PLAN guessing game

planeman · Dec 29, 2006

As I reflect on PLAN developments in 2006 - the Type-022, 052C, 054A, 071... my mind came to wonder what will be revealed in 2007. A list of unanswered questions comes to mind.

So here's the deal; simply answer the questions in turn with your predictions. After a period of a few weeks when we have lots of predictions, a mod deletes all the discursive/off-topic/waffle posts so that we are just left with specific predictions, and the thread is locked like a time capsual so that people can't change their answers.

- -- -- - -- - -- -- - -- - --- -- - -- - - - -- - -- -

1. One of the great guessing games of 2006 has been what SAM equips the Type-054A frigate. Your guess?
a) SA-N-9/Shtil/Buk (NATO "Grizzly") or development thereof
b) PL-12/SD-10 deriative
c) Barak
d) HQ-7/Crotale or development thereof
e) HQ-64/LY-60 or development thereof
f) HQ-9 yeah baby!
g) something else completely (please specify)

2. Still on the gorgeous Type-054A, what anti-ship missiles will they have when first fitted?
a) YJ-83
b) YJ-62
c) Klub
d) SS-N-22 Moskit (NATO Sunburn)
e) Something different (please specify)

3. Will the Varyag be sailed under her own power in 2007?
a) Yes
b) No

4. Type-094 "Jin" SSBN. Will it be confirmed as the genuine article on or before April 1st 2007?
a) Yes
b) No

5. Re the Type-022 FAC, how many will have been confirmed by june 2007?
a) 10
b) 15
c) 20
d) 25+
e) only 4 because they keep repainting the damn numbers!

6. How many new Type-054A frigates will be seen under construction by May 2007?
a) None, 2 is the limit for new PLAN warships
b) 1 more
c) 2 more
d) loads more, they are breeding like rabbits!

7. What is your master prediction for 2006?
a) please specify

planeman · Dec 29, 2006

My predictions:

- -- -- - -- - -- -- - -- - --- -- - -- - - - -- - -- -

1. One of the great guessing games of 2006 has been what SAM equips the Type-054A frigate. Your guess?
a) SA-N-9/Shtil/Buk (NATO "Grizzly") or development thereof

2. Still on the gorgeous Type-054A, what anti-ship missiles will they have when first fitted?
a) YJ-83

3. Will the Varyag be sailed under her own power in 2007?
b) No

4. Type-094 "Jin" SSBN. Will it be confirmed as the genuine article on or before April 1st 2007?
b) No - we'll still be guessing

5. Re the Type-022 FAC, how many will have been confirmed by june 2007?
b) 15

6. How many new Type-054A frigates will be seen under construction by May 2007?
b) 1 more

7. What is your master prediction for 2006?
a) please specify
I predict that there will be a completely new Frigate class starting construction to replace the Type-053s and compliment the type-054As.

tphuang · Dec 29, 2006

planeman said:
As I reflect on PLAN developments in 2006 - the Type-022, 052C, 054A, 071... my mind came to wonder what will be revealed in 2007. A list of unanswered questions comes to mind.

So here's the deal; simply answer the questions in turn with your predictions. After a period of a few weeks when we have lots of predictions, a mod deletes all the discursive/off-topic/waffle posts so that we are just left with specific predictions, and the thread is locked like a time capsual so that people can't change their answers.

- -- -- - -- - -- -- - -- - --- -- - -- - - - -- - -- -

1. One of the great guessing games of 2006 has been what SAM equips the Type-054A frigate. Your guess?
a) SA-N-9/Shtil/Buk (NATO "Grizzly") or development thereof
b) PL-12/SD-10 deriative
c) Barak
d) HQ-7/Crotale or development thereof
e) HQ-64/LY-60 or development thereof
f) HQ-9 yeah baby!
g) something else completely (please specify)

something else completely. HH-16 is a separate new naval SAM project. If you followed PLAN photos, a while back you would've seen a MK-41 style VLS on test ship 891. Apparently, HH-16 was getting tested on it, so we know it's a domestic development. It's not HQ-7, HQ-64, HQ-9 simply because it uses a different set of search radar and FCR.

