PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

A blockade is only ever an option if the PLAN is powerful enough to not care about possible USN involvement. That is not the case at present and in the foreseeable future.

A blockade is slow and unreliable. It also results in mass suffering for the civilian population of Taiwan. Even if that does not generate enough international sympathy for the US to get directly involved (assuming it did not really want to), it will make Taiwan far more difficult to govern after China takes it over. China does not want Taiwan to turn into their Chechnya.

If China decides to commit itself to using force to re-take Taiwan, that's what it will do, and it will do so as quickly as possible, even if that means taking heavier casualties then if they had time to leisurely take Taiwan's defenses apart and systematically destroy its ability to resist.

The first priority is to destroy or ground Taiwan's air force, and suppress its air defenses so that PLAAF offensive air operations can begin to clear the way for an amphibious assault and landing.

Depending on the timetable, the PLAN will likely deploy large numbers of its newest AD FFGs and DDGs in the straits to act as fire magnets to deplete Taiwan's AShM stocks and aid in identifying and destroying hidden missile batteries to clear the way for the troop ships as well as provide protection for the amphibious ships. This will be aided by the PLANAF and PLAAF, who will likely employ CAS, wild weasels and attack helos.

The PLAN and PLA has also shown exercise clips of massed MLSR being loaded onto what looked like container ships and firing, so you can expect them to use that in any actual war, and they won't be shy about how much ordinance they will be using. With the number of container ships and MRLS the PLA has available, they can probably carpet bomb the entire length of beach the plan on assaulting. That should clear away most of the tank traps and mines as well as decimate any defenders not in well built bunkers.

In terms of the amphibious force, I think the PLAN will hold back large ships from the first wave because of the stiff resistance and heavy losses they can expect to take.

I can see large numbers of new LCACs being sent in to minimize losses from missile hits. They will probable carry MBTs and as much mech infantry as could be carried for maximum effect after they hit the beach.

Air cavalry, and if Taiwan's air defenses had been suppressed sufficiently, paratroops will also likely be used in conjunction with the amphibious assault as well as special forces.

The air force will pound the beach defenses and take out transport links/nodes to slow down enemy reinforcements and resupply to the front.

Once the first wave have established a beachhead, the PLAN will start to use its larger amphibious ships to get as many men and machines onto Taiwan as possible to totally overwhelm resistance.

The key word of the entire operation will be 'speed'. The ultimate goal is to take Taiwan so quickly that the US cannot get involved even it wanted to.

Only after they are confident that they can achieve such a swift victory will the PLA start taking a look at how best to minimize casualties.

There is no way that the PLA will employ nuclear weapons to take Taiwan. As Beijing considers Taiwan Chinese territory, and RoC citizens Chinese citizens. Thus that would be like ordering a nuclear strike against one of your own cities. It will never happen.

Aside from the physical damage and political repercussions, Beijing will have to live with, and deal with the fallout and radiation contamination on Taiwan, and with its close proximity to key Chinese manufacturing and economic centers well as huge population centers, the risks that radioactive fallout from a nuclear explosion would blow across the narrow strait and contaminate the above mentioned vitally important areas in mainland China would be unacceptable. That alone would rule out any nuclear first strike before you even take into account the massive harm this would do to China's international image as well as the titanic costs to try to clean up the mess and/or relocation potentially tens of millions of people.

Anyone who seriously suggest a nuclear strike on Taiwan is either living in a parallel dimension, or has not even started to think about the consequences of repercussions of what they are suggesting.

Not even in 96, when the PLA was greatly outmatch by Taiwan's forces did nuclear weapons ever come close to becoming a possible option. Now, with the military balance firmly in Beijing's side, nuclear weapons are even more firmly off the table.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

wei dian da yuan,

or

besiege a point, then ambush the reinforcements,.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

I wonder whats the number of Taiwan citizens living on the mainland is at any one time and what would be the policy directed towards these people, since a state of war would now exists between the two sides if there was an attack. Do they give them enough time to depart?

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

The conflict would be regarded as the continuation of the civil war, all non-combatant would be considered as Chinese civilians and be treated as such. What Taiwan would do is more interesting, as they can be very unpredictable depending on which party of jokers are in power.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

I agree with Plawolf. There will be no blockade of Taiwan. Blockade of Taiwan is just someone's wishful thinking, a fantasy that will never be practiced by the PLA. Overwhelming forces will be used to finish the affair in days. Pre-deployed PLA submarine fleet and mines will ambush the reinforcements for Taiwan, if there is one coming, which is a big IF.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

Overwhelming forces will be used to finish the affair in days.

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This is a fantasy. It will take months to mobilize enough air, army, and naval assets into nearby provinces to even move against Taiwan. These moves will be detected by satellite reconnaissance and Taiwan will be get to prepare accordingly. That would make an amphibious assault even harder.

Here are a few challenges with the amphibious assault plan.

1.) The length of time required to prepare which will either delay the assault until long after hostilities have commenced or 2) give away the element of surprise. China will have to mass hundreds of aircraft, ships, ballistic missiles, and all their stores room for their crew along the coast-line.

