Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

Mr T

Senior Member
Jura, thanks for posting the article.

Well, there goes any chance of buying any other big ticket items in the 2020s.

This isn't a foreign military sale (no notification on the DSCA website), it's just authorisation for US firms to assist with the submarine project. And because there's no declared value for the work US companies might be doing, I think it would be fairly easy for Washington to shrug off Chinese criticism, like it does when small arms sales go through.
 

Franklin

Captain
Jura, thanks for posting the article.



This isn't a foreign military sale (no notification on the DSCA website), it's just authorisation for US firms to assist with the submarine project. And because there's no declared value for the work US companies might be doing, I think it would be fairly easy for Washington to shrug off Chinese criticism, like it does when small arms sales go through.
Or maybe this is just part of the "art of the deal". The US wants to maximize pressure on China to give trade concessions and Taiwan was a tool in that. Once China and the US settles their trade issue's all the goodies promised to Taiwan will be withdrawn.
 

Skywatcher

Captain
Jura, thanks for posting the article.



This isn't a foreign military sale (no notification on the DSCA website), it's just authorisation for US firms to assist with the submarine project. And because there's no declared value for the work US companies might be doing, I think it would be fairly easy for Washington to shrug off Chinese criticism, like it does when small arms sales go through.
I was thinking of a budget crunch, they'll be spending at least $5-7 billion in the 2020s.
 

Mr T

Senior Member
Or maybe this is just part of the "art of the deal". The US wants to maximize pressure on China to give trade concessions and Taiwan was a tool in that. Once China and the US settles their trade issue's all the goodies promised to Taiwan will be withdrawn.

This theory has been peddled ever since Trump because President, and I still haven't seen any evidence that he's using Taiwan as a bargaining chip.

It's important to remember that Trump is not a dictator who can do whatever he likes. Once something has crossed his desk and he's signed it, he can't just pull it back. Xi knows this - he's not stupid. If Trump did try to have the licence revoked, Republican lawmakers would be on him very quickly and probably push through legislation in Congress that did the same thing.

I haven't read anything to suggest that Trump personally approved the licence. But if he did, my guess is that he only gave it cursory consideration, and there's no reason to believe it was authorised deliberately as a bargaining chip.

Trump's currently playing for big money. He's not going to accept the equivalent of a poorly-made fluffy toy as a token gesture. Would China really give him the big concessions he wants, just to limit the ability for US firms to provide assistance on Taiwan's submarine project, which was probably always going to go ahead one way or another, with or without official support from countries like the US? That seems unlikely.

If China makes trade concessions, it's going to be because it decides it's more cost-effective than toughing out US trade restrictions.

I was thinking of a budget crunch, they'll be spending at least $5-7 billion in the 2020s.

Ah.

Well, even if Taiwan doesn't increase defence spending, the cost of the submarine project will be spread out considerably. I think it will be the major project for the Navy in the coming decade, but the Army and Airforce will still get their own spending.
 

Skywatcher

Captain
China would want a lot more for trade concessions that just embargoing some submarine equipment.

$7 billion, along with the other things in the planned naval build up (i.e. those white elephant air defense destroyers, if they haven't been put on permanent backburner like that absurd long range ramjet LACM) will easily eat up the lion's share of ROC MND acquisition in the 2020s.

The ROCA and ROCAF can still get things like new MRLS batteries or the next batch of HF-II LACMs, but no big ticket items like a couple brigades of medium range SAM batteries, large drones or new fighters, whether foreign or a F-CK-1 follow up.
 

druid84

New Member
I've read that Taiwan cancelled the air defence destroyers and is instead focusing on smaller frigates (I think similar to FREMM's or Akizuki destroyers) around 5000 tons and not 10000 tons.
 

Mr T

Senior Member
I've read that Taiwan cancelled the air defence destroyers and is instead focusing on smaller frigates (I think similar to FREMM's or Akizuki destroyers) around 5000 tons and not 10000 tons.

I've read conflicting reports on that. For example, in 2016 there was an announcement of a 20+ year shipbuilding programme, which included an Aegis-like vessel (reportedly between 6,000 and 8,000 tonnes). Now, it's hard to say if that's just a vision of the sort that governments leave to their successors to deal with, or an actual plan that might be followed through on. We are talking about the long-term here, so anything is possible.

But my understanding is that any future air defence vessel is not yet funded. Resources are going into submarines, LPDs, minelayers and more corvettes.
 
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Skywatcher

Captain
I've read conflicting reports on that. For example, in 2016 there was an announcement of a 20+ year shipbuilding programme, which included an Aegis-like vessel (reportedly between 6,000 and 8,000 tonnes). Now, it's hard to say if that's just a vision of the sort that governments leave to their successors to deal with, or an actual plan that might be followed through on. We are talking about the long-term here, so anything is possible.

But my understanding is that any future air defence vessel is not yet funded. Resources are going into submarines, LPDs, minelayers and more corvettes.
IIRC, those early plans called for catamaran frigates, which was sensibly changed to a conventional hull.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
I've read that Taiwan cancelled the air defence destroyers and is instead focusing on smaller frigates (I think similar to FREMM's or Akizuki destroyers) around 5000 tons and not 10000 tons.
The Akizuki at full load is lamost 7,000 tons...truly a decent DDG vessel.

