"Red line" on Taiwan issue

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Roger604

Senior Member
Wow, the news today is disturbing. I wonder how the CMC would view this latest move. Does this cross the "red line"? If the momentum toward de jure independence continues, will an attack be imminent?



Finally, some courage from Chen

The Liberty Times Editorial

Sunday, Feb 26, 2006,Page 8

Despite heavy external pressure and attempts by local pro-China groups to create problems, President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) has decided to abolish the National Unification Council (NUC) and the unification guidelines.
When Chen received Republican Representative Robert Simmons of Connecticut, he said the council was "an absurd product of an absurd era" and that it violates the spirit of democracy.

Since the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) has already modified its stance by saying that Taiwanese independence is one of the public's options, it is only sensible that the council and the guidelines be abolished.

At that meeting, Chen also said that the "1992 consensus" was a lie.

He said that over the past few years, Taiwan's opposition parties, China and the US have again and again demanded the acceptance of the "1992 consensus." Now former Mainland Affairs Council chairman and KMT Legislator Su Chi (蘇起) has admitted that he made up the "consensus."

Chen also accused the KMT and the Chinese Communist Party of cheating the world on the matter. When KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou, (馬英九) during an interview with the BBC a few days ago, stressed that the "1992 consensus" should be made the foundation for negotiations with China, he, too, cheated himself and everyone else.

Chen's courage in pushing for the abolition of the council and the guidelines is significant.

The change of power in 2000 was an excellent opportunity for Taiwan to become a normal country.

But the new government only made tiny steps in this direction due to restrictions imposed by the "four noes" and the "1992 consensus."

Binding itself hand and foot to these ideas, the government also adopted the policy of opening up Chinese trade, which resulted in an outflow of capital, technology and skills.

So, on the one hand, Taiwan has been prepared to strike compromises and humiliate itself, and on the other it has opened the door and welcomed the bandits inside.

It is a situation that has proved difficult to undo.

The tragic thing is that Taiwanese know they have been wronged, but are unable to put things right.

Taiwan's promise to abide by the "four noes" was never going to convince China to abandon the threat to invade. Instead, there was a rapid increase in the number of missiles pointed in this direction and the passage of the "Anti-Secession" Law.

Since China does not intend to give up the option of military action, there is no need to stick to any pledge.

Chen's efforts to abolish the council and guidelines does not violate the "four noes" pledge anyway. He is only terminating the operation of a government agency and a doctrine that has not been convened or invoked in six years.

As Chen's proposal only requires an administrative procedure, how is it going to aggravate cross-strait tensions?

The reason cross-strait relations have not improved is because China does not want to renounce force, nor is it willing to treat Taiwan on an equal footing. Taiwan receives no goodwill from across the Strait.

It is China that is attempting to alter the cross-strait status quo and blame Taiwan for escalating cross-strait tensions.

There is now a clear consensus in Taiwan that only Taiwanese may determine the nation's future. The KMT, whose stated goal is unification, has also recently shifted its stance. However, the guidelines see unification as the only option.

Doing away with a government agency and its ossified doctrine of inferiority is not only the best way of asserting our self-belief, but is also a reflection of mainstream opinion.

That is to say, no one has the right to determine Taiwan's future other than Taiwanese themselves.

When Taiwanese and Chinese representatives met in Hong Kong in 1992, the latter insisted on the "one China" principle, while the KMT negotiators demanded that each side be allowed to make its own interpretation of the principle.

No consensus was reached. Beijing's rejection of any consensus has now been verified by Su, who admits to having made the whole thing up. The consensus was therefore a scam orchestrated by the KMT.

The DPP has spent six years looking for new directions for the nation's future. It has now come to its senses, and has chosen to return to the path of Taiwanese consciousness.

It must be stated that Chen has faced tremendous pressure from the US over this development. He certainly needs to resolve tensions with the US and improve communication with Washington.

But abolishing the council and guidelines is the correct move, and having decided to do so Chen must hold firm.

TRANSLATED BY PERRY SVENSSON AND DANIEL CHENG

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vincelee

Junior Member
another case AGAINST democracy.

You know, democracy is only as good as the voting base, and I think it's well documented that the average Joe is a rather stupid person.
 

The_Zergling

Junior Member
I don't think that this will be the "Red line" that will have China lobbing missiles towards Taiwan...

