Ukrainian Conflict Developments


james smith esq

Junior Member
Registered Member
I have re-read what you said there but if that was to occur there will be some serious nuclear profileration in the whole region because nobody wants to accept nuclear Iran it would be direct threat to themselves hence Turkey, KSA, Egypt, UAE, Morocco and Algeria will go nuclear immediately and could be an over-night occurance via nuclear sharing with Pakistan and then begin to build there after to create parity in a split second

And I apologize because I just reread what you asked.

Yes it would result in a destabilization on many levels; however, if Russia is not able to achieve the degree of stability it’s seeks in Europe, then why wouldn’t it act to potentially destabilize other important theaters of action? Or rather, why would it not act to potentially destabilize other important theaters of action?
 

Arnies

Junior Member
Registered Member
And I apologize because I just reread what you asked.

Yes it would result in a destabilization on many levels; however, if Russia is not able to achieve the degree of stability it’s seeks in Europe, then why wouldn’t it act to potentially destabilize other important theaters of action? Or rather, why would it not act to potentially destabilize other important theaters of action?

I don't think they want any of that besides Russia doesn't want to chose camps as Iran is sort of isolated and going with them would definitely put them in the isolated camp swithing over to the US everyone instead of an isolated Iran a gamble to big to take on a single country and handing over to the US 30+ countries to join them freely
 

james smith esq

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't think they want any of that besides Russia doesn't want to chose camps as Iran is sort of isolated and going with them would definitely put them in the isolated camp swithing over to the US everyone instead of an isolated Iran a gamble to big to take on a single country and handing over to the US 30+ countries to join them freely
I think that every country that matters has already aligned against them. At this point, Russia may have to play a wild-card. However, I don’t believe that Putin has either the nerve, or intelligence, to do anything strategically creative or daring. What he really wants is for Europe and the US to take him seriously, which I don’t think they really do. If he really wants that, he’ll have to do something that potentially disturbs the status quo.

Additionally many of those countries that you mentioned gaining nuclear capabilities would be very problematic for both the US and Israel.

Putin should have shifted Russia’s energy export emphasis to the east, looooong ago! However, his heart of hearts is oriented westward.
 
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gelgoog

Major
Registered Member
Russia has worked on eastern energy exports for quite some time. Even back in Yeltsin's time they worked on the Sakhalin LNG project to export natural gas to Japan and later South Korea. Russia back then lacked the capital to invest in the project and it was funded with Japanese capital. The Yamal LNG exploration zone also has huge LNG port facilities to export LNG to Asia and it was funded partly with Asian money. Chinese capital. European, Japanese, and South Korean contractors. Asian clients. The thing is building pipelines costs a huge amount of money and the destination country needs to have the infrastructure internally to use the gas. Back when Sakhalin was done China was not a major natural gas import nation. This only changed like a decade or two ago tops. Then most importers of natural gas were in the south of the country like in Shanghai and the sea freight of LNG made more financial sense. Only now with the Chinese government policy to phase out coal to improve air quality in Northern China does this infrastructure make sense.
 
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emblem21

Senior Member
Registered Member
I think that every country that matters has already aligned against them. At this point, Russia may have to play a wild-card. However, I don’t believe that Putin has either the nerve, or intelligence, to do anything strategically creative or daring. What he really wants is for Europe and the US to take him seriously, which I don’t think they really do. If he really wants that, he’ll have to do something that potentially disturbs the status quo.

Additionally many of those countries that you mentioned gaining nuclear capabilities would be very problematic for both the US and Israel.

Putin should have shifted Russia’s energy export emphasis to the east, looooong ago! However, his heart of hearts is oriented westward.
Hmmmmm, at this point in time anything is possible but I wouldn’t under estimate Putin though because he is able to raise Russia from the heap it was in thanks to the actions of Gobachov and his successor and as such is likely to pull an upset regardless of the situation. I believe that Putin in this situation is better equipped to last throughout this storm compared to Biden and whatever successor that comes after because all of those people are still gripped by hatred and a desire to trampled other under foot to see the real big picture that unless the USA can gets its priorities right and fast, the USA cannot recover at all. That being said if you are to compare China and Russia, China may end up the one who stands firm more due to having a strong foundation and a leader that despite the world hammering him with criticism, nothing will slow down his resolve and as shown, under his leadership, China has gone through, the alpha, beta, delta and now omicron and none of those have slowed them down whereas for Russia, while I respect Putin as a leader, this is a department where he could’ve done a lot better in.
But still at least Russia hasn’t been reduced to the level of chaos that is the USA and Europe because heck, those places have regular riots with no end in sight. I believe that Russia has already prepared for worse given that Putin has already hedged his markets to Asia and Africa in regards to resources given how Europe seems hellbent on refusing Russia gas due to USA intervention, which is going to cost Europe lives, not Russian lives. Also to note is that the longer the USA focussed on Russia and other perceived enemies, the less time (if he did spend any time) on the nations domestic infrastructure what quite frankly becomes a game of attrition, one that the USA in comparison to Russia pales in comparison though for a definitive conclusion, more time is required.
One thing is for certain, the USA is no longer against weak nations like Afghanistan and Iraq but he is now against Iran, Russia and China at the same time with lower resources due to spending most of them attacking those weaker nations. If the USA seeks victory against all of them at the same time, this I believe is impossible given that their Allies individual are far weaker and ultimately expect the USA to do the fighting for them (otherwise why haven’t any of them thrown the first punch). The USA is on borrowed time and none of the leadership is clever nor wise enough to see the nation through the crisis.
 

