Ukrainian War Developments

Matheus S said:

CSIS think tank analyzes possible Russian invasion routes into Ukraine:

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As they never get anything right about Russian/Chinese strategic planning, it makes for a good read on what Russia won't do if it were to hypothetically invade Ukraine.

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Whats happened is Putin ordered the military an all level to plan and rehersal for an Ukrainan invasion, considering all territoral speciality of that country.

This is the reason why everyone think that they will attack ukraine.

It is a big joke, the USA WANTS BADLY from Russia to attack Ukraine. They takes everything on face value that strengthen they believ.

Matheus S said:

CSIS think tank analyzes possible Russian invasion routes into Ukraine:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

As they never get anything right about Russian/Chinese strategic planning, it makes for a good read on what Russia won't do if it were to hypothetically invade Ukraine.

Click to expand...

Just out of curiosity, CSIS gave a notable example of the mobilization of Russian forces from east to west, citing huge amounts of equipment being transferred by train.

Analysts at the think tank are likely unaware that Russia has planned massive military exercises with Belarus in February/March 2022, so a part of the displacement of that total equipment will be going to Belarus to carry out the joint exercises.

Some sources cite 4-5 Iskanders being transferred from two brigades from the east to the west, it is worth noting that Lukashenko asked Russia for Iskander divisions to equip their forces and probably these Iskanders were last year near the Ukrainian border performing exercises in April , after the exercises they returned to their proper districts.

Analysts of the American thin tank are also unaware that the Russian Ministry of Defense has given an order to the Eastern Military District to test the readiness of the armed forces, testing the army's ability to carry out large deployments and act quickly to other districts, which also will serve to anticipate the planning of the Vostok-22 exercise that will be carried out in September and will be the biggest exercise of the year and the most awaited.


Not to mention that much of the equipment is outdated like the Shilka vehicles from the 60's, I've seen images of large shipments of this vehicle being transported.

Furthermore, a large part of the military involved in the Ukrainian border are conscripts, if you were to carry out a full-scale invasion, the number of professional soldiers would have to be huge.

I also note that they like to mention the number of 100,000 troops accumulated on the Russian-Ukrainian border. In general, I agree with this number, but with one important caveat - most of these 100,000 people are employees of military units that were originally located there, close to the border of Russia and Ukraine. Since 2014, Russia has started to create or strengthen military units near the border of Russia and Ukraine, to fill them with soldiers, and these 100,000 mostly were originally there, no one transferred them at once at the end of 2021, not to mention that this number was not even the largest deployment near the Ukrainian border last year, numbers that were below the period of the exercises that take place in April of last year. I heard news that even train wagons for transporting agricultural vehicles were missing because of Russian military demand.

Also a large part of this displacement will already be in order to prepare for the exercises that will take place in April, usually the April training period is when much of the military buildup takes place, so after the Belarus exercises some of the equipment will still not be demobilized as soon as the joint exercises are completed.

Russia won't invade Ukraine, no matter what you may read in the western sphere.

There is no strategic benefit to Russia invading or occupying Ukraine. Zero. It has already taken Crimea, the region with the most military and the two most pro-Russian regions are de facto under their influence.

Russia knew what it wanted back in 2014. They invaded and occupied Crimea, the only region of strategic value. If they wanted more of Ukraine they would have taken it then, not 7 years later when the region is peaceful.

There are other regions which may prefer Russia such as Kharkiv but there is little benefit for Russia occupying these territories. The further west you go the stronger the Russophobia becomes.

While Russophobia is present, it is hardly Nazi Germany level that requires a humanitarian intervention. In cities like Odessa Russian will always be the de facto language, whatever Kiev thinks. How does Russia benefit from occupying them? Russians seem to be content to let the EU pay for them.

So no, I don't buy this latest version of warmongering. The only positive thing to say about it is that it is a distraction from the continuous China hate speech that comes from the same sources.

Meanwhile, I say Russia will attack in February, most likely when Beijing Olympics starts if Russian demands aren't achieved.

They will start the deployment of weapons to Venezuela/Cuba in a weeks time.

They don't care about Ukraine at the moment. They will penalize USA.

ILikeChina said:

Meanwhile, I say Russia will attack in February, most likely when Beijing Olympics starts if Russian demands aren't achieved.

