PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Kurt

Junior Member
The comments show the usual problems of reading subtext and not realizing irony.
This article is a very good summary of hopeful expectations of events in the West. It's a narrative according to which real events can be interpretated and presented.
After understanding that, you should rethink how much misunderstanding your different points of view can cause. See, this is the friction that can lead to conflicts and in such a conflict many sides can feel morally justified to act.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
The comments show the usual problems of reading subtext and not realizing irony.
This article is a very good summary of hopeful expectations of events in the West. It's a narrative according to which real events can be interpretated and presented.
After understanding that, you should rethink how much misunderstanding your different points of view can cause. See, this is the friction that can lead to conflicts and in such a conflict many sides can feel morally justified to act.

... a "usual problem" of reading subtext and not realizing irony? how is that a common problem? :confused:. and what is the subtext and what is the irony?

Everyone knows many in the west wish the events in this article would occur in real life, and that is from differing points of views... and you're saying conflict might arise from differing POVs??

Well no sh*t!! I'm sorry but I don't see how posting that admittedly all round crappy article is relevant to this thread and how this last post propogates any ideas from posting the article.

By posting that article it seemed like you were trumpeting the idea that Taiwan could somehow conquer the mainland through their political doctrine and the inherent righteousness of democracy, but now you're taking a step back and saying that is just what the west hopes? And from there somehow going to an all encompassing simple explanation for why conflict arises based on moral justification??

It will be easier for all of us if the last 9 or so posts are just forgotten.

--

As for the whole "US wants war with china in the next 20 years" shenanigan in the last page... well you said yourself china is currently capable of defending her own interests. As time passes her military and economic prowess will only increase. Fighting a conventional war with China for commercial interests in the forseeable future is highly unlikely and will cost the US a heavy toll, one which the public will not likely be willing to suffer. When's the last time the US faced a near peer in total war? Not since WWII I would think.

The problem with your "NAzi germany and japan sought war to gain the spoils" argument is that they didn't seek war with countries of equal/superior parity, like the US, UK and allies in general. China clearly isn't some small hapless european country nor the weak state of the early twentieth century. Would whatever spoils of war the US might gain from china be worth the losses?

Like plawolf said, in a ratonal world there is no way america would want to go to war with china or vice versa. whether governments are rational is another matter -- but for the sake of argument it's more consistent and predictable to assume they are.

The only other way I can see america starting a war is to interrupt china's rise before the tide is irreversible, but even that would be supremely irresponsible.
 
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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
The people have spoken and they are for peace and prosperity across Taiwan straits. Ma beat the secessionist soundly
Ma Wins Second Term in Taiwan Election
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By Michael Forsythe, Yu-Huay Sun and Andrea Wong - Jan 14, 2012 8:00 AM PT

Enlarge image Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou

Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan's president. Photographer: Ashley Pon/Bloomberg

President Ma Ying-jeou was elected to a second four-year term as Taiwan’s president, giving him a renewed mandate to press for closer ties with China that have eased decades-old tensions across the Taiwan Strait.

Ma, the 61-year-old leader of the ruling Kuomintang Party, defeated challenger Tsai Ing-wen, the Democratic Progressive Party chairwoman, by 51.6 percent to 45.6 percent, with all the votes tallied, the Central Election Commission reported on its website. The commission said 74.4 percent of Taiwan’s 18 million eligible voters cast ballots.

“This isn’t a personal victory, this is a victory for the Taiwan people,” Ma said at a rain-soaked victory rally in Taipei late yesterday. “The people have approved our efforts to shelve disputes and strive for peace across the Taiwan Strait.”

Ma’s victory is an affirmation of his effort to improve Taiwan’s relationship with China after decades of strained ties under his DPP predecessor and previous Kuomintang governments. A stable cross-strait relationship may also benefit U.S.-China ties as Washington seeks help from the leadership in Beijing to contain the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea.