2.) China will have to ensure air and naval superiority before the troop-carrying ships leave port. This could take weeks to months. Taiwan could just store a bunch of anti-ship missile launchers and their radars in bunkers to wait out the aerial assault, then roll them out when they get word the Chinese invasion fleet is approaching. Maybe Chinese CIWS are sufficient, maybe not. Even a single missile landing on a troop-carrying ship could kill hundreds of soldiers and severely damage morale.

3.) Assaulting a fortified beachhead is really, really hard. It would not have to be on the scale of D-Day, but something close to it because Taiwan is going to throw everything they've got at the beachhead. Before you say, "China's air force will soften up the Taiwanese army first", consider the poor record of NATO in bombing Serbian forces in 1999. That was similar mountainous terrain against a vastly inferior foe, yet post-war studies showed how little effect the airstrikes had on Serbia's deployed forces. The success of that war came from hitting power stations, bridges, etc. that hit Serbia's economy.

China has not conducted a bombing campaign in thirty two years!! They have never used laser-guided bombs, cruise missiles, or ballistic missiles in combat. All the training in the world cannot prepare for a real war with a smart enemy. The army has not conducted a real amphibious assault since they took a couple islands in the 1954-1955 First Taiwan Straits Crisis. As a result of China's foreign pacific, China's armed forces are totally inexperienced and it will show when they go into combat for the first time. This is not a knock on the Chinese per se, inexperience results in combat problems for all militaries.

4.) Even if China succeeds in establishing air and naval superiority, and establishes a beachhead on Taiwan, there is a strong possibility the U.S. navy comes to the aid of Taiwan. Whether or not they do is highly sensitive on the political circumstances of the war. If Taiwan declared independence, or struck first, then the U.S. would not come to their aid. But then again the U.S. still might if someone like John McCain is President. For those of you unfamiliar with American politics, John McCain lost to Barack Obama in 2008. His foreign policy is the reincarnation of Barry Goldwater's "extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice." He is more Bush than Bush in seeing the world as black and white, and you can bet he would see Taiwan as white and China as black in such a conflict, no matter how it started. The scary thing is there are many other politicians like him.

If the U.S. intervenes, China loses the war. Taiwan loses too, in the sense that the damage to its economy and population will be huge. China could try to head off an American intervention by fighting back, but no one believes the PLAN and PLAAF could take on several CVBGs at the same and win..then do it all over again a month later when the U.S. sends another wave of CVBGs and stealth bombers. The PLAN and PLAAF cannot be asked to fight Taiwan and the USN at the same time. And what if the U.S. throws up its own maritime embargo on China, preventing ships destined for China from traversing the Straits of Hormuz and Malacca? That is well within the USN's capability and China has no ability to respond.

5.) In a best case scenario where China wins the air, naval, and amphibious assault wars, and the U.S. does not intervene, they still have to fight it out through the mountains and jungles of Taiwan. How hard would ROC forces fight? It's hard to tell. It depends on the political situation, if the KMT and DPP are united, how well-liked the President is, and how the propaganda war plays out. Once the PLA have a secure beachhead and port, and a steady stream of reinforcements, victory would be assured. It's just a matter of how many months it takes and how much destruction is wrought.

Depending on how quickly Taiwan surrenders, the damage could easily exceed that of a nuclear strike. Yes, hard as it is to believe, conventional wars can lead to mass destruction. Think about the Russian siege on Grozny in 1999, the American sieges of Fallujah, and all the cities sacked by conventional and ancient armies. If Taiwan wants to fight it out in the cities, that means tanks, artillery, and bombs are going to be employed in urban areas. Will the PLAAF use napalm and cluster bombs too? It will be ugly. The vast majority of the PLAAF arsenal are unguided bombs and rockets, and in a war, precision munitions will be too expensive and slow to mass produce. PLA doctrine still relies on massed artillery and MLRS rocket salvos. Those are powerful, indiscriminate weapons of mass destruction. I don't say that to make a political point, I saw it to drive home the point that a conventional war in Taiwan could destroy large parts of the country, depending on how long the leadership held out. Hundreds of thousands of conscripts and civilians could die from the fighting and breakdown in basic services.

In the face of all these challenges, a nuclear strike looks more realistic. It avoids the complicated and high risk amphibious assault, it maintains the element of surprise, and it ensures quick surrender and thus no time for foreign intervention, and possibility saves more lives in the long-run. China could first demonstrate its willingness to use nuclear weapons by shooting one into the sea east of the island. A demonstration could cause no destruction or loss of life. After the experiences of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, what leader could call China's bluff and dare them to use those weapons against Taiwan? None. They would almost certainly surrender as soon as they saw the mushroom cloud on the horizon.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

Use or even threat of nuclear weapon would cause very very bad impact on the people of Taiwan. It would be as if the mainland is devlish and the people of Taiwan would all hate the mainland and support independence. The "self recognition rate of being Chinese" in Taiwan fluctuates over time. It dropped most drastically in 96 during the third Strait crisis, when the mainland threatened with assaults.

