Ukrainian War Developments

Status
Not open for further replies.

Suetham

Senior Member
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Part 1:
Part 2:

In my opinion, the attack on the occupied Crimea will only aim to distract nature in order to stretch the defense. And the naval landings, which are now being actively talked about in sub-zero temperatures, will only lead to personnel losses. , an attack on the gathering of Russian units attacking from the east in the final phase - is possible.

6.jpg
Winter significantly reduces the capabilities of marines

Most likely, the enemy will use those tools and forces that are still beyond the control of intelligence. There is also a notable accumulation of manpower, there is a transfer of personnel from the Far East of the Russian Federation, from the northern regions. It is necessary to monitor units that have recently been trained, deployed and trained in combat.

It should be understood that equipment for these units has been accumulating near our borders for a year now. During this period, the Russian Federation has repeatedly supplied and withdrawn units, but how much equipment remains near Ukraine is a separate issue. In other words, the equipment could have been preserved and is just waiting for the personnel to arrive,” said Vadym Pavlych.

Horde tactics

For Russia, the experience of offensive action has not changed since the 13th century, since the Tatar-Mongol invasion - to take numbers. But it is important to understand - a man on defense just gets tired of "swinging a sword", and when the enemy has a significant numerical advantage of one unit and immediately replaces it with another, bypass the resistance node, that is, do not think that the enemy will resist and defend itself to the end.

They are usually protected from invasion by modern tanks by other methods. The most effective way is to prevent refueling - to eliminate the maneuver component. In order for the tank unit to go on the offensive, it provides a lot of additional equipment with "refills".

7.jpg
Mass refueling of Russian tanks from the ground

In my opinion, the enemy will make jumps of up to 120 km at most, where they will capture bases and deploy support bases on them. Most likely, they will be large railway stations, because the Russian army has worked out the interaction of the railway troops, who are supposed to provide logistics. From these units, automotive equipment will already be transporting fuel and ammunition for a distance of 30 to 40 km, where advanced supply bases will be located.

Attention should also be paid to the management of Russian army tank units, which use automated control systems. Especially for the mass use of "Orlan-10" UAVs. And this is actually another "tracking role" from our experience, because until 2016, Russia had large drones like the "Outpost". But UAV control points and all command and staff vehicles can be easily captured by radio reconnaissance and their exact coordinates.

8.jpg
UAV "Orlan-10" and control point on the chassis "KamAZ"

That is, it will be necessary to hit long-range missile weapons on logistics and command units - "Alder", "Tornado", "Point-U".

It is also necessary to use the full potential of who we are in our own land. These are the actions of special operations forces who have to "hunt down" the rear columns. Use remote mining to force the enemy to go in the direction we need - into the narrow gorge. Use ambushes, a network of erroneous and defensive positions, that is, our commanders must have a series of tactics.

It is a mistake to think that it is enough to create platoon bases. No tanker will dare to go to the GP on the forehead. This requires a great concentration of forces and will still lead to significant losses. Because every GOP has minefields, anti-tank missiles, and an anti-tank reserve. That is, the Russian army will try to go where it is sure there is no resistance. And our commanders must understand exactly where the enemy will try to ignore them.

If that happens, a lot will depend on the counter-fight, which is the most unacceptable for both sides, as the losses are distributed 1:1. But there's time to cement the defense," said Vadym Pavlych.

Not just tanks

But in addition to tanks, which are the main means of advancement in the Russian army, special attention should be paid to the BMP-3. The Kremlin made a separate bet on this car, not only launching its mass production, but also modernizing it, installing a unified "Bakhcha" turret.

This made it possible to significantly expand the combat capabilities of the BMP-3, which is armed with 100 mm and 30 mm cannons thanks to a thermal imager, a panoramic view of the commander and a new fire control system.

9.jpg
BMP-3 of the Russian army

To be blunt, the BMP-3 is already a floating light tank. If the tanks, in accordance with the old Soviet tradition, get away from the infantry or get stuck, the BMP-3 is capable of carrying out a wide range of tasks in addition, the BMP-3 is the only Soviet car that had a level of quite high comfort, which allowed the driver's mechanics to make long marches.

