Russia thread.

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
How can China shore up it's ally Russia? IMO with the West teaming up on China, Russia and China will benefit from mutual cooperation more and more. Russia is still #2 only to the US in a number of military and aerospace technologies. However, Russia is a weaker partner and it is facing problems along its border (Ukraine, Belarus, Armenia, Moldova). Compared to 450 million EU population, Russia has only 150 million. As far as orbit, more young people are choosing the West and there is a risk Russia could face more brain drain. There is also a danger from Russia's defeatist mentality that they give away too much (as in 1989). Therefore IMO China should not be distrustful of Russia but instead should seek to help Russia strengthen its position along its European frontier.

Discuss Russia issues here.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
How can China shore up it's ally Russia? IMO with the West teaming up on China, Russia and China will benefit from mutual cooperation more and more. Russia is still #2 only to the US in a number of military and aerospace technologies. However, Russia is a weaker partner and it is facing problems along its border (Ukraine, Belarus, Armenia, Moldova). Compared to 450 million EU population, Russia has only 150 million. As far as orbit, more young people are choosing the West and there is a risk Russia could face more brain drain. There is also a danger from Russia's defeatist mentality that they give away too much (as in 1989). Therefore IMO China should not be distrustful of Russia but instead should seek to help Russia strengthen its position along its European frontier.

Discuss Russia issues here.
Hi gadgetcool5,

This is my thinking, China is aiming for a unipolar world so do the Russian and the Iranian. Each had its own interest and may support each other to counter the US and the West. China on the pacific, Iran in the middle east and Russia on the former Soviet republic. Here the BRI initiative may play a role in linking all three countries and they are a perfect complement to each other economy.

The coming Biden administration will finish off the Ukraine issue with Russia, so China I surmised will get a reprieved, but at this hour of need China should stand with Russia on its core issue, If Russia goes down, China will be next, there should be no illusion on what American intentions are.
 

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
Notice how the US didn't leave Syria and now is letting Turkey act as its proxy.

Remember the Belarusian President being fed disinformation that Russian mercenaries headed to Libya were trying to destabilize the Belarusian election, when in fact it was US operatives who did it? When I saw all those people on the streets using the interwar Belarus flag, the flag used after the Russian Empire was partitioned, all at once at the same time, new flags at that, I knew the whole thing was an op. Funded from the outside. Same deal as what happened in Ukraine (with Nazi collaborator flags), or in Armenia, or in Kyrgyzstan. The US is sponsoring coups all over the place. When they can't win an election, they try to do a coup even when the election was fair (like in Bolivia).
Fact is Lukashenko is a dictator, but Belarus is one of the less poorly run (let's put it at that) former Soviet SSRs.
He kept traditional state industries working for their clients in Russia and modernized them. At the same time he let the private sector grow and right now the software sector is a big part of the Belarusian economy (even though they mostly stash their profits abroad in places like Cyprus at least they still have to pay their employees).

These revolts are supposedly "spontaneous" but the people who organize them typically have been trained in US political schools or camps (same thing happened with Hong Kong protestors). They also tried this act on Russia itself, with Navalny as the figurehead, but Russian police are adept at spotting agitators, so it hasn't gone that far. Plus Navalny himself has miserable poll ratings which don't reach 5%.

I think Russia did the right thing in letting Azerbaijan take Nagorno-Karabakh. That put the Armenian coup leaders in their place. Notice how they didn't use their own army directly when the Azeris invaded. The whole objective was to involve Russian troops in the conflict! Because Russia is head of the CSTO! Armenia ceded the territory they conquered in the 1990s, paid with blood, and many Armenians civilians were displaced thanks to US puppet Armenian President who sold his nation's interests to the highest bidder. I think Russia should try to get its hands out of the situation as soon as possible and make a United Nations combined operation so they minimize their footprint there. Had it been me I would have let the Azeris get all the way to the Armenian border!

