PLAN did only two sub ´patrols´ in 2006!

Just read an interesting post on the FAS blog:

The guy has aquired some info from declassified US Navy documents about the number of PLAN submarine (SSN, SSBN and SSK) ´patrols´ from 1981-2006. The average is 2.8 patrols during the 25 year period and PLAN did a mere two patrols in ´06 and NONE in ´05! Accordingly he maintains that the PLAN submarine fleet is virtually dormant and nothing more than a coastal defence force with very limited capabilties.

Obviously the whole interpretation hinges on the definition of what a ´patrol´exactly is because (surprise, surprise!) the US Navy refuses to tell their definition since it is will remain classified (would reveal methods and sources ... etc.).

Several interpretations are possible but apart from the scenario that PLAN´s subs are are very expensive hoax (May be ROCN does not need additional SSK since the current two units are enough to hold such a decrepit force in check!) the following explanation is perhaps plausible:

A ´patrol´ may be a fairly big thing in USN parlance, meaning an excursion into oceanic waters with a duration of at least some weeks. After 2000 (the alltime high with 6 patrols) the number of patrols declined steadily whereas PLAN commissioned around two dozen new SSN,SSBN,SSK during this period. That intriguing fact may be explained by the urgent need for trial and training of the new subs and the fresh inexperienced crews. This kind of activity is obviously conducted in coastal areas and not in areas far away from chinese waters and the low number of ´patrols´in recent years mirrors only an intensive period of trial and training in PLAN´s subfleet.

Of course that is just my own speculation about the topic and the truth may be much more complicated. But what is your opinion guys?

Best regards Violet Oboe

Of course that is just my own speculation about the topic and the truth may be much more complicated. But what is your opinion guys?

Best regards Violet Oboe

Click to expand...

First off Violet Oboe is one of the most intelligent posters in this forum in my opinion.

I hate to sound like a US news report but it is known in USN circles that PLAN subs and surface ships spend only about 30-45 days at sea a year. It is also known that some of that PLAN at sea time is spent anchored out for training. I can only name an "unknown source".

In comparison USN ships deploy overseas every 12-20 months and when they are assigned to their homeport in the US most ships except CVN's spend 36 days plus at sea every three months. CVN's spend about half there time in the US at sea.

I agree, also they don't want anyone spying on their training and chose to conduct it in PRC territorial waters. A lot of training can be done inport and at sub schools- DC, Fire Control, etc., and there are many older SSKs that are in reserve- counting them will give distorted average picture.
Also, without CBGs there is no need to send many subs to the Indian Ocean and W.Pac yet.

I know a guy who flew P-3s out of the Phillipines in the 1980s. I asked him about his experiences and he said that the Chinese subs he followed rarely left very costal waters and they didn't even spend much time tracking the Chinese. He said they spent much more time on the Soviets out of Camn Ranh Bay, both subs and surface ships. It seemed odd to me that he said when he approached ROC airspace he was intercepted and harrassed much more than when he was intercepted by Chinese, Vietnamese or Soviet pilots.

Anyway, the point of my story is that I don't think that the PLAN has done very many cruises out of coastal waters. However they have done some, as we can see from the incident with Kitty Hawk a while ago.

I think the reason is for low time outside coastal water is obvious. You can count the number of China's nuclear subs on your fingers. The rest are all conventional with significantly less range. They could have patrols outside coastal waters, but they wouldn't achieve much.

Good point! But sooner or later they should practice long SSK patrols even if they get more SSNs, IMHO- that's what AIP is for!

I don't really think AIP is for long ocean patrolls, the range on AIP is still not sufficient.
It's more for silent patrolls in remote/far away -but close- areas. Like cruising through the straight and then going on AIP to stalk Taiwans naval habours. Or at other hotspots. And that silent patroll training can probably be done in costal waters. But of course it somehow can't replace the feeling of beeing in blue waters for advanced training.

Well, Yuan is supposdedly going to be fit with the German Type 212's engine and that sub can stay submerged and patrol for three weeks. If the Yuan-class really has this engine it could allow for extended patrols beyond China's shores.

German, Japanese, Russian and American diesel subs coducted long transits and patrols very far from their bases during WWII. Even without AIP modern subs can cross oceans slowly and perform their assigned missions, with resupply at sea if need be,- the Soviets' SLBMs were deployed on conventiuonal boats. Speed and endurance is traded off for stealth.
I have read in a German English language military magazine that some analysts think that Yuan may be just a prototype before some other class based on it is built.

@bd popeye: Posting only some lines deemed to be intelligent does not imply having actually intelligence!

PLAN´s subfleet is currently in a complicated transformation and combat capabilities are indeed limited. Some new types like SSN 095 and an improved YUAN (with AIP) will show up in the next few years and only after their respective introduction with meaningful numbers after 2012-15 PLAN will be able to challenge USN plus allied forces (JSDF) in the area.

PLAN´s naval officers have to work very hard in the future for reaching a level of excellence which will eventually enable them to stand a true fight and they would be well advised to study the history of the modern japanese navy from their modest beginnings in 1869 to the awesome hightech force of 2006 in minute detail. Whether Kaigun or Kaijo Jietai: these men had always the spirit in them to fight against heavy odds and training, discipline and moral standard enabled them to fight against an adversary with vastly superior resources.

Chinas´s soldiers have to internalize the urge for aiming high and working tirelessly for achieving excellence since only by displaying highest professionalism they will earn the kind of respect adequate for the protectors of the honour of the state. Unfourtunately the PLAN is not immaculate regarding ugly incidents of corruption, ineptitude, laziness and even criminal (smuggling,etc.) behaviour but although mountains have to be moved resulting progress should be even more impressive. :china: