Ukrainian War Developments

Mr T said:

You make it sound like Russia is awash with money, when it's still quite fragile and has real problems with poverty and a lack of social services. They should be investing at home, not abroad.

Russia's economy is quite reliant on energy sales. As not just the EU and North America but also China, South Korea and Japan will have to wean themselves off oil and gas to avoid catastrophic climate change, Russia is going to be in real trouble in the coming decades.

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So does the US. Yet Russia is actually investing in these things unlike what you say. For example they are renewing their school and hospital park. The Moscow metro has had a massive expansion as well. Their federal government has dumped loads of money into improving road infrastructure and building new bridges. They have been doing this for like a decade already.

Russia's economy is much less reliant on energy sales than other oil exporting nations. Saudi Arabia tried to break Russia's economy with their supposedly cheaper to extract oil and failed. Precisely because Russia does not depend on just oil. They can feed themselves unlike Saudi Arabia. They have a real economy. The fact is Russia does not import a whole lot of stuff to begin with. They are mostly self reliant. In case of a crash of exports they can still survive fine.

escobar said:

US LNG

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1482012990660661252

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Lol. You believe this shit? Try doing the math on US LNG export capacity. They could use it all and it would barely exceed the capacity of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline alone. And there is a Nord Stream 1 and loads more pipelines like Turk Stream, Blue Stream, the Yamal pipeline, etc. And yes the pipelines in Ukraine.

This news is BS. It is like in one single day wind power is enough to cover all production demands in some place and you claim you can power everything with wind. Then next day the wind power output is like 20% of total requirements as the wind falls down. On average wind powers like 25%. It can't replace all other power sources. Same deal here.

It takes at least 4 years if not a decade to build new gas liquefaction and port facilities, natural gas tankers, etc. And it will be more expensive and more polluting than piped gas. The US extracts a lot of natural gas, but most of it is flared out in shale extraction facilities. The amounts produced per well are minute and too expensive to pipe in the first place. The US does not have a pipeline infrastructure good enough to supply its own needs let alone move the gas in those amounts for export. That is how you see the US East Coast buying Russian LNG while a gas pipeline that would supply gas to it has been in the plans for decades but never gets built.

gelgoog said:

Europe will replace this gas with what exactly? There is no plan to replace it nor is there alternative technology like large batteries available for it at cost effective price.

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Renewables. I assume you have seen how quickly battery development has advanced recently.
Check out CATL investment in LFP and other technologies which will come out by 2030
With the EV industry driving battery R&D, development will accelerate on this field.

Btw I am not talking about gas reserves, my post is about exports. Currently Russia is quite a lot reliant from gas sales

gelgoog said:

Russia's investment into agriculture

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Yes, this is good. Russia has advanced quite a lot in agriculture. They could become an agricultural "superpower" in the future.

gelgoog said:

and drive towards nationalization of the civilian transport industry etc are already movements in the direction of further Russian self reliance.

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I didn't know about this so I can't comment. Self-reliance is good though

escobar said:

US LNG

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1482012990660661252

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Lol US LNG
Are you trying to bankrupt EU's industry or what..

Its beneficial for the US though. The decision on what to do depends on if the EU are muppets or not

Overbom said:

Renewables. I assume you have seen how quickly battery development has advanced recently.
Check out CATL investment in LFP and other technologies which will come out by 2030
With the EV industry driving battery R&D, development will accelerate on this field.

Btw I am not talking about gas reserves, my post is about exports. Currently Russia is quite a lot reliant from gas sales

Yes, this is good. Russia has advanced quite a lot in agriculture. They could become an agricultural "superpower" in the future.

I didn't know about this so I can't comment. Self-reliance is good though

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Renewables? Batteries? They aren't cheap enough. The sun does not shine all day and the wind does not blow all the time either. Batteries are too expensive at this time. And if you think there is a shortage of lithium now with the current limited electric car production imagine you tried to use lithium for electricity grid backup. None of the major proposed grid storage batteries use lithium cell chemistry. The best is something like a flow battery. But even those are too expensive to be built and used on such a large scale.

Russia has a production license to produce European designed train locomotives in Russia with high local native content. They also are investing on making the MC-21 and Superjet 100% built in Russia.

Overbom said:

Lol US LNG
Are you trying to bankrupt EU's industry or what..

Its beneficial for the US though. The decision on what to do depends on if the EU are muppets or not

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Perhaps the EU is interested in a long term economic malaise similar to the one Japan has been going through over the last decades. Then again the EU economy is already in a deep depression so would people even notice? Maybe when they started freezing to death in the winter.

W20 said:

"It's Russia that's been the aggressive side"

(!?)

The State Department knew perfectly well that Ukraine was divided into two sides, and precisely because of that it provoked a civil war, which has caused thousands of fatalities and hundreds of thousands of displaced persons. And currently the supposedly American State Department is headed by two grandsons of Ukrainians: Antony Blinken and Victoria "fxxx EU" Nuland

The world of fantasies in which the minds of the Angloempire 2.0 live is unbelievable.

On the other hand Crimea is Russia before Miami, Texas, Nevada, California ... were USA

And now you will tell me that the State Department is defending a decision of internal administrative organization within the Soviet Union in the 1950s.

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The criminal leadership of the neocon/neolib US should have been sanctioned into oblivion for funding and organizing the coup that toppled the government of Ukraine in 2014. Idiotic European nations, with their servile/complicit behavior, are enabling US aggression across the globe, bringing us closer to an open global war.

