Unlike your article in the Diplomat, their claims are extensively documented with sources and allow a modicum of traceability. For example, you wrote; "The Type 055’s beam and draft is likely sufficient for all 112 VLS to accommodate the largest 9 meter variant." Where did you get that? The aft VLS modules are sitting over the shafts, mind you.
055 DDG Large Destroyer Thread
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That was from rumours around the time when it was written in mid 2018.
As I wrote in post #7621, there are parts of that piece which are very much out of date.
If I were to rewrite that piece, obviously I would include all of the additional information that has come to light in the intervening one and a half years since then.
Let's remember here that we are comparing their 055 paper published in early 2020 vs the body of knowledge that the PLA watching community has, as of early 2020.
As for documenting sources -- yes, they certainly are well cited, which is the bare necessity for any kind of academic paper. Unfortunately the quality of their citations and their interpretations of their citations leaves much to be desired.
At present, the only confirmed missiles that can be launched from the UVLS on 052D and 055 are YJ-18 (AShM variant) and HHQ-9.
Other missiles which have credible rumours that have been launched form the UVLS but which have yet to be positively identified include a LACM variant of YJ-18, which at present is believed to be the primary LACM for the UVLS.
Other categories of missiles that can be expected to be integrated into the UVLS but which we have not heard explicit and consistent rumours of, would include:
- a quad packable MR SAM (which we know is in development and has been described as the 3-5 missile)
- a VL ASROC type weapon (possibly it may be Yu-8 the same as used on 054A, or it may be a different missile entirely)
- in the longer term, potentially an ABM weapon as well
However, based on the above we currently have no evidence or rumours to suggest:
- HHQ-16 has been integrated with the UVLS
- CJ-10 has been integrated with the UVLS
- YJ-83 has been integrated with the UVLS
This would be my current assessment of the weapons integration for the UVLS at this stage.
The implication is that in terms of US policy or intelligence analysis, it's going to take them years to build a decent level of competance.
But China has cultivated a corps of Hebrew speaking diplomats, journalists, analysts etc
And the level of expertise looks appropriate, given how Israel doesn't particularly matter to China.
And we can also see that China has a far greater understanding of the USA than vice versa.
In comparison, the US has no excuse for not developing the same level of understanding, given how China has/will surpass the US in most areas.
Even today, China has an economy that is 30% larger in terms of actual output.
So in the future, China will have a reasonable expectation that it is the US which should devote much more effort to understanding China.
And that such a course of action will be to the advantage of the US, because today, they are making so many stupid mistakes because they don't understand what is happening.
I'd like to add I'm not suggesting all foreign academic study of the PLA are of poor quality.
In fact some of the best open source English languge investigations and reports on the PLA's organizational changes and structure are from US sources.
However in terms of keeping up to date with new weapons systems, most foreign analyses and academic investigations are unfortunately rather out of date.
In fact some of the best open source English languge investigations and reports on the PLA's organizational changes and structure are from US sources.
However in terms of keeping up to date with new weapons systems, most foreign analyses and academic investigations are unfortunately rather out of date.
Brumby
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Is confirmation based on official PLA statements or just pictures of launches? Confirmation of launches itself does not necessarily equate to being in service. For example, the first in flight carry of the Meteor missile on board the Rafale was on 9/9/2005. The in service date of the Meteor on board the Rafale is this year. There is a gap of 15 years between first picture and in service date. Weapons integration is typically a long drawn out affair. My point is there is a wide degree of interpretation especially with the opaqueness of PLA activities.
So what did the paper actually said which I will reproduce below.
Emphasis here is “top priority”
Emphasis here is “could be”
Emphasis here is “will be”
Emphasis here is “would”.
Essentially those statements are describing probable future state of inclusion rather than your preferred approach based on differentiation between credible and non-credible rumors. Just because they take a different approach in describing the situation does not make their analysis less credible. or effective. Rumors after all are rumors until proven otherwise.
Think of it this way.