If the Chinese leadership is smart all they have to do is consider, "Hey, the Taiwanese don't have a dictatorship, they have elections, so this troublemaker is going to be out of office in a few years, and after that a KMT president will definitely take power because the DPP is screwing up now, so why the rush?"

And then they sit back and sip their tea, snickering while Taiwan's economy gets so bad that by 2010 they're BEGGING to be integrated into the economy...

In short, I'm not worried. (About war. I'm worrying about the Taiwan economy)
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
I think the Zergling has the jist of it.

Whilst there is an active political and commercial opposition, the PRC will not be overly concerned. It would need a largely unanimous consensus amongst the Taiwanese Elite and Public to provoke even the beginnings of an embargoe or blockade, let alone a shooting war.
 

Obcession

Junior Member
Zergling, I agree with most of your points except one.

The Taiwan economy is already very dependent on PRC, and will be increasingly more dependent on it. As long as the PRC economy is booming, it is safe to say that the Taiwan economy will be dragged along with it. So in a couple of years, I don't see the Taiwan economy going awry, infact I think it will be even more prosperous. BUT, if China decides to stop trading with Taiwan, surely Taiwan's economy will suffer. But the PRC economy will hurt as well, and thus it is not such a good idea. Therefore, although Taiwan will be relying on the PRC economy more and more, it will not go downhill, atleast in the foreseeable future.
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
don't think beijing is going to do much about this.. they are pretty much at the stage of not caring what chen does, bc they know he can't do much anyways. and just try to get the voters on taiwan to vote in a KMT leader in 2008.
 

Roger604

Senior Member
I'm confused about what you mean. Why can't CSB "do much"? Can't he hold a referendum on independence? Can't he start endorsing independence openly and sell it to the population? Can't he start developing 'relations' with Japan and maybe other countries?

I am very disturbed by the recent news because I fear he is pushing Taiwan down this path now instead of risking a defeat in the next presidential election.
 

The_Zergling

Junior Member
Roger604 said:
I'm confused about what you mean. Why can't CSB "do much"? Can't he hold a referendum on independence? Can't he start endorsing independence openly and sell it to the population? Can't he start developing 'relations' with Japan and maybe other countries?

I am very disturbed by the recent news because I fear he is pushing Taiwan down this path now instead of risking a defeat in the next presidential election.

I have to admit you have me confused by this post... CSB doesn't have another presidential election to worry about...

Yes he can hold a referendum on independence, which would be a waste of time and money because as I stated before Taiwan is already pretty much a de facto country in itself. He can indeed endorse Taiwan identity openly and sell it to the population, in fact that was one of his campaign tactics in the last election.

However, he cannot develop relations with other countries, because of China. Nearly every country wants a piece of China's market because of its ludicrous possibilities. China is generally happy to let this happen, but there's one catch, if you recognize China you have to disavow Taiwan.

Only a handful of countries (mostly Central American countries that many people haven't even heard of) still recognize Taiwan.

In short, the above reason is the main reason why I don't think the Chinese leadership will care what Chen does (by this I mean be seriously worried), because they have control of the world's pursestrings, while Taiwan has no bargaining power.

Obcession's post got me curious about how economically China and Taiwan are entwined... I'll post more about that once I learn more...
 

Typhoon

Banned Idiot
I guess Zsergling is right again, there is no need for China to do anything. As a matter of fact, let's face it, even China wants to do anything, China doesn't have the muscle do it.

If United States hasn't backed up Taiwan from the begining, there's simply no Taiwan problem. Even today, it is the Uncle Sams to allow CSB to step on the red line. CSB doesn't have any gut to step on the red line without the backup. The backup is there even both Taiwan and Uncle Sames don't want to say it explicitly this tme. China just pretends they didn't see it.

If China has the muscle, Taiwan will automatically happily reunion with its motherland --- just like Hawaii happily to be a part of United States even they are not culturally and historically related. HeHeHe! :rofl:

A simple question you have to ask: China politically agrees that Hawaii is part of US. But, did China has a domestic "Hawaii Realtion Act" to sells arms to Hawaii, tell Hawaiians they don't look like Americans, they don't talk like Americans, they don't act like Americans, so they must stand up to fight for their own freedom and independence. Long live the Kingdom of Hawaii! HAHAHA!:rofl: HEHEHE! :roll:
 

Gollevainen

Colonel
VIP Professional
Registered Member
hehehe indeed...Now back in line!:eek:ff
This thread is on the edge so cut out useles BS will you?
 
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