Instead of confronting a criminal regime , they aid and abet it openly. Just imagine France, Great Britain , offering bases, economic support to Nazi Germany. This is absolutely insane and highly dangerous. The neocon/neolib regime will continue to commit acts of aggression until it faces a united front that will make it pay a serious price for its malign behavior on the international stage.

Overbom said:

Lol US LNG
Are you trying to bankrupt EU's industry or what..

Its beneficial for the US though. The decision on what to do depends on if the EU are muppets or not

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Europe could even end the Russian gas supply monopoly by changing its energy strategy, but that would be very expensive. For example, American LNG would have to be imported by ships, this is a less efficient way of delivering the gas than through pipelines, and definitely much more expensive.

Europe became so dependent on Russian gas simply because the prices were much more advantageous than if another import strategy were adopted, the European industry is so competitive in the global market because of Russian gas, especially the German industry that depends on prices energy to produce, taking that advantage away from Europe's industry would definitely suffocate the European market.

First, the continent could diversify its energy consumption. According to EU statistics, 41% of the bloc's natural gas comes from Russia, while 16% comes from Norway. Another 8% comes from Algeria and 5% is delivered from Qatar (import by ships that logistically speaking passes through several critical bottlenecks: Strait of Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandab and the Suez Canal).

It is worth remembering that the NATO-intervention War in Syria began with Assad's refusal to pass the Qatar pipeline to deliver gas to Europe, thus reducing the prices of Qatari imports by ships and reducing dependence on Russian gas. .

This idea was replaced by the import of gas from Azerbaijan which chose the shortest Trans-Adriatic pipeline, which runs from Greece to Italy. That option had replaced the idea of a gas pipeline linking Qatar to Syria, from where it would go to Europe – an idea neither Qatar nor Syria liked; the latter supposedly to protect Russian gas interests in Europe. The Syrian civil war put an end to this idea altogether.

Meanwhile, Qatar is free to deliver gas via known shipping lanes; if it chooses to invest in a long-term gas relationship with Europe, the pipeline option will have to be reconsidered.

Another alternative source to consider is Israel. The Israelis signed an agreement to supply gas to the European market through pipelines, where the route would pass through Cyprus, Greece and Italy.

But completely replacing Russian supplies will take a long time. And at this moment, if the supply is suspended, there will be a human and economic catastrophe in Europe that will affect the entire bloc. It will take them down.

Matheus S said:

Another alternative source to consider is Israel. The Israelis signed an agreement to supply gas to the European market through pipelines, where the route would pass through Cyprus, Greece and Italy

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Are you talking about EastMed?
Don't worry the US is on that as well

The United States is no longer supporting the construction of EastMed gas pipeline project as Washington’s interest is now switching to renewable energy sources, according to a State Department statement. According to Greek media, the move profits Turkey.

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The US will one way or another get its LNG to Europe

Mr T said:

You make it sound like Russia is awash with money, when it's still quite fragile and has real problems with poverty and a lack of social services. They should be investing at home, not abroad.

Russia's economy is quite reliant on energy sales. As not just the EU and North America but also China, South Korea and Japan will have to wean themselves off oil and gas to avoid catastrophic climate change, Russia is going to be in real trouble in the coming decades.

Putin has no credible plans to change Russia's economic balance. Rather he seems to be doubling down, banking on global efforts to deal with climate change failing and Russia somehow prevailing amidst the charred remains of burnt counties ravaged by civil war, mass population displacement and natural disasters.

Or perhaps he plans on being dead by then so he doesn't have to deal with the problems caused by a severe drop in demand for Russian energy.


Europe has given Russia a lot of leeway in the past. Germany kept pushing ahead with pipelines to Russia. NATO stood back and didn't try to use military force to stop Russia annexing the Crimea or invading Georgia. It's Russia that's been the aggressive side in the last few decades, and it's had a lot of chances to change its behaviour. Talking about Russia's "red lines" is like describing the school bully who has a list of how much lunch money other students are expected to hand over.

When, in 2200? I've seen predications about the American economy "collapsing" ever since I joined the forum. It's not happening anytime soon. In fact as I mentioned above, it's more likely the Russian economy goes down the crapper first.

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Second law of thermodinamics disagree with your ( and with the average green politician )

The life without oil and gas is like the pure comunism, no one seen it real life, only in propaganda .


I don't want to waste my time for other parts of your trolling, but regards of Georgia, even the NATO doesn't share your view.

Georgia was the agressor.

gelgoog said:

Renewables? Batteries? They aren't cheap enough. The sun does not shine all day and the wind does not blow all the time either. Batteries are too expensive at this time. And if you think there is a shortage of lithium now with the current limited electric car production imagine you tried to use lithium for electricity grid backup. None of the major proposed grid storage batteries use lithium cell chemistry. The best is something like a flow battery. But even those are too expensive to be built and used on such a large scale.

Russia has a production license to produce European designed train locomotives in Russia with high local native content. They also are investing on making the MC-21 and Superjet 100% built in Russia.



Perhaps the EU is interested in a long term economic malaise similar to the one Japan has been going through over the last decades. Then again the EU economy is already in a deep depression so would people even notice? Maybe when they started freezing to death in the winter.

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He is doing gish gallop.

Doesn't make sense to falsify all of his claims, he can generate more, taking magnitude more time from you than the speed of the gallop.