Their objective is to overextend Russia with all these conflicts and cause a political crisis and implosion of the Russian state. Since they failed to do it inside Russia they fan the flames on their borders. I wouldn't be surprised if Armenian President announces he'll leave the CSTO and blames the Russians for their own losses in the war and tries to enter NATO. I think Russia should just leave them be.

The Belarus and Ukraine conflicts are IMHO pivotal, but the conflicts around Turkey are all potential wastes of time for little gain and Russia should have an exit strategy for them.

The Hong Kong protests we associate with Trump weren't planned on his watch. You don't start something like this just like that. They were planning this for years at least since the Obama administration. They were the major proponents of the color revolution strategy and it stuck into the US intelligence apparatus until right now.

So expect them to do the same in China. Never forget the US sponsored Tibetan guerrillas decades back with weapons back when they were already integrated into the PRC.
 

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
How can China shore up it's ally Russia? IMO with the West teaming up on China, Russia and China will benefit from mutual cooperation more and more. Russia is still #2 only to the US in a number of military and aerospace technologies. However, Russia is a weaker partner and it is facing problems along its border (Ukraine, Belarus, Armenia, Moldova). Compared to 450 million EU population, Russia has only 150 million. As far as orbit, more young people are choosing the West and there is a risk Russia could face more brain drain. There is also a danger from Russia's defeatist mentality that they give away too much (as in 1989). Therefore IMO China should not be distrustful of Russia but instead should seek to help Russia strengthen its position along its European frontier.

Discuss Russia issues here.

Russia's power ebbs and flows. If you knew the history of Russia, no one in their right mind would think it would grow into an Empire like that. It started as the tiny Duchy of Muscovy. It was surrounded by enemies on all sides. It had to be a vassal to the Tatars. But, they managed to get rid of the Tatar yoke, won battles (sometimes in multiple fronts) and against all odds conquered princedoms much richer and larger than their own. So, there may be a Time of Troubles, like the Russians say. But when the Russians get galvanized it can be pretty hard to beat them. Numbers isn't everything. You have to consider that much of NATO is a pushover. Germany has trouble getting operational airplanes into place. It is gone to the point where European nations pool together resources in order to have quick reaction forces on the level of brigades not battalions. Most of the troops have poor morale to begin with and equipment is poorly maintained. France was one of the few exceptions to this but with this President even France's military is going down the tubes. Just look at Britain. Proposals to stop having main battle tanks altogether get floated around. It is pathetic. Europe isn't a military threat to Russia. What it is, is an economic and political challenge to them.

If anything militarily the Turks are much more of a problem. Poland might grow to be a problem but it isn't one. Yet.

Like I said, Russia has the potential to be China's Canada. If the Russians can adjust to their new position and the Chinese accommodate it I think it could be great. I'll give you one example. You know who is one of the first buyers of Chinese semiconductor manufacturing tools? Russia. Because of sanctions since Cold War times Russia never could get modern semiconductor machine tools. The Russian government tried to ignite their semiconductor industry in the 2000s with Medvedev and failed because of this. Russia actually has a lot of people who are great at basic science and some semiconductor design talent too. Much like Canada despite being a minor to the US had its GPU industry at ATI (now part of AMD) or had Blackberry. Because of market restraints (remember they can only produce lagging semiconductors because of the tools bans, also Russia has poor port access except for places like St. Petersburg but even that gets ice) only products sold to the government or the military actually have traction. Like smart card chips for id cards, or processors for the government like Elbrus 2000.

Russia can sell China all sorts of materials. Uranium, oil, gas, black coal, iron (yep, not only Australia has iron). Just read about Magnitogorsk. It can also act as a second hub for tech development with different and sometimes complementary competences with China. They both need to get this figured out. Canada also does the same. Just look at Pratt&Whitney. It is basically a Canadian-US company. Canada also sells uranium, oil, timber, to the US. Similar latitudes and similar problems. Similar population fractions. Canada is roughly 1:10 the population of the US. Similar to Russia vs China. Only problem, like you said, is borders. But Russia has enough military hardware and enough population, unlike some think, to cope with that. Much of the Russian Far East is underdeveloped and massive resources remain untapped there. There is low population, but with modern tools and equipment it doesn't matter. Australia has 26 million people and it can be a mining giant because of that. They used to gloat about how they hadn't a recession for over 30 years, how they were thus "recession proof". Well all it took was a big mouthed Australian Prime Minister and "poof" there goes your biggest and almost only customer.

