Ukrainian Conflict Developments


emblem21

Senior Member
Registered Member
Russia lost a major defense contract when the west deposed Qaddafi!
Which only serves to make things that much harder for Russia or Putin to capitulate to the USA like the USA desperately wants them to. It’s almost like murdering people in foreign nations with out a genuine reason other then preventing Libya from using their own currency to sell oil is meant to have consequences that is going to stick forever until the murderer responsible own up and pay for their sins. This year is starting out poorly for the USA, it’s going to get worse, if my theory is correct and that the USA is publicly implication on the creation of the coronavirus sometime in the future, then really, this could become a true game changer as the west had so long to prove China responsible for its creation yet no proof exists but slowly but surely, the truth of the creation and originator of this virus is coming out and after that, justice will finally be made manifest. Of course this is speculation, but these coincidences are starting to pile up and the denials from the USA is getting less and less common

 

weig2000

Senior Member
It is highly recommended to listen to this interview with/presentation by the Russian Professor Dmitry Suslov, who appears to have some insider knowledge of the thinking of Russia strategic community. He articulated a coherent framework and a set of principles of Russia strategic thinking.


A couple of notes:

The interview was conducted in November 13, 2021 before the flurries of high-level diplomatic meetings between Russia and the US, and the most recent Russia "ultimatum." The latter appears to be a bit of contradictory to Russia's "strategic patience" dealing with the US/NATO that Suslov. But I would argue that the framework laid out by Suslov is still valid from Russia perspective, it's just that the fast strategic developments on the ground have caught up with some of the principles. Heck, before the meeting last March at Anchorage, China was still proactively pursuing a policy of largely accommodating the US.

During the Q&A at the end of the video, the host asked Suslov some questions about the asymmetric power between Russia and China. One of them is what Russia would do in the case of a China-US conflict on Taiwan. Suslov previously laid out that Russia prefers a low-intensity conflict between China and the US, which gives Russia larger freedom of action, but Russia does not like high-intensity conflict between the two because it would force to Russia to choose side. To answer the Taiwan question, Suslov said that in the current environment, Russia would have to take the side of China. I suppose this is the same logic that if the US/West severely sanction Russia, China should support Russia, as much as China would not like to get into such a situation in the first place.

The video is a bit long, but worth watching.
 

Suetham

Junior Member
Registered Member
The latter appears to be a bit of contradictory to Russia's "strategic patience" dealing with the US/NATO that Suslov.
NATO wants Ukraine's accession, this action is something that can be interpreted as if it is a declaration of independence of Taiwan from China for the Chinese, it definitely becomes the red line that cannot be tolerant if it is being violated, the Russians will not they can't be in a situation applying the concept of "strategic patience" if NATO weapons are starting to knock on Russia's border doors via Ukraine.
 

Anlsvrthng

Senior Member
Registered Member
Interesting ,the events of past few weeks sound for me like Russia wants to force the USA and the European countries to say again and again " every country free to decide which allience it wants to join, and which foreign military units and equipment its keeps on its territory" .
 

Anlsvrthng

Senior Member
Registered Member
: D

Russia won’t rule out sending troops to Cuba, Venezuela as Ukraine tensions grow​

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: D

So, it is not about Ukraine, that is a decoy, it is about the right of every country to decide which allience it wants to join, and what country military units and weapons its wants to keep on its territory.

And as we know the USA respect every country right to station example Russian medium range ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads on its territory.


I love it, Putin is a master , and the USA deep state is idiotic.
 

yungho

New Member
Registered Member
It is highly recommended to listen to this interview with/presentation by the Russian Professor Dmitry Suslov, who appears to have some insider knowledge of the thinking of Russia strategic community. He articulated a coherent framework and a set of principles of Russia strategic thinking.


A couple of notes:

The interview was conducted in November 13, 2021 before the flurries of high-level diplomatic meetings between Russia and the US, and the most recent Russia "ultimatum." The latter appears to be a bit of contradictory to Russia's "strategic patience" dealing with the US/NATO that Suslov. But I would argue that the framework laid out by Suslov is still valid from Russia perspective, it's just that the fast strategic developments on the ground have caught up with some of the principles. Heck, before the meeting last March at Anchorage, China was still proactively pursuing a policy of largely accommodating the US.

During the Q&A at the end of the video, the host asked Suslov some questions about the asymmetric power between Russia and China. One of them is what Russia would do in the case of a China-US conflict on Taiwan. Suslov previously laid out that Russia prefers a low-intensity conflict between China and the US, which gives Russia larger freedom of action, but Russia does not like high-intensity conflict between the two because it would force to Russia to choose side. To answer the Taiwan question, Suslov said that in the current environment, Russia would have to take the side of China. I suppose this is the same logic that if the US/West severely sanction Russia, China should support Russia, as much as China would not like to get into such a situation in the first place.

The video is a bit long, but worth watching.
Amazing talk. I loved the bit about using military to correct history. Frankly, the trends outlined do not bold well for China. China seems like a sucker here for taking on the brunt of US attention and allowing Russia, and others, to conduct relations.

I'm also curious in any shifts in strategy when Putin steps down from power, even though the speaker made it seem Russian foreign policy was pretty much set in stone. I think a pivot towards the US and EU will occur when Putin steps down, with Putin being propped up as the wedge between warmer Russian and western relations, even though Russian foreign policy and planned for this to happen all along.
 

emblem21

Senior Member
Registered Member
Amazing talk. I loved the bit about using military to correct history. Frankly, the trends outlined do not bold well for China. China seems like a sucker here for taking on the brunt of US attention and allowing Russia, and others, to conduct relations.

I'm also curious in any shifts in strategy when Putin steps down from power, even though the speaker made it seem Russian foreign policy was pretty much set in stone. I think a pivot towards the US and EU will occur when Putin steps down, with Putin being propped up as the wedge between warmer Russian and western relations, even though Russian foreign policy and planned for this to happen all along.
With the way that the west is treating Russia for decades, I don’t think for a second that the Russian are magically going to want wanting better relations with a hostile power that wants to hold Russia hostage with nukes. In fact I can see Russia pivoting away from the west and investing even more with Asia even if Putin leaves because all other successors after him are even more hardline then him given that last time a leader wants better relations with the west, they lost the Soviet Union. So the moral of the story is, unless the west understands and respect Russia’s red lines, expecting some kind of warming of relations is a fantasy that can never happen. Besides, when the USA collapses economically and cannot offer Russia anything of value, what’s makes anyone think that Russia would want to warm relations, at that time, killing the relation so as to not send valuable resources to a worthless nation would be better because of wasting resources is simply a no go and really, no one in the world then would want better relations with the USA then
 

Suetham

Junior Member
Registered Member
CSIS think tank analyzes possible Russian invasion routes into Ukraine:
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As they never get anything right about Russian/Chinese strategic planning, it makes for a good read on what Russia won't do if it were to hypothetically invade Ukraine.
 

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