PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Lol he can't even do some simple research into China's food security (which is fine btw).
escobar
Brigadier
More interesting. And to change that US need to ditch the strategic ambiguity. A formal US guarantee to TW doesn't really raise the risk of conflict much and CN will not take any drastic action.
solarz
Brigadier
Pretty sure China is self-sufficient in food.
As for energy, people forget that China is the factory of the world, and that's the major portion of China's energy consumption. This is far different from the energy requirement of China for war production.
Right, US sells F-35's to Japan/Korea/Europe, but not to Taiwan because a) a defector will go straight to Fujian and handsomely rewarded, b) Taiwan is infested with espionage, or c) F-35 will be added to PLAAF inventory upon easy conquest.
In what world will US defend Taiwan, after it blatantly abandoned Afghanistan, Kurds, South Vietnamese, and Syrian?
Let me guess, US will say: "Why should we risk our American blood when Corrupted Taiwan gov't has lost popular support, has low-military morale, has no will-power to fight?" (essentially victim-blaming and shaming like they did with Afghan puppet gov't). US will throw Taiwan under the bus just like it did with South Vietnam and Afghanistan.
These idiots are stuck in 1990's era where China navy was ass-backwards. The balance of power has permanently swung in China's favor, not just between PLA and ROCA, but also in local warfare in China's coastline against USN.
solarz
Brigadier
Americans don't exactly have a strong record of defending their vassals.
I doubt that there would be defecting pilots this day and age but PRC moles are a very legitimate concern. Most are bought via conventional means like money/business influence but the scariest from the Taiwan perspective are ones who are doing it out of ideological reasons. A not insignificant portion of the ROC upper brass where born and raised during the Chiang era and believe in reunification with every fiber of their being. Even though they were raised to hate the CCP, reunification under the ROC banner is no longer a viable option and some of them have opted for the next best thing.
China's daily oil consumption is about 12Mbpd, of which 3.8Mbpd are domestic production. Chinese import of oil from Russia in 2020 was at about 1.67Mbpd. China is also aggressively moving towards clean energy and electric car. In a large-scale war scenario, approximately half of China's oil production and supply could be guaranteed. Oil would be rationed and export industry would be significantly curtailed. It's sustainable for war machine and war economy from energy consumption standpoint.
You can't even call them PRC moles in Taiwan, because there are far too many of them
30 years ago, those supporting reunification (of some sort) would have constituted a majority of the population in Taiwan
Today, depending on the circumstances, 11%-29% of the Taiwanese population support reunification with mainland China