OK, but when should China walk away from the European market. Now or a couple years later.
Russia thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
- Start date
Not just the European market, but US market, Japan market...pretty much every developed market.
It doesn't need to.
Any of those "developed markets" if put under a similar situation as the Russian market is facing right now, with the possible exception of the US, would have collapsed already. Many are heavily dependent on SWIFT, Visa, and Mastercard. Some are not, but are dependent on food or energy imports. And for the few who would be fine even without those in theory, in practice they miss lots of parts in the production chain. For example Canada might have oil, but it does not have the refining capacity, or even the pipelines to export their oil to their own ports. In theory they can cover their own requirements but in practice they can't. And do not even get me started with semiconductors. Other than Japan no country can do its own manufacturing tool chain with just their own products and even Japan depends on foreign factories to make its most advanced designs.
That video is the typical BS I have grown to expect from Visual Politik especially when applied to Russia. They focus on gas exports. They simply ignore gas exports to Europe provide less than a third the revenue to Russia of oil exports. And oil exports are way easier to route to different clients. And in fact they are already selling the oil which the Europeans turned away at their ports to India. Not even China.
That video is the typical BS I have grown to expect from Visual Politik especially when applied to Russia. They focus on gas exports. They simply ignore gas exports to Europe provide less than a third the revenue to Russia of oil exports. And oil exports are way easier to route to different clients. And in fact they are already selling the oil which the Europeans turned away at their ports to India. Not even China.
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With regards to gas, while Russia does export "only" 10bcm piped gas to China right now, it will likely grow to 30bcm over the next 2 years. One year before Russian piped gas exports to China were just 4.1bcm. So exports more than doubled in a single year to 10bcm. This year you will likely see another major jump in exports of gas to China. Maybe another doubling as new facilities will be brought online. Russia has signed contracts with China for 38bcm in Power of Siberia. These can be further expanded to 44bcm. Further deals were also signed to bring gas from Sakhalin to China as well. And prospection of the route for Soyuz Vostok, the real replacement for the European gas routes, is ongoing. This might be as little as 50bcm or as much as 80bcm. And as for those 175bcm to "Europe". 26.7bcm were to Turkey. So it is not even 175bcm. If you add to that ongoing increases in Russian LNG export capacity from that same Yamal peninsula, then Russia might replace all its exports to Europe to other nations in like 5-8 years. And those European countries neither have ongoing projects to get alternative gas capacity of the same volume, nor do they have cheap enough gas they can use as a replacement in the same time frame.
The talk about Russia buying aircraft parts from China is also bogus. Russia itself has a sufficiently advanced aircraft industry in 5 years they will replace most of their aircraft imports with their own production. Which they will then proceed to export worldwide. In fact this is clearly their major reason for Western sanctions to Russia's aircraft and car industry. To try to kill it in the crib. Because it is quite clear you won't be using civilian aircraft parts on military aircraft. Or civilian car parts on military vehicles. They have consistently sabotaged the Irkut MC-21 every single step of the way. With regards to China having to "choose" between Russia and the West for trade. If the West continues with their foolish policies China won't even have the possibility of choice.
The talk about Russia buying aircraft parts from China is also bogus. Russia itself has a sufficiently advanced aircraft industry in 5 years they will replace most of their aircraft imports with their own production. Which they will then proceed to export worldwide. In fact this is clearly their major reason for Western sanctions to Russia's aircraft and car industry. To try to kill it in the crib. Because it is quite clear you won't be using civilian aircraft parts on military aircraft. Or civilian car parts on military vehicles. They have consistently sabotaged the Irkut MC-21 every single step of the way. With regards to China having to "choose" between Russia and the West for trade. If the West continues with their foolish policies China won't even have the possibility of choice.
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broadsword
Brigadier
Deleted
And another. Seem to be a lot of fires and explosions in Russia these days.