PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
I doubt that there would be defecting pilots this day and age but PRC moles are a very legitimate concern. Most are bought via conventional means like money/business influence but the scariest from the Taiwan perspective are ones who are doing it out of ideological reasons. A not insignificant portion of the ROC upper brass where born and raised during the Chiang era and believe in reunification with every fiber of their being. Even though they were raised to hate the CCP, reunification under the ROC banner is no longer a viable option and some of them have opted for the next best thing.
Actually I disagree there. defections or moles are not a huge issue now but as a war becomes more inevitable, given the obvious power imbalance, some in Taiwan maybe compelled to hedge their chances.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Actually I disagree there. defections or moles are not a huge issue now but as a war becomes more inevitable, given the obvious power imbalance, some in Taiwan maybe compelled to hedge their chances.
After the first day passes and they see that the US is not coming to their rescue, reality will sink in and they will soon start surrendering/defecting.

Taiwan is not Afghanistan
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
After the first day passes and they see that the US is not coming to their rescue, reality will sink in and they will soon start surrendering/defecting.

Taiwan is not Afghanistan
The US is not stupid. They will make all the noises and moves like they will get involved throughout the campaign and broadcast it even if they have zero intention of actually fighting themselves to keep the fighting going for as long and as hard as possible and also to put pressure on the PLA to move as quickly as possible and potentially take more risks and suffer higher costs than if they could move at their preferred pace and timetables

So I would not expect a total collapse anywhere close to being so soon. The big sea change will happen once PLA ground forces land in force. Before then the RoC military will fight on. Although there is a modest chance of a Kosovo scenario happening where after initial bombardment has made PLA full spectrum dominance clear, and with the invasion itself imminent, the surviving generals may coup English Vegetables and offer up her head on a silver platter (maybe literally) to try to save their own hides.

Then the US will blame the fall of Taiwan on English Veg and the unwillingness of the locals to fight for themselves, so are not worthy of American blood and lives to protect them aka copy pasta excuses from Afghanistan.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
The US is not stupid. They will make all the noises and moves like they will get involved throughout the campaign and broadcast it even if they have zero intention of actually fighting themselves to keep the fighting going for as long and as hard as possible and also to put pressure on the PLA to move as quickly as possible and potentially take more risks and suffer higher costs than if they could move at their preferred pace and timetables

So I would not expect a total collapse anywhere close to being so soon. The big sea change will happen once PLA ground forces land in force. Before then the RoC military will fight on. Although there is a modest chance of a Kosovo scenario happening where after initial bombardment has made PLA full spectrum dominance clear, and with the invasion itself imminent, the surviving generals may coup English Vegetables and offer up her head on a silver platter (maybe literally) to try to save their own hides.

Then the US will blame the fall of Taiwan on English Veg and the unwillingness of the locals to fight for themselves, so are not worthy of American blood and lives to protect them aka copy pasta excuses from Afghanistan.

Some of them already are. In half a decade they'd be able to boast about eerie prescience too.

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Should we so easily promise that the 7th Fleet will be there to save them?

At this point an admission is due: it is easy for me to write all that. It is easy for me to judge, to pontificate on why some other country needs to militarize its society. The costs are not my own. I will not be called up for a year’s conscription. I will not be paying higher taxes; it is not my culture at stake. But the call is now going out for America to commit itself to Taiwan’s defense. I cannot advocate sending American servicemen to die for the sake of a country that is not serious about defending itself. Unless American diplomats deliver a similar ultimatum to the Taiwanese, I am not sure they ever will be.
 

drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
The US is not stupid. They will make all the noises and moves like they will get involved throughout the campaign and broadcast it even if they have zero intention of actually fighting themselves to keep the fighting going for as long and as hard as possible and also to put pressure on the PLA to move as quickly as possible and potentially take more risks and suffer higher costs than if they could move at their preferred pace and timetables

So I would not expect a total collapse anywhere close to being so soon. The big sea change will happen once PLA ground forces land in force. Before then the RoC military will fight on. Although there is a modest chance of a Kosovo scenario happening where after initial bombardment has made PLA full spectrum dominance clear, and with the invasion itself imminent, the surviving generals may coup English Vegetables and offer up her head on a silver platter (maybe literally) to try to save their own hides.