It requires massive investments. But if the resources in the Russian Far East are tapped then China's North would have massive resources available to it. The focus of development would thus shift from the South to the North a bit. People talk about how Australia is great because they can send things by boat. Well. Do you think all the mines are close to the coast? They need to go by rail to get to the coast too.

The South can find iron elsewhere be it South America (problematic) or Africa (better option but highly unstable).
 
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ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Hi gelgoog,

Very good summary,

There will be a future conflict in the region and it may involve Russia cause nobody trust her to be a honest broker. The Russian was goofed to intervened in the Armenian-Azeri conflict, Turkey is the culprit, it forced Russian to intervene and arbitrated, both side is dissatisfied with the result, this put Russia in a bad light and politician on both side blame Russia for it. Remember Armenia and Russia had a treaty obligation and both of them are of the same Christian faith. In trying to have a favorable condition it will only weaken its hand it the future.

It's time to punish the Turks, but the Russian are reluctant, Edrogan had able to read Putin mind and act accordingly. For me since Turkey had deployed its Islamic fighter from Syria to Azerbaijan, Russia need to finish off the IDLIB enclave resistance. Cutting out Turkey's role in the conflict. Instead of being tied down in a war of attrition.
 

gelgoog

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Registered Member
The Russians blew up that insurgent training camp in Idlib.
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I doubt there weren't Turkish military advisors there.
It was a message from the Russians to the Turks that incidents like the shooting down of the Russian helicopter wouldn't be tolerated.

But, yes, I agree they should have been more decisive in Idlib.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Hi gelgoog,

Regarding Belarus, Putin is lucky to have Lukashenko as president, He may had a personal rivalry with Putin and maybe a pain in the ass for Russia, But he is tough and uncompromising. He known what happen in Ukraine and most of the protesters are not Belarusian , mostly imported from Poland. Lukashenko flirt with the West to leverage Putin now he is under sanction by the EU, he will be more circumspect and be more amenable to Russia.
 

Surpluswarrior

Junior Member
VIP Professional
China and Russia have very mutual interests today. It will be more difficult for both countries to be independent and sovereign if they are alone.

I guess the question is, how can they maximize the benefit of co-operation? We notice that Russia isn't just handing China any technological advantages it may have [submarines, engines, etc...] and China isn't just handing Russia money. They each need to get something for their investment.

Russia can't just hand over any unique technology to China, because it still needs something to sell. Russia could lose foreign markets to China.

It would be nice to see more projects where Russian and Chinese strengths come into play together. Russian rockets and aerospace with Chinese electronics. Armata could be a joint project with China, meaning huge production and massive economies of scale. These are crude examples, and maybe not feasable. But both countries know what they are facing against, and should find ways for helpful integration. The Russian building of a nuclear-early-warning system for China is one example of something that strengthens both partners.
 

gelgoog

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Registered Member
Not just the nuclear-early-warning system, I think they should cooperate with space based assets as well.

Once the ISS is de-orbited (stations don't last forever) Russia and China will cooperate in a space station. Russia already announced their intention to do so. Russia cannot afford a large space station by itself but they have a lot of elements they can contribute to a space station. For example they have some of the best water and air recycling systems (technology also applicable to submarines to an extent). There was also the joke about how the US toilet on the ISS broke and everyone had to use the Russian toilet. Well, there are lots of little things like these which won't be apparent until China tries to have long endurance missions (months or years) in space.