2. Still on the gorgeous Type-054A, what anti-ship missiles will they have when first fitted?
a) YJ-83
b) YJ-62
c) Klub
d) SS-N-22 Moskit (NATO Sunburn)
e) Something different (please specify)

it looks like the same type of launchers used on other ships, so something in YJ-8 series. Notice that we went from YJ-83 to KD-88, skipped a few numerics in 80s. Apparently, 85 was the original designation for YJ-83K, but anyhow, 86 and 87 seem to just not been used for some reason.

3. Will the Varyag be sailed under her own power in 2007?
a) Yes
b) No

hmm, hard to say. I would think probably near the end of the year, it will be.

4. Type-094 "Jin" SSBN. Will it be confirmed as the genuine article on or before April 1st 2007?
a) Yes
b) No

no

5. Re the Type-022 FAC, how many will have been confirmed by june 2007?
a) 10
b) 15
c) 20
d) 25+
e) only 4 because they keep repainting the damn numbers!

according to HMMVV on CDF who has been following it for a while now, he said about 30 have already been launched at least. I personally think we might get 50 by the end of 2007.

6. How many new Type-054A frigates will be seen under construction by May 2007?
a) None, 2 is the limit for new PLAN warships
b) 1 more
c) 2 more
d) loads more, they are breeding like rabbits!

outside of the currrent 4 under construction, we might see 2 more? One on both HP and HD? That's max though.

7. What is your master prediction for 2006?
a) please specify

I assume you mean 2007? Not really master, but I do agree there will be a class dedicated to ASW introduced between 022 and 054A. Probably in the Western corvette class.
Dalian will get the next order for 071. We might see the construction for a LHA (070 class?) start in HD? But I'm just guessing, since unlike 071 and 054A, we haven't seen any models for that.
There should be more Yuan class Subs coming out. There seems to be a resurgent in yuan photos in recent months, maybe they will finally start a serial production of it.
But considering that we haven't seen any new models coming out, I really have a feeling 2007 might be a quiet year relatively speaking. This year was a little hectic. Other than Jiangnan building Yuanwang instead of 052 class, the entire military shipyards were all so pre-occupied.

Finn McCool · Dec 29, 2006

1. One of the great guessing games of 2006 has been what SAM equips the Type-054A frigate. Your guess?
f) HQ-9 yeah baby!

I pick the HQ-9 because it makes sense for the PLAN to pick an indigenous platform.

2. Still on the gorgeous Type-054A, what anti-ship missiles will they have when first fitted?
b) YJ-62

Same reason as above except I went with 62 instead of 83 because it is frigate.

3. Will the Varyag be sailed under her own power in 2007?
a) Yes

I pretty much have the same feeling as TpHuang on this one.

4. Type-094 "Jin" SSBN. Will it be confirmed as the genuine article on or before April 1st 2007?
b) No

I just haven't seen enough evidence that it is ready yet.

5. Re the Type-022 FAC, how many will have been confirmed by june 2007?
a) 10

Really this is just a guess...I don't know.

6. How many new Type-054A frigates will be seen under construction by May 2007?
c) 2 more

Again this is kind of a guess.

7. What is your master prediction for 2007?
a) please specify

I predict that we start to hear a lot more on the 095 SSN project. It was confirmed that the project exsisted, but we haven't heard anything else.

Gollevainen · Dec 29, 2006

planeman said:
1. One of the great guessing games of 2006 has been what SAM equips the Type-054A frigate. Your guess?
a) SA-N-9/Shtil/Buk (NATO "Grizzly") or development thereof
b) PL-12/SD-10 deriative
c) Barak
d) HQ-7/Crotale or development thereof
e) HQ-64/LY-60 or development thereof
f) HQ-9 yeah baby!
g) something else completely (please specify)

Propaply a) HHQ-16 aka chinese derivate of Sa-n-12 (IMO)/ or the normal Russian SA-N-12 in VSL mode together with improved (possiply also chinese) derivates of Orekh fir control radar

2. Still on the gorgeous Type-054A, what anti-ship missiles will they have when first fitted?
a) YJ-83
b) YJ-62
c) Klub
d) SS-N-22 Moskit (NATO Sunburn)
e) Something different (please specify)

a)

3. Will the Varyag be sailed under her own power in 2007?
a) Yes
b) No

b) No, perhaps in late 2008, but not before....if its ever to get own machinery

4. Type-094 "Jin" SSBN. Will it be confirmed as the genuine article on or before April 1st 2007?
a) Yes
b) No

b) No. But it migth surface in form of nice juicy pics...