Then the US will blame the fall of Taiwan on English Veg and the unwillingness of the locals to fight for themselves, so are not worthy of American blood and lives to protect them aka copy pasta excuses from Afghanistan.
I think the messaging game is a little more complex for the US. it adheres to a strategic ambiguity specifically because it does not want a war on Taiwan now. if it should communicate its intentions to intervene, taiwan will be encouraged to move towards war. Now if the US decides that it is time for China to fight this war over Taiwan then that is not an issue. But what does become an issue at that point is messaging to international and domestic audiences. a prospect of war with China will certainly send markets into a tailspin, but if the US does not intervene at the end of that it gets the worst of both worlds, markets caput, but it also ceded Taiwan to China along with its credibility.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I think the messaging game is a little more complex for the US. it adheres to a strategic ambiguity specifically because it does not want a war on Taiwan now. if it should communicate its intentions to intervene, taiwan will be encouraged to move towards war. Now if the US decides that it is time for China to fight this war over Taiwan then that is not an issue. But what does become an issue at that point is messaging to international and domestic audiences. a prospect of war with China will certainly send markets into a tailspin, but if the US does not intervene at the end of that it gets the worst of both worlds, markets caput, but it also ceded Taiwan to China along with its credibility.
No my point is on the games the US will play once armed reunification has commenced even when America has already decided to sit the war out.

They will say, ‘we are coming, we are coming, just hold on while we gather out forces’.

Then after Taiwan falls they will say, ‘look at all these forces we gathered! And those surrender monkeys couldn’t even hold out for 1 more week! We would have totally go in had they shown some actual backbone, but such cowards are not worth the American blood and lives to save. Also we were only talking about defending Taiwan from a Chinese invasion, no one ever said anything about retaking Taiwan from China. Which is a totally different ball game! So we loose zero credibility in not fighting. Just like how we lost zero credibility pulling out of Afghanistan the way we did.’
 

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
No my point is on the games the US will play once armed reunification has commenced even when America has already decided to sit the war out.

They will say, ‘we are coming, we are coming, just hold on while we gather out forces’.

Then after Taiwan falls they will say, ‘look at all these forces we gathered! And those surrender monkeys couldn’t even hold out for 1 more week! We would have totally go in had they shown some actual backbone, but such cowards are not worth the American blood and lives to save. Also we were only talking about defending Taiwan from a Chinese invasion, no one ever said anything about retaking Taiwan from China. Which is a totally different ball game! So we loose zero credibility in not fighting. Just like how we lost zero credibility pulling out of Afghanistan the way we did.’
They did lose credibility when they pulled out the way they did in Afghanistan.

Although, I suppose they can use their media control to influence/hide the fact they lost credibility. But that really only affects the regular masses.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
T
No my point is on the games the US will play once armed reunification has commenced even when America has already decided to sit the war out.

They will say, ‘we are coming, we are coming, just hold on while we gather out forces’.

Then after Taiwan falls they will say, ‘look at all these forces we gathered! And those surrender monkeys couldn’t even hold out for 1 more week! We would have totally go in had they shown some actual backbone, but such cowards are not worth the American blood and lives to save. Also we were only talking about defending Taiwan from a Chinese invasion, no one ever said anything about retaking Taiwan from China. Which is a totally different ball game! So we loose zero credibility in not fighting. Just like how we lost zero credibility pulling out of Afghanistan the way we did.’
That only works for the masses. The Elites have already drawn a lesson from Afghanistan

If it happens again on Taiwan, then their faith towards American "security" guarantees will collapse overnight
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Some of them already are. In half a decade they'd be able to boast about eerie prescience too.

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I must say, what a narrow minded arrogant idiot that blogger guy is.

His suggestions and strategies are pure shite, designed purely from an American fuck-China-at-costs mindset with zero thought or considering for the people who he says needs to do all the fighting and dying; and who had displayed a truly impressive amount of cultural ignorance and logical fallacies.

The ordinary people of Taiwan who he so casually distains are smarter than him in knowing their history and the current realities - China knows counter insurgency and is god mode at it like no other power. Especially where there is no language barrier.

The PLA doesn’t need to worry about counter insurgency, the PAP will have that handled easily without needing any military support.

For Taiwan to adopt a whole of society resistance approach is to just engage in mass suicide with extra steps.

Only in redneck American wet dreams can armed citizens achieve jack shit in the face of a full military invasion. You can give as many civilians guns as you like, but they will just be so much target practice against real soldiers and police.

It’s also amusing how he seems to think the PLA would need to save their weapons when fighting for Taiwan, almost as if he somehow doesn’t understand the difference between anti-surface and anti-ship weapons and think they can work interchangeably. Did he actually even think any of his arguments through? The PLA needs to save its MLRS and LGBs because everyone knows those are the best weapons to use against carriers and destroyers!
 

zxy_bc

Junior Member
Registered Member
I always find those who believe that the PLA would agree to a "Kosovo scenario" somewhat laughable. Kosovo scenario existed cause the Serbs at the time were exhausted, understrength and outgunned at all sides. (Plus a fairly unstable political leadership) I don't see any of these similarities when looking at the PLA and the CPC in general.
 
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