10.jpg
BMD-4 of the Russian army

This is the most threatening time the enemy is constantly working on training. That is, the Kremlin hopes to destroy our air defenses and then capture important units in the rear with the help of airborne units.

If Russia has returned to the experience of the USSR, albeit modernized through new technologies, controls, intelligence and fire contact, it is necessary to look closely at the NATO experience during the Cold War. More precisely, Alliance funds in Western Europe, which were supposed to neutralize the Soviet army during its "jump into the English Channel". And the West has just had a pervasive saturation of anti-tank weapons.

That is, we have to create a powerful system of protection against the armored threat of the Russian army through foreign aid, our own anti-aircraft missiles, kamikaze drones and UAV strikes. We need to move away from the illusion that we have already done all we can in this area. Seek new approaches in the organizational and personnel structure of our teams and units. And the main thing is not to waste time and focus on what we believe we have already conquered and learned”, underlined Vadym Pavlych.

It should be noted that a number of weapons were developed to combat the invasion of Soviet tanks. From TOW anti-aircraft missiles and later Javeline, to Hellfire guided missiles, AH-64 Apache attack helicopter, A-10 attack aircraft, individually guided sub-elements for tactical missiles and much more. Even tanks in Allied countries were once seen primarily as anti-tank weapons. And the same Abrams received a high-explosive projectile only in the 2000s.
 

Suetham

Senior Member
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Part: 1

How many armored vehicles and artillery in the battalion groups of the Russian Federation near the borders of Ukraine

1.jpg
Russian army self-propelled artillery

The grouping of Russian ground forces near Ukraine's borders has changed little since November 2021, when it included 40 battalion tactical groups (BTGs). This group is still very menacing. How many tanks, infantry and artillery fighting vehicles can be in it - in Defense Express stuff

The grouping of Russian ground forces near Ukraine's borders has changed little since November 2021, despite the “mission” to Kazakhstan on January 7, 2022, a small contingent of Russian Armed Forces (less than 2,000 paratroopers and special forces). Especially since they are promised to return on January 20, 2022.

It is possible to estimate approximately how many in 40 BTG are tanks, BMP, artillery units and personnel, based on the known composition of each BTG. A certain difficulty lies in the presence of two types of BTG of different composition (motorized rifle and tank).

2.jpg
Training of motorized infantry units of the Russian army in the Rostov region

The motorized infantry BTG usually has a motorized infantry brigade (40 infantry fighting vehicles, 6 mortars), a tank company (10 tanks), an artillery company (18 howitzers or SGs) and up to 1,000 people.

The BTG tank usually has a tank battalion (31 tanks), a motorized infantry company (12 BMP), an artillery division (18 SG) and up to 600 people. Such a large number of BTG personnel is explained by the presence of anti-tank and anti-aircraft units, combat units and logistics, including intelligence, communications, supplies, etc.

3.jpg
Maneuvers of the Tor-M2 SAM of the Air Defense Forces of the 1st Free Air Defense Tank Army

That is, it is necessary to determine approximately how many 40 tank BTGs and how many motorized rifle BTGs. After all, if the group (theoretically) has 40 tank BTGs, they will have over 1,200 tanks (as with all units in the group), and if there are 40 motor rifle BTGs, then only 400 tanks.

The number in the group of tanks and motorized infantry BTG can be roughly determined based on their sum into groups in operational areas (OP) and geographic conditions, BTG tasks and the composition of the compounds from which they are created.

4.jpg
Maneuvers of motorized infantry units of the Western Military District (ZVO)

It should be borne in mind that the Russian group must carry out an offensive, and to compensate for the losses it will keep in reserve 30-40% of the tanks, even more BMP (40-50%) and artillery (35-45%, including regiments artillery and artillery brigades). It should also be borne in mind that generally the all-military regiment and brigade form a maximum of 2 BTG, with contract staff as well as the best and most useful weapons.