Here is fanboy with his PC at home. He is very good with his CG graphics tools, probably a college student majoring in IT, maybe even in games development, if not in engineering. He uses it to create his 'dream' depictions of cutaways of the 055, 055 VLS with various missiles, creates fantasy idea of what future LHD, future Chinese carrier, future Chinese frigate, future 055 etc,. He posts these in Weibo and other Chinese social media. Hau, hau. His followers applaud his work, and spreads it around. Maybe a Chinese military enthusiast magazine --- yes there such publications because there are plenty of fanbois and geeks in China --- takes them and publishes them. Others take the pictures and posts them in Western social media.
US 'analysts' picks up these illustrations in social media. Oh my god they plan to conquer the world with these. In his mind, China is a monolithic Borg entity, and anything produced by a drone must be the official expression or propaganda of the Chinese government. He takes these illustrations and puts it on his research paper and gives to US politicians, higher ups in the US military and so on, who also don't seem to know any better.
So you can see a lot of things can go very wrong because of this.
It likely won't change the position and conclusion of the paper. That part is way too obvious, its coming to you as big as an iceberg and doesn't take much thought. But for the sake of the authorship, it does stain the quality of the work, the academic credibility of the writers on top of citing less than credible sources in their work.
Read what I wrote in my last post -- "At present, the only confirmed missiles that can be launched from the UVLS on 052D and 055 are YJ-18 (AShM variant) and HHQ-9."
Nice try, but no.
For example, their description for image six states "This graphic illustrates seven different missile types compatible with the vertical launch system (VLS) aboard the Type 055. These include two types of antiship cruise missiles, three types of anti-air missiles, an anti-submarine rocket-torpedo system, as well as a land-attack cruise missile"
-- and that is a non-official CGI depicting YJ-18, HQ-16, HQ-9, DK-10, YU-8, CJ-10, and YJ-83.
Even the part that you quoted is incorrect; for example this part -- "For the Type 055, the air and missile defense mission is described as “top priority” (重中之重). 64 SAMs for air defense include the HHQ-9B long-range surface to air missile and the HQ-16B midrange air defense missile." -- describes air and missile defense as the top priority mission for 055 which is completely sensible, but then it describes HQ-16 as being one of the SAMs for this role, which is inconsistent with what we know about the UVLS.
The idea of 055 being equipped with CJ-10 is also illogical because that would go against what we know about the LACM YJ-18 variant for the UVLS which would fulfill essentially the same role.
Not to mention your "future qualifiers" doesn't work here, because 052D and 055 uses the same UVLS and any weapon that is physically compatible with one will be physically compatible with the other of an equal length (that's the whole point of having a universal VLS), and we have no evidence that any missiles other than HHQ-9 and YJ-18 have been launched from 052D's UVLS either.
Even the use of "future qualifiers" for 055 doesn't absolve the authors of their mistakes, because given the lead 055 was only commissioned last month, it goes without saying that integration of various weapons will take time to happen in the future. However, they are clearly writing it in a way where they expect those weapons to be part of 055's future weapons package.
All of this says to me that these authors took a look at some modern ships articles and some non-official CGIs and took their interpretations at face value rather than doing a bit more critical thinking.
Let's dispense with this charade and just accept that the authors didn't look too closely at some of what they've written and they put too much value on some sources and diagrams. Everyone here knows that foreign analyses of new PLA weapons are usually of dubious quality.
The foreign analyses and papers that do a legitimately good job on leading edge PLA matters are organizational structure and changes, and they are usually the first to provide hints of new PLA ballistic missiles being developed or tested, usually by virtue of being able to receive word of mouth relays from contacts within the US military establishment.
(Some defense journalists who visit trade shows or who have contacts with foreign military forces that use Chinese military equipment are also worth their salt as well)
But for matters of analysing domestic PLA ships and aircraft, foreign analyses and papers are of dubious quality at best, and I'm in awe that you would try to suggest otherwise.
.... and nothing that you or anyone else has written so far has made any good points to counter this statement "As far as English language articles on the 055s go, this one is above average, but it is obviously below the quality of understanding that most of us have for the 055."
Unless of course you don't pay attention to what the community provides in terms of 055 related pictures, rumours and information, in which case I can understand how that paper may be seen as impressive.
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