“Cross-Strait peace, stability and improved relations, in an environment free from intimidation, are of profound importance to the United States,” the White House said in a statement congratulating Ma on his victory.
Chinese ‘Pleased’

People in the U.S. administration “will feel the victory of President Ma will be advantageous to maintaining smoother relations with China,” Bruce Jacobs, a professor of Asian languages and studies at Monash University in Melbourne, who was in Taipei for the election, said by phone. “The Chinese will also be pleased.”

China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said in a statement issued through the Xinhua News Agency that Ma’s victory shows that the “peaceful development of cross-straits ties” in the last four years was “the correct path that has won the support of the majority of the Taiwanese compatriots.”

Ma was backed by executives of Taiwan’s biggest companies, who said his policies, including a 2010 trade agreement with China, have boosted investment and helped the island’s economy grow.

“The stock market will rally on Monday,” Terry Gou, chairman of Apple Inc. supplier Foxconn Technology Group (2317), said in an interview with local television station TVBS in predicting a Ma victory earlier yesterday.


Markets may have assumed a Ma victory. Option traders placed increasingly bullish bets earlier this month on an exchange-traded fund tracking Taiwan stocks. The ratio of calls to buy the iShares MSCI Taiwan Index Fund versus puts to sell rose on Jan. 6 to the highest level since March 2008, two months before Ma was sworn in for his first term.

“We’re very sorry that we let the public down,” Tsai, 55, said in a concession speech in Taipei yesterday evening, in which she also offered to resign as head of the DPP. “The cross-strait relations is a complicated matter and cannot be treated in the naive way that the KMT is doing now or it will become a source of conflict for Taiwan people later.”

In his first term, Ma ended a six-decade ban on direct air, sea and postal links and signed 16 trade agreements with China, arguing that better ties with the mainland would create stability attractive to investors who feared the political risk was too high to put their money into Taiwan.

“I will continue to pace our cross strait relations in the same manner as I did in the last three years,” Ma said.
International Ties

Jacobs said some members of Ma’s KMT were concerned that Taiwan was too dependent on China. In his victory speech, Ma pledged to “strengthen ties with the international community.”

Ma, who has law degrees from New York University and Harvard University, soothed Chinese leaders when he came into office in 2008 with his vow of “no unification, no independence, and no use of force.” China had criticized a push by the DPP’s Chen Shui-bian to seek sovereignty during his 2000-08 tenure as president. Chinese officials had warned that relations would suffer if Tsai won.

“You can argue Ma overlooked some of the domestic issues, but it’s easy to criticize others,” said graphic designer Eric Wang, 27, who voted for Ma in 2008 and this year. “I don’t think Tsai can do a better job than Ma given such challenging global conditions.”
Missiles Deployed

The Chinese government, which itself will undergo a leadership change later this year, has never ruled out the use of force to reunite with the island. Taiwan has been governed separately since 1949 after KMT forces were defeated on the mainland by the Communists in a civil war. China had as many as 1,200 short-range missiles deployed opposite Taiwan as of December 2010, according to an annual review by the U.S. Defense Department.

“I will devote my life to protect the Republic of China’s sovereignty and dignity,” Ma said, using the formal name for Taiwan. “This is my solemn vow.”

Taiwan’s voters also elected members of the Legislative Yuan, the island’s parliament. The Kuomintang Party retained its majority, winning 64 of 113 seats, the Central Election Commission said, down from 81 seats in 2008. The DPP won 40 seats and the People First Party won 3 seats. The PFP presidential candidate, James Soong, won 2.8 percent of the vote.

Taiwan’s economy will slow to 4.05 percent this year from 4.5 percent in 2011 and 10.7 percent in 2010, according to economists’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. China’s economy grew at a 9.2 percent rate in 2011 and its expansion will slow to 8.5 percent this year, the data show.

Ma vowed to learn from the criticism leveled at him during the campaign by Tsai, who said Taiwan was losing jobs to China and that the gap between rich and poor was increasing.