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I highly doubt that. I would only consider it a Russian advance if the Ukrainian army tries to retake Donbass. The West is creating a smokescreen with these false flag statements that the Russians are deploying in defense of an intervention in Ukraine, but this is a ploy by the West because they support Ukraine in trying to retake Donbass and they know that the Russians would react, Ukraine has not yet tried this action because it is not sure that NATO will protect them and they know that they are just a pawn in this geopolitical game.

Anlsvrthng said:

They will start the deployment of weapons to Venezuela/Cuba in a weeks time.

They don't care about Ukraine at the moment. They will penalize USA.

Click to expand...

Well, that I don't know. But Russia has clearly already lost patience and that is a red line drawn by the Russians who will not tolerate further advances from the West to Eastern Europe.

Some videos on twitter about the Russian mobilization.

Part 1:

Matheus S said:

Some videos on twitter about the Russian mobilization.

Part 1:

Click to expand...

Part 2:

Part 1:

How to stop the tank invasion of the Russian Federation: the main directions of strikes and opposition to horde tactics


Russia relies on armored units - as the main strike force

The Russian Federation continues to concentrate significant forces on its borders with Ukraine, whose main core is armored units. It is in the invasion of tanks that the Russian army is placing its main bet on a possible full-scale offensive.

Defense Express spoke with Vadim Pavlych, an oil tanker and practitioner, about countering this threat, tactics and weaknesses.

From brigades to divisions and armies

The fighting in Donbass showed the Russian Federation that its transition to a brigade structure was wrong. In 2014 it was a novelty, but then our artillery nullified its BTG. And in 2016 they just didn't have enough strength, because we "bite" them - they stood in our defense.

So they decided to return to the Soviet system by abandoning brigades and returning to regiments, divisions and armies. The fact is that it is impossible to simply copy the mechanisms that were designed in the USSR for divisions and "extend" them to the system of Western brigades.

And now they are using everything that was developed during the Soviet era - the mass use and the old organizational and personnel structure, including maintenance by repair battalions.


In Russia, they returned to the Soviet team and organizational structure

It also allowed us to use decades-old calculations on the cost of fuel and lubricants, shells, daily gears. They went back to these formulas. As a result, if we take our best performing tank brigade, it will just be your tank regiment," said Vadym Pavlych.

To understand: the tank regiment (in the classic version) is three tank battalions - 94 tanks, and the tank division (classic version) has two tank regiments, and the tanks are in the motorized rifle regiment.


The Tank Regiment is a strike group with a significant material and technical base

It should be noted that such "classical execution" in practice is implemented with "local characteristics" and the actual organizational and personnel structure of regiments and divisions, the number of combat vehicles, their types and even personnel in the Russian army - different in different units.

But a division actually has a triple advantage over the brigade in manpower and equipment, which according to Soviet-era statutes is the minimum condition for the offensive. And the "painting" of Russian forces around Ukraine in the form of regular groups, in contrast to tactical battalion groups, much better reflects the actual level of threat.

In addition, as Vadym Pavlych noted, in Syria the Russian army discovered what it could not do in Donbass - working in combat conditions the interaction between aviation and ground units. Both during direct fire support and in the task of targeting long-range missiles.

Likely directions of blows

Since 2014, the Kremlin has been systematically increasing its military presence and infrastructure on the northern border with Ukraine, and the de facto transformation of Belarus into a "federal district of Russia" has expanded the possible base for a possible attack more than 1,000 km from the Belarusian border. -Ukrainian.

As of today, there are four armies stationed around Ukraine, and another one is moving to Belarus, as well as three army corps.


Concentration of Russian troops around Ukraine

In particular, the is stationed in the direction of the Chernihiv-Sumy line, the 20th All-Military Army is stationed in the direction of Slobozhanshchyna, and 41 units of the All-Military Army are stationed on the southern border of Belarus.

Also in the occupied part of Donbass there are the 1st and 2nd army corps of the so-called "LDNR", which are integrated into the general command system of the armed forces of the Russian Federation. Behind them unfolded the 8th All-Army, and in the Kuban - the 49th All-Army.


Russia keeps its troops in Transnistria under the guise of peacekeepers

The 49th can operate both towards Donbass and through occupied Crimea, where significant forces are also concentrated, the core of which is the 22nd Army Corps and the Russian Black Sea Fleet. We must not forget about the unrecognized Transnistria, where a separate group of the Russian army is located.