5. Re the Type-022 FAC, how many will have been confirmed by june 2007?
a) 10
b) 15
c) 20
d) 25+
e) only 4 because they keep repainting the damn numbers!

a) ....and I wish they would stop there and new, this century desing of FAC thinking will surface instead....

6. How many new Type-054A frigates will be seen under construction by May 2007?
a) None, 2 is the limit for new PLAN warships
b) 1 more
c) 2 more
d) loads more, they are breeding like rabbits!

b) Propaply that...thougth I would like to see two...

7. What is your master prediction for 2006?
a) please specify

[/QUOTE]

Nothing new...PLAN will continue slowly to generate more bulk material for its fleet to catch up other naval powers like UK, French, Germany, Italy, India and Japan with the basic strength of the navy and we still see some oddityes like Type22 around that indicates that the tactical doctrine of the navy isent changing that rabidly as one migth assume...the coastal defence propaply keep enjoing strong political support but next five years of so we begun to see the tide turning and more emphasis would be put to the goal of getting blue water....propaply one or two new desings would come up...

I agree with Planeman, lets lock this up and move to the midst of the dark vaults of the moderators own forum along wiht the "Black list" and other member related behind-back-BS-chitt-chatt-threads.....

adeptitus · Dec 29, 2006

My predictions:

1) A
2) A
3) B
4) B
5) A
6) C
7) The 054A and 071 will be undergoing sea trials. If the sea trials for 052C is complete we might see additional destroyer hulls being laid down 2007-2008.

crobato · Dec 30, 2006

planeman said:
My predictions:

- -- -- - -- - -- -- - -- - --- -- - -- - - - -- - -- -

1. One of the great guessing games of 2006 has been what SAM equips the Type-054A frigate. Your guess?
a) SA-N-9/Shtil/Buk (NATO "Grizzly") or development thereof

Probably a local development, in partnership with the original makers of the Shtil. Probably longer ranged than the Shtil-1 due to the size of the Orekhs, which is notably, stealthified for the first time.

2. Still on the gorgeous Type-054A, what anti-ship missiles will they have when first fitted?
a) YJ-83

Same here.

3. Will the Varyag be sailed under her own power in 2007?
b) No

4. Type-094 "Jin" SSBN. Will it be confirmed as the genuine article on or before April 1st 2007?
b) No - we'll still be guessing

Same here too.

5. Re the Type-022 FAC, how many will have been confirmed by june 2007?
b) 15

At least 24.

6. How many new Type-054A frigates will be seen under construction by May 2007?
b) 1 more

There will be a total of four. We have seen two launched, a third still in the docks and we will see a fourth one.

7. What is your master prediction for 2006?
a) please specify
I predict that there will be a completely new Frigate class starting construction to replace the Type-053s and compliment the type-054As.

You mean for 2007? For me it will may a new destroyer class, 052D or something.

sumdud · Dec 30, 2006

My guess:
1.a) SA-N-9/Shtil/Buk (LY-60 is for export. HQ-7 failed already. PL-12 is speculation, no time for development.)
2.a) YJ-83 (it's a frigate, overkill and stability crisis w/ the big sticks!)
3.b) No
4.b) No
5.d) 25+ (breeding like hares!)
6.c) 2 more (or 3 more, but that's max)
7. New development on torpedoes and ASROC.
No new DDG design until-the earliest-September
Missiles mated with 730.
Cat-LCs replace the cushion crafts.
2 071, 5 Yuans out

crolick · Jan 4, 2007

Nice fun :china:

1) A
2) A
3) A
4) B
5) B
6) A
7) VARYAG on the loose:coffee:

PLAN guessing game

planeman

Senior Member

planeman

Senior Member

tphuang

Lieutenant General

Finn McCool

Captain

Gollevainen

Colonel

adeptitus

Captain

crobato

Colonel

sumdud

Senior Member

crolick

New Member