I think they should also cooperate in global satellite networks. I know Russia has issues with often only partial networks in place. China also has a much better launch site (closer to the equator) than Russia. For example there is no good reason for having both GLONASS and Beidu unless they can't cooperate for some reason. If both nations have access to a military grade signal this could be a place for cooperation. In exchange Russia could grant some of the technologies they have for reconnaissance satellites for early warning for example. Or they could have an agreement to share satellite intelligence together.

You have to consider that there is more to being a reliable partner than just giving all the technology away. As long as Russia is a reliable trade partner then they can produce some items and sell those to China. That provides them with resources which they can invest into R&D. Had it not been for sales to China and India, Russia would have had issues funding further T-90 and Su-30 upgrades for example. Same deal in reverse. Russia, once China has its own nationalized chip production equipment, may either import Chinese equipment or even fabricate government chips in China (SMIC) instead of Taiwan (TSMC). With a reliable manufacturing partner for chips, Russia could invest more on chip design than they do today, with a local plant with similar technology and processes in a smaller scale, they can do component testing for mass manufacture in China.

Russia has other technologies which it exported to China we did not discuss here before. For example Russia transferred the technology for their 6th generation uranium enrichment centrifuges to China. China already improved on that technology and made their own versions. Russia also has a later generation version for it. Russia has exported their fast sodium cooled nuclear reactor technology to China. Little known fact, Russia is one of the main world producers of carbon nanotubes. They are now starting their own production lines for large composite structures (Japan is the leader there) and one example is the wing of the MC-21 or the skin of the Su-57.
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Russia has contracted Chinese companies to build the Moscow metro extension and are also considering doing the same for high speed rail. It will be difficult to build a network as extensive in Russia though. Other than the Moscow-St. Petersburg axis the Russian population outside of the European side is quite sparse. In that case aviation is more suitable and Russia is building an extensive and renovated airport network for that. I already mentioned possible Russian-Chinese cooperation on the CRAIC 929 and if that is successful I think similar collaboration could happen for either a single MC-21/C919 successor aircraft design with twin production lines or the CR939.
A CR939, think Airbus A350/Boeing 777 competitor, would provide both nations with experience in larger aircraft and with the technology to make larger engines which would be useful not just for the airline business, but also for stationary power (think gas turbine power plant), or marine gas turbines for large naval vessels.

Another technology China could benefit from with collaboration with Russia would be certain high energy electronics. For example the Russians manufacture the Linear Transformer Drivers (LTD) used in the latest iteration of the USA Sandia Laboratories Z-Machine. This is a so called z-pinch fusion facility. AFAIK the Chinese don't have a facility like that and the LTD is basically the main component in building it. It is a device used to trickle charge a high amount of electricity and then quickly discharge it in a fraction of a second. It replaces the Marx generators previously used in the Z-Machine. If China imported that technology and built a similar facility it could not only help them with fusion power experiments, it would also help them model fusion explosions, for nuclear weapons stockpile maintenance and warhead design.

Another area of collaboration: Russia is modernizing its naval shipyards and it is using Chinese equipment to do this. One example is the Zvezda shipyard in the Far East. Russia has a long shoreline to defend so having a decent enough navy is paramount.

You mentioned cooperation in tank design, well, I am less sure about that. I think the design requirements are kind of different. At best there could be component sharing but I think each country has its own design school. With regards to helicopters I think each country has opted for a different infrastructure in terms of powerplants which means technology sharing will be difficult.
 

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
First MC-21 Powered by Russian Engines Takes Flight

The MC-21 program already has flown four MC-21-300 prototypes equipped with Pratt & Whitney PW1400G turbofans and now hopes to gain certification for the Western engine-powered version by the end of 2021. The PD-14-powered MC-21-310 emerged as a reaction to the threat of tightening economic sanctions by the U.S. that might limit the amount of Western content in the new narrowbody. UAC has since offered the PD-14 to power China’s Comac C919 to address U.S. sanctions against that country.
"[The] MC-21-310 heads to the development tests and [is] joining the certification program,” commented UAC general director Yury Slyusar. “The ability for customers to choose the type of aircraft engine expands the aircraft's market potential and reduces the risks of the program.”

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