Publication: China Brief Volume: 16 Issue: 2
January 25, 2016 04:50 PM
By: Jacob Zenn
China’s growing global footprint, escalating conflicts and the spread of terrorism in theaters ranging from Syria to Afghanistan and Southeast Asia have created openings for non-state actors to target Chinese interests and citizens overseas. Accompanying China’s growing global footprint and the spread of terrorism in theaters ranging from Syria to Afghanistan and Southeast Asia have created openings for non-state actors to target Chinese interests and citizens overseas. Traditionally, militant groups within China arose from independence movements with ethnically-linked narratives. Their suppression within China, as well as China’s growing international exposure, led some of these groups to build relationships with international terrorist groups abroad: while they could not survive wholly within China, they found breathing room in the form of operational space with co-ethnics outside of the country. This is primarily the case for Uighur movements commonly referred to by the catch-all name “East Turkistan Independence Movement(s), or (ETIM).”
Given China’s rising engagement in the Middle East—from President Xi Jinping’s series of state visits this January, to a role in the Iran nuclear deal, to a growing military footprint on the peripheries of the region boosted by the recent commitment to building a base in Djibouti—an assessment of non-state terrorist threats, particularly from Al-Qaeda and its sub-affiliate, the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), and the Islamic State (IS) and its “Provinces,” to China, as well as Chinese perceptions of them, is appropriate. This assessment is useful in understanding the differences in costs to China’s human security versus national security objectives. As such, the knowledge of how non-state actors influence Chinese policy and actions is relevant for governments and analysts in assessing China’s foreign policy, as well as providing opportunities for engagement on issues of overlapping concern.
Al-Qaeda and Islamic State Threats to China
Al-Qaeda / Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP)
Anti-Chinese Uighur militants shifted from operating under the umbrella of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan to forming the TIP in 2006 (China Brief, May 23, 2014). Since then, the TIP has become part of Al-Qaeda’s structure. Although it is not an Al-Qaeda “affiliate” on the level of AQIM in Northwest Africa, Al-Shabaab in East Africa, AQAP in Yemen and Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria, the TIP now operates alongside Jabhat Al-Nusra and can be considered a “sub-affiliate.” Moreover, before the TIP adopted the Syrian war as its own cause in 2013 (in part to seek reciprocal support from jihadists for its goals in Xinjiang), leading Al-Qaeda figures, such as the late Khalid Al-Husaynan and late Abu Yahya Al-Libi, issued statements in support of the TIP (Terrorism Monitor, May 24, 2015). More recently, in 2015, Abdullah Al-Muhyasini, a Saudi preacher close to Jabhat Al-Nusra, also issued statements supporting the TIP (Islom Awazi, December 2, 2015). Al-Qaeda affiliates, such as AQIM and Al-Shabaab, have formally promoted the TIP and its cause to “liberate East Turkistan,” while the TIP, in turn, has also issued statements in support of mainstream Al-Qaeda figures, such as a eulogy for AQIM sharia official Abu al-Hassan Rashid al-Bulaydi on January 7, 2016.
Beyond its propaganda with Al-Qaeda, the TIP has often claimed responsibility for major operations domestically in China, including:
· Bus-bombings in several cities before the Beijing Olympics in 2008;
· A truck hit-and-run on pedestrians and mass stabbing attack in Kashgar on Ramadan Eve in 2011;
· A low-sophistication suicide car-bombing in Tiananmen Square in Beijing in October 2013;
· A mass stabbing at the Kunming Train Station in March 2014;
· An apparent double-suicide bombing (or suitcase bombing) at Urumqi Train Station in April 2014; and
· Car-bombings and explosions killing at an Urumqi market in May 2014 (Terrorism Monitor, May 24, 2015)
However, as TIP’s propaganda and fighters have shifted their focus from Afghanistan—and even Xinjiang—to Syria, the TIP has become involved in “cheerleading” attacks in Xinjiang than masterminding them. Rather, the “masterminding” of the most recent attacks in China appears to have been carried out by loosely inter-connected cells across the country. These cells have some coordination with each other as well as with Turkey-based Islamist organizations that run fake passport schemes and assist Uighur men and their families migrate from China through Southeast Asia to Turkey (and sometimes to the TIP or other settlements under rebel control in northwestern Syria) (Today’s Zaman, January 14, 2015; Yenisafak.com, June 30, 2014).
