PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
That sounds like u/Nukem_extracrispy. He's an amusing clown. You should ask him, "well, if the United States had such superiority, why haven't they eliminated the Russian, Chinese and North Korean arsenals then?" And watch him squirm and respond with something asinine like, "...because American leaders are weak.." or something like that.
This guy is completely insane:
https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/1amevvf/_/kpnoyu0 https://www.reddit.com/r/Presidents/comments/1bde97y/_/kumgbno https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/1axa4ae/_/krmyzro https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/184urnl/_/kayfdzz
 

obj 705A

Junior Member
Registered Member
Yes, in the 2030s, I see the US withdrawing support for Taiwan.

In the past 3 years, we've already seen the US and Japan walk back statements that in the event of a Taiwan-China conflict, they have the option of going to war with China.

That leaves potential economic sanctions, which are still enough of a deterrent given that China can live with the status quo and doesn't want a war which will inevitably district from domestic development. In the longer-term, that economic development will translates into much greater military capability and political/economic influence anyway.

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Just going back to the topic of Israel.

Suppose China were to formally recognise a Palestinian state? I reckon most of the world would support this. For example:

1. The Australian government is formally floating this idea in the press
2. Spain is pushing for this as well. And inside the EU, you've got Spain, Belgium, Ireland and Slovakia pushing against Germany, Austria, Hungary etc. And remember the view outside of the West is generally far more pro-Palestine
3. In a prior UN resolution over Israeli colonists trying to take over the West Bank, it was literally every single country in the world voting against Israel, with the sole exception of the USA
4. Even in the US, 55% of Americans disapprove of Israel's actions in Gaza

It should be clear that decades of Israeli military occupation of Gaza and the West Bank haven't worked, and that the conflicts on Israel's borders will not stop until either the Palestinians have their own state or the Palestinians are full citizens of Israel.

Given that there would be more Palestinians than Jews in such a Greater Israel, a democratic Israel would cease being a Jewish State. The alternative is full-on apartheid in Israel which isn't going to work either.

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So if China (and others) were to recognise a Palestinian state (at least in the West Bank), what would happen?

The Palestinians could demand the removal of the Israeli Army and 500,000 Jewish colonists from the West Bank. My guess is that Israel would resist the removal of its colonists, as Israeli society has taken a sharp turn towards the conservative, religious right over the past 2 decades. Plus the demographic and political trends are for Israel to become even more so in the future.

At a minimum, these Israeli Army bases supporting those Jewish colonists in the West Bank become valid targets.

Rationally, it is not in US interests to be dragged down by supporting such Israeli actions and siding with the bad guys. But my guess is that the Israel Lobby would still be powerful enough to convince US politicians into supporting Israel's colonial oppression of Palestine.
The Taiwan issue is completely seperate from the Israel/Palestine conflict. So I don't know what kind of connection you are trying to make when suggesting Chinese policy decisions regarding Israel.

The reality is that both Israel & Palestine are irrelevant to China, their existance is the same as their absence.
The reason for China's diplomatic support for the Palestinian cause is firstly for humanitarian reasons & secondly because that gives China a good standing and image among the Arab & wider muslim world (the muslim people not the governments, since some of the Arab leaders are agents of the US).
so Chinese support for Palestine will not go beyond using the veto at the UNSC & speaking in favor of the Palestinians at the UN & that's about it, but there will be no major Chinese interference in the issue.

The US will not fire a single bullet against China in defence of Taiwan. And if they do all their bases in east Asia will be destroyed. The reason why China is not already using military force to regain Taiwan is due to fear of sanctions. China's number one priority is for the Chinese people to live a comfortable and prosperous life.

everyone including Taiwan sepratists, the US, Japan and to a less extent China is content with the status quo.
The reason why the US are trying to creat some sort of an Asian NATO is not to launch some sort of a war against China. instead the US wants to control everything in East Asia except China. That is just as how the US used the "Russia threat" to scare the Europeans into willingly becoming vassals of the US. The US wants to use the "China threat" to scare all East Asians into becoming vassals of the US.

IMO when China's economy is fully developed that will be the point when China will initiate military reunification so probably during the 2040s.
 

gpt

Junior Member
Registered Member
can you point out where in that document it states or hints that? I read it and could not get that message.
Atmospheric loading on the missile booster during a depressed flight is significantly higher, which degrades the accuracy of the RV; makes it hard to achieve the precision required for counterforce targeting of hardened or deeply buried targets. The accuracy of these trajectories (shown in the trajectory parameters table - the CEP values too large), is not sufficient for counterforce.
Shorter flight time (<7 minutes) doesn't allow for sufficient time to complete the MIRV deployment before reentry.
Some of these constraints can be overcome (MIRV buses could potentially be redesigned to work with these constraints) with advances in technology but on the whole its not reliable enough.

This guy is completely insane:
He thinks the real world is a turn-based game where one side shoots and the other side isn't allowed to do anything lol
 
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