Do you doubt the humanitarian nature of the mission?
I agree.
Some photos of the ships preparing for movement into the Black Sea.
Russia Vs Georgia..a widening crisis!
- Thread starter Finn McCool
- Start date
Do you doubt the humanitarian nature of the mission?
I agree.
Some photos of the ships preparing for movement into the Black Sea.
I have discovered the names of the vessels in the NATO group that passed through the straits into the Black Sea yesterday and todfay to help with the humanitarian efforts.
Those vessels include a Spanish AEGIS vessel, the F100 class Frigate, F102 Bourbon, a strong German Bremen Class frigate, the F214 Luebeck, and a Polish vessel that is a former Perry Class US Friagte, upgraded for the Polish, the Polaski.
This (in addition to the US Burke class AEGIS destroyer) is a very strong and capable task force. Those vessels are going to be very capable of very strong air defense, surface action, anti-submarine warfare, and ground support...in addition to the humanitarian support.
Spanish AEGIS frigate, F100 class Juan de Bourbon, F102
German Bremen Class Frigate, the FGS Luebeck, F 214
Polish former Perry class FFG, the ORP General K Pulaski
Powerful statement. I hope the Russians move out of Poti so the humanitarian supplies can be delivered to the Georgian people.
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Re the US Humvees that were seized by the Russian in Poti:
"" (AFP, 1 Day Ago):
More at the link. Undoubtedly this has led to some consternation in Washington (and Quantico).
As to a direct confrontation between Russia and the US over Georgia, this seems practically unthinkable. Not saying it isn't possible, just that it can't make a lot of sense. Granted, the US may well rearm Georgia, at least up to a point, but for the US and Russia to get really serious seems like courting a disaster, regardless of who "wins". The important thing right now is to see the Russians withdraw, more or less, from as much of Georgia as possible, and to restrain the Georgians themselves. Then there must be time to really think this over.
Perhaps a US troop presence may be necessary in the long run, but only as a "tripwire"; the force itself cannot be so large as to seriously antagonize the Russians, but it must be large enough to at least provide a real stiffener to the Georgian Army as a whole. And of course, the Georgians must be capable of conventional as well as LIC missions; this will take a long time and a lot of resources. Even with the US now starting to thin out in Iraq, the increasing demands of Afghanistan together with the continuing demands of Iraq will make it very tough to find enough good trainers/contractors to help get the Georgians up to scratch.
Hopefully the Russians won't impede the US humanitarian effort any, especially the naval lift.
"" (AFP, 1 Day Ago):
More at the link. Undoubtedly this has led to some consternation in Washington (and Quantico).
As to a direct confrontation between Russia and the US over Georgia, this seems practically unthinkable. Not saying it isn't possible, just that it can't make a lot of sense. Granted, the US may well rearm Georgia, at least up to a point, but for the US and Russia to get really serious seems like courting a disaster, regardless of who "wins". The important thing right now is to see the Russians withdraw, more or less, from as much of Georgia as possible, and to restrain the Georgians themselves. Then there must be time to really think this over.
Perhaps a US troop presence may be necessary in the long run, but only as a "tripwire"; the force itself cannot be so large as to seriously antagonize the Russians, but it must be large enough to at least provide a real stiffener to the Georgian Army as a whole. And of course, the Georgians must be capable of conventional as well as LIC missions; this will take a long time and a lot of resources. Even with the US now starting to thin out in Iraq, the increasing demands of Afghanistan together with the continuing demands of Iraq will make it very tough to find enough good trainers/contractors to help get the Georgians up to scratch.
Hopefully the Russians won't impede the US humanitarian effort any, especially the naval lift.
I hope you are not saying that the US would withhold unloading the supplies just because the Russians were still holding the port and prepared to distribute the aid themselves?
The Russians have already demonstrated that they are not interested in aiding the Georgians.I hope you are not saying that the US would withhold unloading the supplies just because the Russians were still holding the port and prepared to distribute the aid themselves?
The US will not commit tons of supplies to what the US and Georgians consider to be the agressor. They will handle the distribution themselves.
My guess is, if the Russians have not left Poti, that there will higher tensions in that area, while the supplies are offloaded at Batumi.
But I also believe that the Russians will leave Poti in the near future. After all, they have signed an agreement committing themselves to do so, and their President has promised that they would do so as well.
I think the latest news is that they are moving out of Poti. Igotei and Gori are being abandoned by the Russians as well. A Russian commander has announced that the withdrawl is complete. There are still Russian soldiers on Georgian terriorty however, in Georgia proper, if I am not mistaken.
Undoubtedly this area will become highly militarized; I can see this being much like South Korea. If Georgia becomes more highly integrated with the EU then we can I could see the North/South Korea or West/East Germany dynamic playing out here, where one side of the line (Georgia) becomes massively more prosperous and freer than the other side (South Ossetia and Abkhazia).
I believe that, under the terms of the cease fire agreement, the Russians were allowed a security buffer zone around both Provinces about 5-7 km wide which they could patrol unitl permanent peace keepers, acceptable to both sides, are brought in.
The Russians have stated intentions to build, and I believe started building, fortified checkpoints in large numbers around both provinces in that area, which is on Georgian soil.
It's a pretty clear statement that they will not be approving any "peacekeeprs" outside of themselves in the forseeable future.
And I agree with your characterization of what may well transpire...both from an east-west confrontation zone, and from an economic standpoint as well.
Quite agreed Finn. A possible fly in the ointment however might be continued Russian attemtps to destabilize Georgia politically and economically, and perhaps to provoke "incidents". The "placing" of SS-21s in South Ossetian hands (as if the SO's can handle SRBMs by themselves
) by the Russians could provide one possible military means of destabilization as well. After all, the Russians live in the region and aren't going to go away, but the US, NATO, and the EU don't live in the Caucasus, and potentially could "go home". Other than that caveat, no arguments.
I think its sort of ironic that the Abkhazians and South Ossetians seem to be so jubilant about their newfound independence. The only form of economic activity in the provinces before the war was smuggling and other crime that took advantage of their unique status. Other than that people lived off Russian pensions. Now the smuggling is gone (militarized border, no economic exchange anyway) and since relastically there isn't much chance of them returning to Georgia the Russians don't have reason to subsidize them anymore. Just about the only economic opportunity Abkhazia and South Ossetia will have is building up industries based on "servicing" the inevitable thousands of Russian "peacekeepers" that will soon be based there.
Providing humanitarian supplies to Georgia is part of the mission, no doubts about that. But it is clearly not the only sole purpose of this mission...