The Civil War in Libya

There seems to be scant details on the conflict in Libya regarding the actual military operations. Reports indicate that major cities have fallen to the rebels.

My question is, since Gaddafi has access to air support, how are the rebels so successful? I haven't heard of anything like air support and heavy artillery on the rebel's side.

Anyone have a better insight into this?

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Anybody know when Libya acquired Mirage fighters? They've been on an embargo for a long time.

Yes, Qaddafi has an air force, but the revolt is still spreading. I suppose this proves the old adage "you can't hold territory from the air".

Of course, air assets are going to be of limited utility because it's not like Qaddafi is trying to stop an advance by an invading Army. He's trying to stop the mental transition that happens in people's heads when they decide to side against him. Fighter jets are much less useful against an idea. Furthermore, I've read reports that many of the bombings were done with smaller ordinance, indicating that for a while Qaddafi was still trying to scare people rather than outright kill them. I'd be surprised if he hasn't already decided to switch to using cluster bombs and napalm and whatever else they can and abandoned even that pretense.

Remember, having air support will only help his ground forces if his ground forces themselves can stay cohesive. Put them in real combat, and they're in danger of breaking down as commanders and individual soldiers realize that they have a lot more to gain if they betray Qaddafi. Even very loyal paid mercenaries probably won't be willing to die for Qaddafi if they feel that there's no hope of winning.

I wish we could find out more about the specific course of the fighting. It seems that the rebels have secured the Eastern part of the country and Qaddafi has a tentative hold on the capital. Someone is going to have to take the offensive and assault the other's stronghold.

AssassinsMace said:

Anybody know when Libya acquired Mirage fighters? They've been on an embargo for a long time.

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I looked it up and wasn't able to find out when the deal was concluded. I did find that in 2009 France inked a deal with Lybia to sell 14 Rafales.

AssassinsMace said:

Anybody know when Libya acquired Mirage fighters? They've been on an embargo for a long time.

Click to expand...

this should answer your question:

Images of the arriving aircraft identify them as F1ED-standard fighters carrying the registrations 502 and 508. These were delivered to Libya in 1978, says Flightglobal's MiliCAS database. It lists the nation's air force as still having around 22 Mirage F1s in its inventory, although the majority of these are believed to not be in an operational condition.

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Regarding air support, I've read that one major base west of Tripoli, that was said to be involved in the air attacks against protesters, has now defected to the opposition. That's a major shift. I wonder how far defected air force personnal would be willing to go in support of the protesters.
Anyway, the regime continues to erode. That weakens their position further. I think this perception of being on the losing side is enough for the moment to make that trend continiue. The regime will have to achieve a big victory over the opposition and regain controll over important cities to get that situation to change. As long as the opposition movement is able to hold their gains and continiue the struggle, I now believe they will outlast the old regime, simply because it will countiniue to erode. Although it'll still be some time until it's over.
But there seem to be severe clashes in the capital now and the opposition seems to be able to make some gains in certain parts of the city. So after they got the east, and now some parts of the west along the cost they seem to get close to their destination.
But the picture is definately very blurred, really hard to make out the current situation.

Ghaddafi is clearly going down. But I'm curious to see what he will be replaced with. It looks like large parts of the top brass in the military will cut themselves off, and will likely take part, at least initially, in any new regime. A bit like Egypt or Tunisia, but much less "orderly".

I think the after Ghaddafi era will be at least a lot more diversified then Egypt and even Tunesia. Certain groups from within the military will form, there will probably be some clerics as well. But most importantly, I think the lines between theese groups will form along the clans wich are still pretty predominant in Libya. Especially after the one peak on top is gone.
It will take some time until they find back together, mostly those who opposed and those who supported Ghaddafi in the end.

I've consistently been surprised and impressed by the incredible courage that the Libyan protesters/revolutionaries have shown. I'm pretty jaded and am not easily shocked or impressed by scenes of violence and combat, but what I've read and seen in videos and articles out of Libya has really made me take note in a few cases. For example, in Bengahzi, the population held the large military base there essentially under siege for days with rocks, bricks, and homemade bombs. They commandeered bulldozers and protected the drivers with human shields so they could topple the walls. One man rigged his own car with propane tanks and makeshift explosives as a suicide bomb to blow open the gates.

It's one thing to go up against riot police. It's another thing to go up against soldiers who are reluctant to shoot and who have shaky discipline. But what these people were doing was something even more insane: they were fighting a fully armed modern military force, which didn't seem to have qualms about killing them at all. And they won.

Anyway, here's a video.