The Taiwan four vessel DDG of the old, but upgraded, Kee Lung class, former US Kidd=class, is a very decent DDG and very capable to this day. The Twin dual arm launchers can punp out a LOT of standard missiles, and their radar is strong, though not APAR, the do have the New Threat Upgrad which means any US AEGIS DDG can do cooperative engagement with them, which would be very strong if ever needed and used.
 
Tuesday at 7:23 AM
according to DefenseNews US State Department OKs license for submarine tech sales to Taiwan
source:
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related (mildly political):
US Says Yes to Taiwan Submarine Program
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The April 7 approval by the US Department of a marketing license that allows US manufacturers to sell submarine technology to Taiwan is the latest and most significant notice that John Bolton is back.

Bolton, a super-hawk described as “Dick Cheney times two” in a
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, was picked on March 22 to replace HR LeMaster as National Security Adviser by US President Donald Trump. Bolton has long argued that the US could enhance its East Asia military posture by increasing military sales to Taiwan and even stationing US military on the island. Although he wasn’t formally appointed until April 9, the announcement that he would take over is regarded as playing a role in the situation.

Taiwan’s long-delayed plans to build eight diesel-electric submarines domestically had been stymied until the approval. The plans have now passed their first critical hurdle, although numerous obstacles remain. The Taiwanese navy currently only has two older boats that could be used for combat and has for two decades sought US help in obtaining new ones, either by buying or building domestically with foreign help.

It is no secret that modern submarines, next to nuclear weapons, are what China wants to see the least under Taiwanese command, given that they could greatly complicate any Chinese plans for an amphibious invasion across the 180-km strait or a naval blockade against the island.

“The approval of the marketing license is significant as it will enable Taiwan to move forward with the submarine program knowing that it will in fact be able to have the necessary technology and weapon systems to make it work,” said Steve Tsang, Director of the University of London’s SOAS China Institute, in an interview with the Asia Sentinel.

“This has more to do with the changed atmosphere in the USA over relations with the PRC than with Bolton’s new appointment, though the appointment of Bolton must have helped and itself reflects the toughening up of the attitude towards Beijing in Washington,” Tsang added.

US President George W Bush promised Taiwan arms sales in 2001 that included Kidd class destroyers, anti-submarine warfare weapons and submarines. They were delayed due to the legislature in Taiwan interfering along with a dispute with the US over the down payment. The US has insisted on defining all arms sales to Taiwan as defensive, so as to continue a high degree of “strategic ambiguity,” with both China and the US wary of provoking the other.

In 2005, the Taiwan government under the anti-China Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) proposed a special budget for the purchase of new boats, but also this got bogged down in political disputes.

During the presidency of Ma Ying-jeou (2008-16), who headed the China-friendly Kuomintang (KMT), the idea was put on the back burner over the notion that Taiwan did not need to spend more on defense as relations with China were good.

But China-Taiwan relations took a nosedive when Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP became president in 2016, as reflected by China unilaterally cutting official ties with the island, and the Chinese military frequently staging military maneuvers near Taiwan.

This return to an Ice Age between China and Taiwan has gone into the freezer with Trump embarking on an increasingly aggressive crusade against China over its allegedly unfair trade practices and Beijing’s construction of military bases in international waters in the South China Sea, among other bones of contention.

“Guaranteeing freedom of the seas, deterring military adventurism and preventing unilateral territorial annexations are core US interests in East and Southeast Asia,” Trump’s new security adviser Bolton wrote last year. “Today, as opposed to 1972 [when the US switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei’s Republic of China to Beijing’s People’s Republic], a closer military relationship with Taiwan would be a significant step toward achieving these objectives.”

The devil’s in the nitty-gritty

In August 2016 the Taiwanese defense ministry announced new navy programs, including 12 new shipbuilding and force modernisation initiatives covering 23 years at a cost of US$14.7 billion. That was followed in March 2017 with a Memorandum of Understanding signed with a local shipbuilder, CSBS Corporation, and the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology to design the vessels in 2017–20.

US manufacturers would still need to obtain export permits for parts and components before assembly, with the completion date of the new program far from certain. That seems baked into the situation. The complexity of development and construction, for instance, has meant that submarine the programs of India, South Korea and Australia were all delayed beyond the initial timelines.

It won’t help that China will exert maximum political pressure on the few foreign countries that could or would be willing to assist Taiwan, including France, Germany and Japan.

The US defense industry will not be of much support beyond supplying parts and components, given that it has for decades been building nuclear-powered boats only, thus lacking diesel-electric expertise.

And, John F Copper, a US political scientist and Taiwan expert, pointed out that Taiwan building its own subs means they could be prohibitively expensive since the government probably won’t be able build in larger numbers to sell them.

“Taiwan has budget problem, and businesses are complaining of taxes, government regulations and so forth,” Copper said. “Health care is getting more expensive due to aging in Taiwan, and also the Taiwanese military currently going to an all-volunteer service is expensive and has problems.”

Trump, Copper said in an interview, seems to want to pick a fight with China, as certainly suggested by the US’s new punitive tariffs on Chinese products. The decision to give the initial nod to Taiwan’s submarine program also seems related to Trump’s school of thought that the most productive way in negotiations is to start a fight or crisis and then negotiate with China.

“I would also link it to the fact the US is already in an election phase and Trump does not want to allow the Democrats the bash-China issue,” Copper said.

“During every election campaign recently politicians have bashed China, and Trump does not want the Demos to make a lot of this issue as it could help them in the election,” he added.
 
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