While the TIP may be primarily a propaganda platform for recent attacks in Xinjiang, Istanbul-based East Turkistan Education and Solidarity Association (ETESA) also praises—or at least justifies—attacks. These include the aforementioned attacks as well as others that the TIP has not claimed, such as the assassination of the pro-Chinese Communist Party leading imam at the Id Kah mosque in Kashgar in 2014, and a large-scale attack at a coal mine in Xinjiang in October 2015 (SCMP, July 30, 2014). Either these attacks occurred outside the scope of the TIP or were so locally ordered and executed (and minimally reported on outside of China) that the foreign-based TIP did not take notice.
The Islamic State
The Islamic State brought China into its focus in 2015, although a predecessor to the Islamic State in Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS) featured at least one Chinese fighter in its propaganda as early as 2013 (YouTube, March 18, 2013) The Islamic State’s more recent focus on the Uighurs may have been a reaction to the increasing numbers of Uighurs—reportedly up to 1,000 fighters—fighting in the TIP (and therefore with Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat Al-Nusra). The Islamic State’s promotion of the status and cause of Uighurs in its ranks included:
· Two videos and tweeted photos of an elderly Uighur man who made “hijra” (exodus or migration) from Xinjiang to Syria with his family (shanghaiist.com, June 4, 2015);
· Suicide attack “martyrdom” claims of Uighurs (and other Central Asians) in Syria and Iraq; and
· An Islamic State-produced nasheed (Islamic chant) in Mandarin Chinese, which represented a general outreach to Chinese Muslims, including Huis, Kazakhs, and possibly Uighurs who speak Mandarin more fluently than Uighur (although the quality of this nasheed was lower than typical Arabic language ones.
For China, the recruitment of TIP jihadists—China’s traditional opponent—into Islamic State represents an evolved and hitherto unknown threat. While these recruits arguably make the TIP weaker, higher levels Uighur militancy in the Islamic State is a “devil that China does not know.” It is possible that the Islamic State could generate traction within China where, since 2006, the TIP has not—that is, if the Islamic State has the tools to be as effective in social media and propaganda outreach in a more closed media environment like China as compared to Europe.
The Islamic State has also likely begun to compete with the TIP in recruiting Uighurs along the trafficking networks in Southeast Asia that assist Uighurs to travel to Turkey and Syria. Four Uighurs stood trial in Indonesia in 2015 for trying to meet with the Mujahidin Indonesia Timor (MIT) in Sulawesi, which is a militant group based in Central Sulawesi, whose leader, Santoso, pledged loyalty to Al-Baghdadi in 2014 (Jakartapost, December 1, 2015). In addition, numerous Islamist organizations in Indonesia have expressed support for the Islamic State and served as feeders for Islamic State recruitment in Syria and Iraq. One man known as Alli, was part of a group of three Uighur militants arrested outside of Jakarta in December 2015 with a bomb-making manual and lists of jailed Indonesian terrorists, as well as Indonesians in Syria who joined the Islamic State. Counterterrorism officials suspected members connected to this cell were involved in the Erawan Shrine bombing in Bangkok, Thailand on August 17, 2015 (Bangkok Post, December 26, 2015). Alli was also reported to be part of the network of Al-Raqqa-based Indonesian Islamic State militant Bahrun Naim before Naim masterminded a series of attacks in Jakarta on January 14, 2016 (Jakarta Globe, December 24, 2015; Time.com, December 28, 2015).
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