“I hope in the next four years the wealth gap will narrow and we will take care of the underprivileged,” Ma said. “I want Taiwan to continue to have a stable environment for growth.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Michael Forsythe in Beijing at [email protected]; Yu-Huay Sun in Taipei at [email protected]; Andrea Wong in Taipei at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Peter Hirschberg at [email protected]
 

solarz

Brigadier
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This is an opinion article in the NY Times about Taiwan's future role. President Ma Ying-jeou’s May 2008 declaration of “no unification, no independence, and no use of force” can turn into a major problem for the current political structure of the PRC because it contains a systemic challenge without giving up an inch of self-determined gouvernment. The economic intertwining means increased contact and knowledge of each other's system. Tiny Taiwan could end up conquering China by example. On the other hand, the same could possibly be said about Hong-Kong and Macao.


The comments show the usual problems of reading subtext and not realizing irony.
This article is a very good summary of hopeful expectations of events in the West. It's a narrative according to which real events can be interpretated and presented.
After understanding that, you should rethink how much misunderstanding your different points of view can cause. See, this is the friction that can lead to conflicts and in such a conflict many sides can feel morally justified to act.

Sorry, but neither the wording of that NYT article nor the wording of your own post conveys a sense of "hopeful expectation".
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Sorry, but neither the wording of that NYT article nor the wording of your own post conveys a sense of "hopeful expectation".

Exactly Not even close all those western pundit who predict close contest are all wrong as usual. They just grasping the straw in the wind
Look this is what Wall Street journal predict.

In a heated race, Mr. Ma fought an uphill battle against Ms. Tsai, who tried to cash in on the disappointment among middle- and low-income classes that closer economic ties between Taiwan and China has mostly benefited just ]the rich, while Taiwan's export-reliant economy is hit hard by economic turmoil in the U.S. and Europe.

I always belief Chinese people on both side of the straits are rational people. Normal relation without the "92 Consensus of one China" is unthinkable. The voter seem to agree with this principle. A great day for Chinese Nation the secessionist is soundly defeated

The Taiwan Affairs Office of China's State Council said a peaceful development of relations between Taiwan and China during Mr. Ma's first four-year term is a "correct road."

"We are willing to join hands with Taiwan's all walks of life on the basis of continuing to oppose the 'Taiwan independence' and sticking to the '1992 consensus,' to break new ground for the peaceful development of the cross-Strait relations and make common efforts for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation."
 
Exactly Not even close all those western pundit who predict close contest are all wrong as usual. They just grasping the straw in the wind
Look this is what Wall Street journal predict.

In a heated race, Mr. Ma fought an uphill battle against Ms. Tsai, who tried to cash in on the disappointment among middle- and low-income classes that closer economic ties between Taiwan and China has mostly benefited just ]the rich, while Taiwan's export-reliant economy is hit hard by economic turmoil in the U.S. and Europe.

I always belief Chinese people on both side of the straits are rational people. Normal relation without the "92 Consensus of one China" is unthinkable. The voter seem to agree with this principle. A great day for Chinese Nation the secessionist is soundly defeated

The Taiwan Affairs Office of China's State Council said a peaceful development of relations between Taiwan and China during Mr. Ma's first four-year term is a "correct road."

"We are willing to join hands with Taiwan's all walks of life on the basis of continuing to oppose the 'Taiwan independence' and sticking to the '1992 consensus,' to break new ground for the peaceful development of the cross-Strait relations and make common efforts for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation."

What a piece of trash. Not your post, but the editorial. Ma won by a landslide victory. If better cross-strait relations only benefited the rich, he should only receive 1% of the vote. Those people really don't know what they're talking about.
 

solarz

Brigadier
What a piece of trash. Not your post, but the editorial. Ma won by a landslide victory. If better cross-strait relations only benefited the rich, he should only receive 1% of the vote. Those people really don't know what they're talking about.

I don't know about that, Ma had 51.6% of the votes and Tsai had 45.6%. It doesn't seem like a landslide to me, unless there's something I'm missing?
 
I don't know about that, Ma had 51.6% of the votes and Tsai had 45.6%. It doesn't seem like a landslide to me, unless there's something I'm missing?

To be honest, I'd prefer landslide as one with a massive difference and a very one-sided ratio, but it just seems like that these days landslide can be considered as way less than that.
 
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