Below is a rough expert assessment of the number of tanks (T) and motorized infantry (MS) BTG in the Russian Federation cluster, divided by OH groups (optional).

5.jpg
Russian army multiple rocket launcher
 

Suetham

Senior Member
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Part: 1
Part 2:

The CIA Map shows the deployment of Russian troops and BTGs near Ukraine, including 40 strike BTGs divided by UN groups:

North, Orel-Voronezh ON: 12 BTG (6 MS + 6 T), including 2 for reinforcement:

In Belarus - 2 BTG from the 2nd MSD (1 MS + 1 T) and in reserve 3 BTG from the Airborne Forces (76th DSD, 98th and 106th VDD).

In Klintsy - 2 BTG from the 144th MSD (2 MS). Together with 2 BTG from the 3rd MSD, they make 4 BTG facing Kiev. In Yelnya - another 5 BTG in reserve.

In the Voronezh region. - 6 + 2 = 8 BTG from the 4th TD (4 T + 2 MS) and from the 3rd MSD (1 MS + 1 T). They aim to surround Kharkiv.

6.jpg
Russian Army Free Economic Zone artillery training

East, Donetsk OH : 15 BTG (9 MS + 6 T):

In the DPR / LPR and Rostov region. - 15 BTG from 1st/2nd AK (6 MS), 8th ZA (150th and 20th MSD (3 MS + 6 T) ). They target Melitopol and make their way to Crimea.

In Temryuk: 1 BTG from the 810th ObrMP (1 MS)

South, Crimean OH: 12 BTG (8 MS + 4 T), incl. 6 for reinforcement:

In Crimea: 4 + 6 + 2 = 12 BTG from the 22nd AK (4 MS), the 58th ZA (2 MS + 4 T) and the 49th ZA (2 MS). They are intended for Tavriysk and Melitopol.

That is, a group of 40 BTG can have 16 T BTG and 24 MS BTG (736 tanks, 1152 BMP, 864 artillery units and 33,600 people). Including:

Orel-Voronezh ON (6 MS BTG and 6 T BTG) can have 246 tanks, 312 BMP, 252 artillery units and 9,600 people.

Donetsk ON (9 MS BTG and 6 T BTG) can have 276 tanks, 432 BMP, 324 artillery units and 12,600 people.

Crimean ON (8 MS BTG and 4 T BTG) can have 204 tanks, 368 BMP, 264 artillery units and 10,400 people.

A group of 53 BTG can have 19 T BTG and 34 MS BTG (929 tanks, 1588 BMP, 1158 artillery units and 45,400 people).

The number of personnel and the number of weapons in the Russian ground force groups near the borders of Ukraine and in their BTG are given in the table that will be available on the link.

CONCLUSIONS. In the event of a Russian attack on Ukraine, according to the above scenario, a group of 94,000 Russian soldiers, 1,200 tanks, 2,900 infantry fighting vehicles and 1,600 units of Russian artillery troops with 40 BTG (16 tanks and 24 motors) may have 736 tanks, 1152 BMP, 864 artillery units and 33,600 people.

In case of increasing the grouping to 105 thousand people, 1300 tanks, 3400 BMP and 1800 artillery units, and the number of BTG up to 53 (19 tank and 34 motorized rifle) these BTG can have 929 tanks, 1588 BMP, 1158 units of artillery and 45,400 people.

That is, in the first case (when 40 BTG) the troops of Ukraine will have to repel the attack of 736 tanks, 1152 BMP and fight with 864 artillery units, while in the second case (when 53 BTG) - to repel the attack of 929 tanks, 1588 BMP and fighting with 1158 artillery units.

Of course, the declared amounts of Russian weapons are approximate and partially based on expert estimates, but they do show the threat level. In August 2021, Shoigu announced the formation of 168 BTG in the RF Armed Forces, but 3-4 times less were concentrated near Ukraine.

8.jpg
Training of motorized infantry units of the Western Military District of the Russian Army

After all, the leadership of the Russian Armed Forces relies not only on the number of its BTG, but also on the quantitative and qualitative advantage of its VKS and OTRK, the advantage of modernized tanks, BMP, artillery, reconnaissance, "genius of commanders", propaganda and intimidation. Ukraine's Armed Forces don't just need anti-tank weapons. This must be taken into account.
 

