The Clock is Ticking in China: The Decade of Concern Has Begun

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by AndrewS, Oct 18, 2017.

  1. AndrewS
    Offline

    AndrewS Senior Member
    Registered Member

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2015
    Messages:
    1,103
    Likes Received:
    1,602
    An article featured in Proceedings magazine, published by the US Naval Institute.

    Basically the author is saying that in order for China to have a grand anniversary ceremony in 2049, it needs to have conquered Taiwan by military means by 2030, and that such a military conflict is inevitable.

    But that theory is full of holes.

    Just to name a few.

    Even after 2030, China's economy and military capabilities will likely still be on an upwards ramp up, due to the time lag in converting China's larger economy into a stock of advanced weapons.

    And if China aims to be a hi-tech, content middle-class nation by 2049, isn't that the ultimate expression of the rejuvenation of the Chinese people, rather than military conquest?

    After this, I can understand why the author was "retired" from his post in the U.S. Pacific Fleet a few years ago, after a few too many public statements.

     
  2. Jura
    Offline

    Jura Senior Member

    Top Poster Of Month

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2013
    Messages:
    12,437
    Likes Received:
    17,526
    this appears to be a bellicose thread ... quoting some controversy dated November 10, 2014 ... personally I'm not too sensitive but ... recently there had been a thread, something like 'China without Tibet', and antics happened
     
    Equation likes this.
  3. Lethe
    Offline

    Lethe Junior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2014
    Messages:
    746
    Likes Received:
    973
    lol, I wondered if this was from Fanell. You should probably link the article in question:

    https://www.usni.org/magazines/proc...-clock-ticking-china-decade-concern-has-begun

    So the logic is that CCP wants to re-integrate Taiwan by 2049 in time for centenary celebrations, which means that the invasion must occur by 2030 to give the rest of the world time to forget about it so that they will be there cheering for China in 2049. The length of this "period of forgetting" is derived from the length of time between the Tiananmen Square massacre and the 2008 Beijing Olympics. So China will attack Taiwan by 2030 which means the US should attack China now (conclusion left unstated).

    Yeah.... ok. Lots of comments one could make here. But one thing that leaps out at me is this idea that China in 2049 is going to care what the rest world thinks of it, anymore than the US cares what the world thinks of it today.
     
    Equation and N00813 like this.
  4. AndrewS
    Offline

    AndrewS Senior Member
    Registered Member

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2015
    Messages:
    1,103
    Likes Received:
    1,602
    Whoops

    The link should be this one which was just published

    https://www.usni.org/magazines/proc...-clock-ticking-china-decade-concern-has-begun
     
  5. Deino
    Offline

    Deino Super Moderator
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2005
    Messages:
    7,268
    Likes Received:
    16,163
    Guys ... not sure if this thread will lead us to anywhere we would like to ...???
     
    Equation, FORBIN, Jura and 1 other person like this.
  6. Lethe
    Offline

    Lethe Junior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2014
    Messages:
    746
    Likes Received:
    973
    I dunno, there is the potential for lulz.

    But yeah, probably not.
     
  7. delft
    Offline

    delft Senior Member

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2009
    Messages:
    7,193
    Likes Received:
    6,686
    The article concerned is of no value whatever and the thread should be close. But I did enjoy myself reading it.
     
    N00813, Mike North and taxiya like this.
  8. taxiya
    Offline

    taxiya Senior Member
    Registered Member

    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2006
    Messages:
    2,097
    Likes Received:
    4,585
    It did serve the value of making a good laugh. :D

    I think by this time (2017) and onwards, people's attitude to such articles should have changed to "hahaha, whatever".
     
    delft and Mike North like this.
  9. Mike North
    Offline

    Mike North New Member
    Registered Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2016
    Messages:
    35
    Likes Received:
    38
    i laughed reading the article but i think this thread will go nowhere
     
  10. FORBIN
    Offline

    FORBIN Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2013
    Messages:
    12,877
    Likes Received:
    22,016
    #10 FORBIN, Oct 18, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2017

Share This Page