Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.
- Thread starter Gollevainen
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New Chinese Strategy?
I came across the following article on the web, which claims that China's leadership has realigned their near-term military ambitions with regard to Taiwan:
According to this article, the Chinese government is moving towards a strategy that would focus on bombarding Taiwan - rather than an outright amphibious invasion - to enforce a "one China" policy, in the event that Taiwan ever declares independence.
The aim of this strategy would be to restore the status quo (no Taiwanese independence, but no direct rule from Beijing), rather than attempting a costly invasion that would take much longer and have less likelihood of success.
An interesting thought. I would expect that from Taiwan's perspective, such a shift in strategy would move anti-ballistic missile systems (most likely Patriot PAC3 missiles) further up their wish list for new and expanded weapons systems. Guess we'll have to see if there is any real shift in Taiwan's defense strategy over the coming year.
I came across the following article on the web, which claims that China's leadership has realigned their near-term military ambitions with regard to Taiwan:
According to this article, the Chinese government is moving towards a strategy that would focus on bombarding Taiwan - rather than an outright amphibious invasion - to enforce a "one China" policy, in the event that Taiwan ever declares independence.
The aim of this strategy would be to restore the status quo (no Taiwanese independence, but no direct rule from Beijing), rather than attempting a costly invasion that would take much longer and have less likelihood of success.
An interesting thought. I would expect that from Taiwan's perspective, such a shift in strategy would move anti-ballistic missile systems (most likely Patriot PAC3 missiles) further up their wish list for new and expanded weapons systems. Guess we'll have to see if there is any real shift in Taiwan's defense strategy over the coming year.
Re: New Chinese Strategy?
Well when China started adding missiles aimed at Taiwan at a rate of about 100+ a year starting several years ago, I would have expected Taiwan to aggressively pursue ABM capabilities then. Unfortunately, politics doesn't always stop at the water's edge.
I don't think China's strategy of using a missile campaign is anything new at all. Whether the strategy is to coerce submission to status quo with or without a ground occupation, the likely use of the missiles is to take out as much resistance (physical and psychological) as possible before continuing on other campaigns (air strikes, blockade, amphibious or air landings, etc).
Well when China started adding missiles aimed at Taiwan at a rate of about 100+ a year starting several years ago, I would have expected Taiwan to aggressively pursue ABM capabilities then. Unfortunately, politics doesn't always stop at the water's edge.
I don't think China's strategy of using a missile campaign is anything new at all. Whether the strategy is to coerce submission to status quo with or without a ground occupation, the likely use of the missiles is to take out as much resistance (physical and psychological) as possible before continuing on other campaigns (air strikes, blockade, amphibious or air landings, etc).
Re: New Chinese Strategy?
do you guys possibly think that the chinese will kill innocent civilians using interconential ballistic missiles in Taiwan? well i know that the missiles aiming at taiwan is threatening to a certain degree and i do find that disturbing, but what do you think the chinese feel about the Minutemen IIs ICBM which are ready to fire upon the Chinese at any moment.....
(this isnt intended for a Flame Topic)
do you guys possibly think that the chinese will kill innocent civilians using interconential ballistic missiles in Taiwan? well i know that the missiles aiming at taiwan is threatening to a certain degree and i do find that disturbing, but what do you think the chinese feel about the Minutemen IIs ICBM which are ready to fire upon the Chinese at any moment.....
(this isnt intended for a Flame Topic)
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Re: New Chinese Strategy?
I think that Taiwan's procurement strategy has been senisble because the threat of invasion is still a real one and still represents the greatest threat to survival. Thus they have "signed the deal" for the diesel subs, P-3s and are in the market for more F-16s. It would seem to me that it is logical for the ROC military to focus on the threat with the greatest ability to destroy the nation.
But still they could always stand to get more ABM defences (really China has ensured that the threat to Taiwan is so large and multi-faceted that the ROC military could always use more or better equipment).
I think that Taiwan's procurement strategy has been senisble because the threat of invasion is still a real one and still represents the greatest threat to survival. Thus they have "signed the deal" for the diesel subs, P-3s and are in the market for more F-16s. It would seem to me that it is logical for the ROC military to focus on the threat with the greatest ability to destroy the nation.
But still they could always stand to get more ABM defences (really China has ensured that the threat to Taiwan is so large and multi-faceted that the ROC military could always use more or better equipment).
ffRe: New Chinese Strategy?
I am a proponent of more ABM defenses too, but it's difficult to address the oppositions' arguments that 1. they are not very effective -- how effective are they anyway? Some speculate that the single shot probability of kill of the PAC 3s used by the USArmy in DESERT STORM were less than 25%. Of course they would be better now, but how much better? 2. They are expensive -- It's always more costly to deploy defensive missiles than offensive. Every missile that China aims at Taiwan is way cheaper than each PATRIOT missile that Taiwan buys from the U.S., and this would just lead Taiwan down the road of losing an arms race.
I am a proponent of more ABM defenses too, but it's difficult to address the oppositions' arguments that 1. they are not very effective -- how effective are they anyway? Some speculate that the single shot probability of kill of the PAC 3s used by the USArmy in DESERT STORM were less than 25%. Of course they would be better now, but how much better? 2. They are expensive -- It's always more costly to deploy defensive missiles than offensive. Every missile that China aims at Taiwan is way cheaper than each PATRIOT missile that Taiwan buys from the U.S., and this would just lead Taiwan down the road of losing an arms race.
Pointblank
Senior Member
Re: New Chinese Strategy?
They can use PATRIOT to protect high value targets from missile attack, such as command and control centers, important airfields, etc.
They can use PATRIOT to protect high value targets from missile attack, such as command and control centers, important airfields, etc.
D
Deleted member 675
Guest
Re: New Chinese Strategy?
They haven't signed anything. The legislative paid up $US 6 million or so to fund a study into the project. I'll play devil's advocate and say that after positive reports from the US companies bidding (e.g. that they have European partners) I expect some decent money to be authorised this year to get the project properly moving - but there is no certainty of that happening.
I'd advise reading the Taiwanese media over the coming weeks as the 2008 budget is discussed and voted on by the legislative defence committee. If it keeps funding for the PAC-3 batteries and SSKs, you can be pretty confident they'll pass the second reading too.
Taiwan has been developing the Sky Bow III missile since the late 90s. I'm not sure when it is expected to enter service, but they are taking the project seriously.
I don't know what the exact statistics are now, but I know that it's a lot more 25%. Your dates are wrong - PAC-3 was not used in Desert Storm. The US Army didn't even have PAC-2 GEM back then, let alone PAC-3.
They haven't signed anything. The legislative paid up $US 6 million or so to fund a study into the project. I'll play devil's advocate and say that after positive reports from the US companies bidding (e.g. that they have European partners) I expect some decent money to be authorised this year to get the project properly moving - but there is no certainty of that happening.
I'd advise reading the Taiwanese media over the coming weeks as the 2008 budget is discussed and voted on by the legislative defence committee. If it keeps funding for the PAC-3 batteries and SSKs, you can be pretty confident they'll pass the second reading too.
Taiwan has been developing the Sky Bow III missile since the late 90s. I'm not sure when it is expected to enter service, but they are taking the project seriously.
I don't know what the exact statistics are now, but I know that it's a lot more 25%. Your dates are wrong - PAC-3 was not used in Desert Storm. The US Army didn't even have PAC-2 GEM back then, let alone PAC-3.
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