The best approach is not through sticks or belts, but rather through money, pride and a sense of recognition. Like I have mentioned countless times, majority of the people in Taiwan are still unsure whether if they are Chinese Chinese. The term Chinese is very broad. It is similar to the idea of "English". Majority of Canadians, Yankees, red necks, Ausies, Kiwis, and so forth, would see themselves as English, both linguistically and ethnically. But they would not see them as British or England English. They would swear allegiance to the country they are now in, instead of mother Great Britain. The same applies to the term of Chinese. Unlike majority of the countries around the world, which all have problems of lacking populations. China had too much population since almost ten centuries ago. This drove a lot of population in the coastlines to immigrate abroad. A lot of these people went really far into Southeast Asia, such as Malaysia and Indonesia. Even after hundreds of years, they are still seen as foreign Chinese in their local country and are often secluded. But this does that mean they are Chinese of China.

Taiwan as of the moment is in a very early and premature evolution of heading into this direction. Vast majority of them simply just don't like the Communist government and especially don't like the mainland because of the constant negative things they hear about on the news. Personally, I did door to door sales during summers when school is off. I went through a lot of neighbourhoods and whenever I sense the person might be Chinese, I would ask. Majority of them, old or young, would say they are, but would add that they from Taiwan.

This is a sign that there is still chance to win back the hearts of those people in Taiwan. I have watched a documentary made by a mainland student in Taiwan. She interviewed a lot of college students there and remained silent herself. She did not intentionally direct any of the conversations, but rather let the students speak freely. There was one young man that really gave me a deep impression. He said the sense of national unity often has to do with pride. When a nation is strong and powerful, and especially makes you proud when telling people where you are from, then why not say it. Just like USA, which almost everyone in the world wants to become a citizen of. Even if the person that has nothing to do with US, but would still try to somehow associates him or herself with it, just to get that bit of extra pride or honour. Doesn't matter if the person is Chinese, Brazilian, or Russian, or else, we are all human beings. Majority of us would not want to let people know where we were from if it brings shame to us.

In fact, I have personally met a Russian family that once lived in Germany for ten years. They told me they were German at first, because they thought it was an embarrassing thing to tell people they were Russians. The same applies to our own relatives. If you have a relative that is famous and powerful, obviouslly you would want everything in your life to do with that relative. On the contrary, if that person is poor and infamous, you would probably want to be as distant as possible. In this case, Taiwan is just like Hong Kong. Hong Kong is actually much more non-Chinese than the people in Taiwan are. Decades ago, because mainland China was poor and backwards, people in Hong Kong wanted nothing to do with the mainland. In fact when asked what nationality they are, they would say they are from Hong Kong. Nowadays, due to China's rise in influence, most people from Hong Kong would just say directly that they are Chinese, without mentioning Hong Kong.

The best strategy to regain Taiwan would be similar to what the Russians did to the Ukrainians, which the Russians came to their rescue when the Polish were oppressing and slaughtering them. Over time, the two cultures merged. Even until today, most Ukrainians are still very pro-RUssian (we have to ignore the rare pro-US political leaders). The same applies to the Chinese situation. If mainland influences Taiwan with media, trade, exchange in education, and so on, the people in Taiwan would better relate to mainland. They will accept the mainland and maybe one day, support the idea of reunification. After all, the so called Taiwanese dialect actually came from the province on the other side of the strait. There are more people speaking this dialect in the mainland than there are in Taiwan.

After all, just like the Korean peninsula and Vietnam, the Taiwan problem is a remnant of the cold war. The only difference is that Vietnam unified, whereas China and Korea are still separated. Doesn't matter if the person is from the south or north, he or she is still Korean, and doesn't matter if the person is from west side or east side of the strait, he or she is still Chinese. The only thing in the way is political belief.

Speaking from the perspective of a Chinese, it is sad that the KMT leader Lian Chan lost the 2000 election. He planned to visit mainland after becoming the ROC president. This would be a great boost towards the process of reunification. Unfortunately he lost and what happened later on went the opposite way, and made the whole situation even more complicated.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

Once the news reaches Taiwan that PLA is mobilizing for invasion, Taiwanese will promptly start bailing out. By the time military action starts, most Taiwanese will be gone, many probably have ended up in Mainland.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

supercat said:

Once the news reaches Taiwan that PLA is mobilizing for invasion, Taiwanese will promptly start bailing out. By the time military action starts, most Taiwanese will be gone, many probably have ended up in Mainland.

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Haha sure, sounds like what the PRC should plan for:rofl:.

Re: PLAN Stragety in the Taiwan Strait

Pugachev_diver makes many good points, that rapid economic and cultural integration is the best and most likely way to bring Taiwan back into the fold. I've long favored a Hong Kong/SAR style arrangement for Taiwan. But if Beijing was determined to bring Taiwan back into the fold immediately, and it came down to force of arms, for whatever reason, a nuclear demonstration or strike would be the most advantageous path to victory.