PLAN Strategy in the Taiwan Strait


texx1

Junior Member
What is “might have” what are the odds. What is the extent of Soviet support and American intervention? Air, Naval, amphibious forces matchup and logistics? These require careful calculations not just bravado.
We are talking about a hypothetical case here. Since the liberation of Taiwan would be an continuation of Chinese civil war, I put less than 40% chance of UN involvement as UN force didn't intervene in mainland. If soviet provided air support over Taiwan strait like it did over north Korea to counter US airpower or managed to limit US full involvement by transport PLA soldiers with its ships, I think PRC could have a 50/50 chance. After all, PRC concentrated over 500,000 soldiers in provinces across from Taiwan.
 

texx1

Junior Member
Not just because of Xinjiang and HK. Being no longer in office is when it hurts. Those three have family and relatives. New tide isn't in power.
New tide fraction is most cohesive and most disciplined fraction among DPP, it focuses on the quality of its members instead of quantity. It is also very active and adept at using NGOs motivating and influencing universities and labours. All of which makes it the most dangerous fraction in DPP.
 

Sleepyjam

Junior Member
Registered Member
We are talking about a hypothetical case here. Since the liberation of Taiwan would be an continuation of Chinese civil war, I put less than 40% chance of UN involvement as UN force didn't intervene in mainland. If soviet provided air support over Taiwan strait like it did over north Korea to counter US airpower or managed to limit US full involvement by transport PLA soldiers with its ships, I think PRC could have a 50/50 chance. After all, PRC concentrated over 500,000 soldiers in provinces across from Taiwan.
Taiwan isn’t the same as the mainland. The Soviets did not want a direct confrontation with the US as demonstrated in Korea. How willing were the Soviets? How will they counter American naval power? Amphibious operations isn’t just about the number of soldiers. Honestly I don’t know how you came up with this 40% and 50/50.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Junior Member
Registered Member
I am saying the PRC made active preparations to liberate Taiwan in the early 50s with troop concentration, amphibious training, trying to purchase transports from soviets, even forming an airborne regiment. Without Korean war, PRC might have liberated Taiwan with soviet support.
Difficult. Hainan campaign was the test case which was March-May 1950. Even though Hainan was won with a huge advantage, it didn't leave time for Taiwan: By June 1950 Korean War already started.
 

texx1

Junior Member
Taiwan isn’t the same as the mainland. The Soviets did not want a direct confrontation with the US as demonstrated in Korea. How willing were the Soviets? How will they counter American naval power? Amphibious operations isn’t just about the number of soldiers. Honestly I don’t know how you came up with this 40% and 50/50.
You asked for odds and I gave your odds. 50/50 is dependent on soviet transporting PLA soldiers with its ships, a bluff daring Americans to sink them. If US also doesn't want to kill many soviet sailors, soviet ships could get close to Taiwan for PLA to land. Since KMT lost most of its trained fighting force on the mainland already, once PLA lands in force, PRC has a good chance.

Anyway, all of this is off topics. If you want to continue. Let's PM each other.
 

Sleepyjam

Junior Member
Registered Member
why are you so agitated at the sight of differing perspectives and opinions? this isn't a china biased forum and we are allowed to express our "non-conforming to the party" viewpoints here. I was simply pondering the supposed reaction of a "no response" reaction from the PLA towards tw independence, I have no way of knowing if or not the PLA will strike, i can only deduct what i think the average chinese will react, if you disagree then simply disagree, calling names to my argument doesn't make yours any more valid. also, i believe despite your flared up emotional chatter, you can't say for certain whether they will or won't either.
Lol so your logic is that you are not being allowed to express your opinions here even though you have just expressed them? Why can’t people disagree with you. What do you know about what people here can or can’t say. Based on your logic no wonder your “deduction” is way off.
 

texx1

Junior Member
Difficult. Hainan campaign was the test case which was March-May 1950. Even though Hainan was won with a huge advantage, it didn't leave time for Taiwan: By June 1950 Korean War already started.
I agree it would be difficult to liberate Taiwan. But Hainan was liberated by PLA fourth field army (northeast PLA) whereas soldiers facing Taiwan were from the Third field army (East China PLA) under Su Yu. Manpower was not a problem though.
 

Sleepyjam

Junior Member
Registered Member
You asked for odds and I gave your odds. 50/50 is dependent on soviet transporting PLA soldiers with its ships, a bluff daring Americans to sink them. If US also doesn't want to kill many soviet sailors, soviet ships could get close to Taiwan for PLA to land. Since KMT lost most of its trained fighting force on the mainland already, once PLA lands in force, PRC has a good chance.

Anyway, all of this is off topics. If you want to continue. Let's PM each other.
That’s not a calculation. Soviets could be pretending to be Chinese like they did in Korea. US could land troops on the island, they could bombard landing troops. There are many more possibilities than the ideal scenario.
 

texx1

Junior Member
That’s not a calculation. Soviets could be pretending to be Chinese like they did in Korea. US could land troops on the island, they could bombard landing troops. There are many more possibilities than the ideal scenario.
Like I said before, the whole thing is hypothetical anyway. Let's just agree to disagree.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Senior Member
Registered Member
why are you so agitated at the sight of differing perspectives and opinions? this isn't a china biased forum and we are allowed to express our "non-conforming to the party" viewpoints here. I was simply pondering the supposed reaction of a "no response" reaction from the PLA towards tw independence, I have no way of knowing if or not the PLA will strike, i can only deduct what i think the average chinese will react, if you disagree then simply disagree, calling names to my argument doesn't make yours any more valid. also, i believe despite your flared up emotional chatter, you can't say for certain whether they will or won't either.
i can only deduct what i think the average chinese will react
How can one deduce the average Chinese person's thinking when the starting point of one's assumptions are based on nothing but projections and conjectures? I have a higher probability of guessing your country's political decisions based on which party is in power based on my time spent, time lived, time educated and invested in your country. In comparison, your "opinion" is not even remotely based on anything tangible based on lived experience, academic studies but may come from underestimation of a society, people, and country that an increased amount of people simply refused to accept. That's where my annoyance came from and I recognize that just because I may find some of the comments about China personally repugnant, highly offensive, shallow, and worst of all ignorant that doesn’t give me the license to insult you (personally)or spew invectives that'll inevitably derail the spirit and rules of the forum. My apologies.

But back to the discussion, the only certainty of outcome you are looking for is for the threshold to be broken and I hope to your God that day wouldn't happen, but if by some unfortunate day it arrives, then you'll have the answer you're looking for and it won't be the one you're expecting or hoping to materialize or I will be proven incorrect which I strongly doubt will happen.
 

Top