james smith esq

Junior Member
Registered Member
Hmmmmm, at this point in time anything is possible but I wouldn’t under estimate Putin though because he is able to raise Russia from the heap it was in thanks to the actions of Gobachov and his successor and as such is likely to pull an upset regardless of the situation. I believe that Putin in this situation is better equipped to last throughout this storm compared to Biden and whatever successor that comes after because all of those people are still gripped by hatred and a desire to trampled other under foot to see the real big picture that unless the USA can gets its priorities right and fast, the USA cannot recover at all. That being said if you are to compare China and Russia, China may end up the one who stands firm more due to having a strong foundation and a leader that despite the world hammering him with criticism, nothing will slow down his resolve and as shown, under his leadership, China has gone through, the alpha, beta, delta and now omicron and none of those have slowed them down whereas for Russia, while I respect Putin as a leader, this is a department where he could’ve done a lot better in.
But still at least Russia hasn’t been reduced to the level of chaos that is the USA and Europe because heck, those places have regular riots with no end in sight. I believe that Russia has already prepared for worse given that Putin has already hedged his markets to Asia and Africa in regards to resources given how Europe seems hellbent on refusing Russia gas due to USA intervention, which is going to cost Europe lives, not Russian lives. Also to note is that the longer the USA focussed on Russia and other perceived enemies, the less time (if he did spend any time) on the nations domestic infrastructure what quite frankly becomes a game of attrition, one that the USA in comparison to Russia pales in comparison though for a definitive conclusion, more time is required.
One thing is for certain, the USA is no longer against weak nations like Afghanistan and Iraq but he is now against Iran, Russia and China at the same time with lower resources due to spending most of them attacking those weaker nations. If the USA seeks victory against all of them at the same time, this I believe is impossible given that their Allies individual are far weaker and ultimately expect the USA to do the fighting for them (otherwise why haven’t any of them thrown the first punch). The USA is on borrowed time and none of the leadership is clever nor wise enough to see the nation through the crisis.
Well, if both of us are even half-way correct, the world is in for one big miscalculated mess!
 

emblem21

Senior Member
Registered Member
Well, if both of us are even half-way correct, the world is in for one big miscalculated mess!
Sadly enough, that is a yes but on the bright side, it is one where the USA isn’t going to magically sail through like they did with all the previous crisis’s given that this is the one time where the cards are not really in their favor nor are the other players as unprepared as last time and do have the will to work together to well ensure that this player cannot cheat without some really painful consequences and also to note is that most of these other players actually have time to spare while the USA is starting to run out of break times
 

Mr T

Senior Member
What he really wants is for Europe and the US to take him seriously, which I don’t think they really do. If he really wants that, he’ll have to do something that potentially disturbs the status quo.
I think NATO takes Putin seriously, but they don't really have much of a choice. They can't let him blackmail them into demilitarising Eastern Europe when he's not offering anything (meaningful) in return. It's a bit like China's list of demands to Australia a few years ago, one of which was to somehow stop Australian politicians saying mean things about the CCP (constitutionally impossible).

So either Putin has a very naive view about NATO's resolve, thinking that they'll give him whatever he wants if he barks loud enough, or he knows full well he won't get it and is going to use it as a reason to invade Ukraine. If the former, perhaps he'll be content with a piece of paper to say NATO does not currently intend to offer Ukraine membership and an agreement limiting the deployment of intermediate range ballistic missiles in Eastern Europe/Western Russia. If the latter, there's nothing that can be done other than to hope it doesn't escalate into World War III.
 

Anlsvrthng

Senior Member
Registered Member
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I just curious, whats happens if the Russians simply stop to use the Ukrainan transit network, regardless of the Nord sTream 2 ?


In that case Europe will be short of natural gas, Ukraine short of money, and Russia could recover the loss due to the low volume from the high prices, until the Chinese pipeline operational to transfer the NS2 volume to China from the fields that used to supply the EU. And stop to put any more money into the European export infrastructure, making everything compliant with the Europea rules. If no pipe, no issue .
 

gelgoog

Major
Registered Member
The gas transit deal with Ukraine has like 3 years left on it? Given TurkStream is already operational and the gas goes all the way to Hungary the need for southern gas transit has decreased massively. The Russians are in no great hurry. The deal with Ukraine is for the transit of 40bcm of gas annually. NordStream 2 can carry 55bcm. In the first year deal with Ukraine was for 65bcm but when TurkStream went operational the Ukraine gas transit, as you can see, went down substantially by roughly the same amount as one of the pipes in TurkStream. Exactly the same amount of TurkStream allocated for European gas transit.
 

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