempts, a leader who made every effort to project France as a friendly protector on the African continent. France's new president, Nicolas Sarkozy, has called for a "healthier relationship," saying it will not be business as usual with France's old corrupt allies on the continent.

Looks to me like France has gotten tired of supporting a failing and corrupt ally (South Vietnam anyone?) , although it doesn't make sense for them to allow the Chadian government to fall just as the peacekeepers get there. The rebels probably made a last all-out offensive to try to take the capital before the EU troops arrived. Perhaps some French airstrikes will halt the rebel columns yet.
 
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