Re: J-20... The New Generation Fighter III
that is no realistic at all, if WS-10 is ready for production then building J-10s with WS-10 is logic, China does not build 100 J-10s a year, if the J-10 is an equivalent of F-16A maybe, but J-10 has more advanced avionics than F-16s of 1980s and 1990s, J-10 has avionics of 2000s, similar to Gripen, LCA of F-16 of latest blocks, this means it is not as easy to build, so i think China builds 20-30 jets a year for its force alone, avionics is what really raises the price of modern jets, today an F-22 is expected to do the job of 3-4 F-15s, a J-10 in 2011 must be as good as 2 to 3 F-16As in fighting capability just simply by radar, F-16As of 1980s are not even as advanced as a JF-17 or a modern F-16 block 60, China is not building many J-10s too because you only have a production line in China, F-16 were built in Europe and many other countries.
Just because it has more advanced equipment does not mean it's harder to build. Regardless, the 20-30 air frames a year is probably an accurate number (anyone want to confirm). However, you have to keep in mind that the J-11 also uses the WS-10, and we have seen many instances of the J-11 with WS-10s already. The J-11 uses two engines to the J-10s one, so if we assumed that they built 30 J-10s and 30 J-11s, that would mean they need 90 WS-10s a year to keep pace with the air frames. 90 turbofans a year sounds like a pretty hard number to keep pace with if you only have one line of production.
these leaves you with Al-31s for the next 3-4 years of J-10s production, do i think WS-10 might start production in 2011? maybe but for test aircraft but the WS-10 is clearly not ready most likely the Ws-10 will be ready in 2-3 years time and that shows why they bought 123 Al-31s.
However they were discussing a further batch of 150 Al-31s, if that happens means WS-10 is a failure.
Actually, all the examples of new WS-10 equipped J-11s we've seen were inducted airplanes. In that sense, the WS-10s seems clearly ready for regular service.
Keep in mind that not all 123 new AL-31FNs are going into new airplanes. The oldest J-10s are nearly a decade old already, and will probably be in need of re-engining. If this is the first cycle of re-engining for older air frames, presuming that initial production was half the rate of current production (which is an assumption on my part, anyone remember how many J-10s were inducted in its first year?), that means they would need an addition of 15 new turbofans a year. That bumps up the turbofan requirement per year for J-10s to 45, which means 123 new AL-31FNs would last short of 3 years, assuming that the re-engining requirements aren't higher or that they don't intend on further accelerating the J-10's production (which is a distinct possibility given a potential naval variant of the J-10).
2 years is probably the window for the J-10B's induction, and there's no guarantee the WS-10 could ramp up production to fulfill the engining of both old and new air frame by then, though that's probably the target. As a thought experiment lets assume they wanted to re-engine old J-10s with the WS-10 while engining both new J-11s and new J-10s with WS-10s. That would bump up the number of WS-10s per year needed to keep up with engining requirements to 105 turbofans. Then if we presume just 15 old J-11As that need re-engining every year, the number of WS-10s needed every year would bump up to 145. If we add reserve requirements for turbofans, that means they would have to produce more than 145 new WS-10s a year to keep up with the production and maintenance of new and old fighters. That's a pretty tall order if they only have one production line for a turbofan.
This discussion then goes to the 150 new AL-31s (not FNs) orders. That would be enough for 75 flankers, most of which will probably be new, but many of which will also be old air frames that need re-engining. With that in mind, 150 might only be enough turbofans for less than two years. What's interesting to note here is the 150 AL-31 orders cover fewer planes than the AL-31FN orders (due to the J-11 needing two engines for every J-10's one). This seems to imply at least that 150 new AL-31 orders seem insufficient for long term production and maintenance of flanker air frames, excluding the possibility that more flanker lines open up for naval purposes (J-11BHs, J-15s), which would fit well with the idea of splitting engine supply between a WS-10 that's still expanding production and AL-31s that can immediately fulfill supply shortages to prevent bottle-necking of production.
It's unnecessary to assume the WS-10 is a failure simply because more AL-31s are being ordered. Given the number of new turbofans that would be needed to keep up with the production of new air frames and the maintenance of old ones it's unlikely the WS-10 could immediately fulfill demand by itself this early in its production run. Limited production capacity of the WS-10 is a better fit explanation. Otherwise, they wouldn't already be flying J-11s with WS-10s and testing the J-10B with it.
So tell me why we have not heared of another engine from China for J-10s? the US had F-110 and F-100s, but China still relies on Al-31s.
So now do you think J-20 has Ws-15, i do not think so.
Well, that's certainly an intelligent argument. Clearly, the only way we can say the WS-10 is a success is if China is fielding another indigenous design.
The US had F-110s and F-100s because they needed to keep two defence contractors happy while trying to leverage each company to cut costs (whether that worked or not is another matter). In other words, it has nothing to do with whether the WS-10 is ready, since its clearly being used in new J-11Bs. We have not heard of "another engine" for China because there is no need for some other engine. The J-11s are already flying with the WS-10.
In case you didn't hear the news, here's an inducted J-11B flying with the WS-10
WRT to the F-110 and F-100.
"The F-16 Fighting Falcon entered service powered by the Pratt & Whitney F100 afterburning turbofan. Seeking a way to drive unit costs down, the USAF implemented the Alternative Fighter Engine (AFE) program in 1984, under which the engine contract would be awarded through competition. The F110 currently powers 86% of the USAF F-16C/Ds (June 2005)."
And no, I do not think the J-20 is powered by the WS-15. I was saying the WS-15's success is tied to the WS-10s, not that the J-20 is already flying with the WS-15 (I don't know you concluded that)