Mr T

Senior Member
With the way that the west is treating Russia for decades, I don’t think for a second that the Russian are magically going to want wanting better relations with a hostile power that wants to hold Russia hostage with nukes. In fact I can see Russia pivoting away from the west and investing even more with Asia
You make it sound like Russia is awash with money, when it's still quite fragile and has real problems with poverty and a lack of social services. They should be investing at home, not abroad.

Russia's economy is quite reliant on energy sales. As not just the EU and North America but also China, South Korea and Japan will have to wean themselves off oil and gas to avoid catastrophic climate change, Russia is going to be in real trouble in the coming decades.

Putin has no credible plans to change Russia's economic balance. Rather he seems to be doubling down, banking on global efforts to deal with climate change failing and Russia somehow prevailing amidst the charred remains of burnt counties ravaged by civil war, mass population displacement and natural disasters.

Or perhaps he plans on being dead by then so he doesn't have to deal with the problems caused by a severe drop in demand for Russian energy.

So the moral of the story is, unless the west understands and respect Russia’s red lines, expecting some kind of warming of relations is a fantasy that can never happen.
Europe has given Russia a lot of leeway in the past. Germany kept pushing ahead with pipelines to Russia. NATO stood back and didn't try to use military force to stop Russia annexing the Crimea or invading Georgia. It's Russia that's been the aggressive side in the last few decades, and it's had a lot of chances to change its behaviour. Talking about Russia's "red lines" is like describing the school bully who has a list of how much lunch money other students are expected to hand over.
Besides, when the USA collapses economically
When, in 2200? :rolleyes: I've seen predications about the American economy "collapsing" ever since I joined the forum. It's not happening anytime soon. In fact as I mentioned above, it's more likely the Russian economy goes down the crapper first.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Europe has given Russia a lot of leeway in the past. Germany kept pushing ahead with pipelines to Russia.
You act like they gave Russia a favour or something. Don't forget that Russian gas is supposed to fuel Germany's green transition (especially at industry)


Russia's economy is quite reliant on energy sales. As not just the EU and North America but also China, South Korea and Japan will have to wean themselves off oil and gas to avoid catastrophic climate change, Russia is going to be in real trouble in the coming decades.
This is true. Russia IMO has 2 decades of more gas sales.
During this period Russia needs to develop internally and to grow other industries/exports to prepare for a future where gas won't be as important as now.

Saudi Arabia and UAE are already working on this
 

W20

Junior Member
Registered Member
"It's Russia that's been the aggressive side"

(!?)

The State Department knew perfectly well that Ukraine was divided into two sides, and precisely because of that it provoked a civil war, which has caused thousands of fatalities and hundreds of thousands of displaced persons. And currently the supposedly American State Department is headed by two grandsons of Ukrainians: Antony Blinken and Victoria "fxxx EU" Nuland

The world of fantasies in which the minds of the Angloempire 2.0 live is unbelievable.

On the other hand Crimea is Russia before Miami, Texas, Nevada, California ... were USA

And now you will tell me that the State Department is defending a decision of internal administrative organization within the Soviet Union in the 1950s.
 

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
You act like they gave Russia a favour or something. Don't forget that Russian gas is supposed to fuel Germany's green transition (especially at industry)

This is true. Russia IMO has 2 decades of more gas sales.
During this period Russia needs to develop internally and to grow other industries/exports to prepare for a future where gas won't be as important as now.

Saudi Arabia and UAE are already working on this

Russia has gas reserves at Yamal that would last almost almost a century at given rates of depletion.
You say 2 decades of gas sales. Europe will replace this gas with what exactly? There is no plan to replace it nor is there alternative technology like large batteries available for it at cost effective price. The fact is they are still building gas pipelines and not just to Russia.

Russia's investment into agriculture and drive towards nationalization of the civilian transport industry etc are already movements in the direction of further Russian self reliance.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top