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iantsai

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think this plan is more reasonable.

Type 055 is much more expensive than type 052D, to guard the aircraft carriers PLAN needs more type 052D
@iantsai

亚洲特快 I think had a good video about carrier groups I believe (or maybe it was another channel).

Basically it's 1 carrier, 2 055 and like 4 052D (and there was also 4 smaller frigate right around the carrier).
Yes, but PLAN still needs more 052D-like combatants to serve as the lead ship of the escort operation of the Gulf of Aden or so.

For this type of low-intensity missions, type 055 is too big, too powerful and not economic enough.

So the ideal configuration of type 055 and 052D would not just be 1:2, but 1:3 or even more.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
I can see your point that a shipyard focusing on some particular type naturally makes it more efficient and skillful at that type.
But in that sense Dalian Shipyard will hardly advance its skills and permanently becomes the 2nd tier to Jiangnan. I am not sure that what's plotted for Dalian Shipyard. But each decision has its own pros & cons.

In a sense they already are when CSIC "lost" to CSSC and was absorbed into it, and top heads among CSIC arrested for various charges. This lost is also evident when the carrier program was transferred to Jiangnan. Another is that the 052X series were all built in Jiangan, until somewhere late in the production, some were transferred to Dalian. Even with the commercial shipping, you can see the lost of prestige with DSIC compared to Jiangnan, Hudong Zhonghua and others. The top end commercial ships, like LNG carriers and mega sized container ships are built by Jiangnan and Hudong Zhonghua.

This is not to say Dalian is trying to regain their previous footing with some success. Their build for the 052D and 055 has been good and well accepted by the PLAN. In the commercial field, they were able to finish the world's biggest tanker that is duel fueled (LNG + oil).

But CSSC is now in effective control of DSIC and all CSIC facilities.

If you want to maximize efficiency, you would want all of one type to be built in one yard. But Dalian has proved themselves already capable of building the Type 055, so that capability and capacity is reserved when the PLAN needs to go more than 8.

Also, for example, just because Hudong Zhonghua doesn't make 052X or 055X does not make it a second tier. Even if it only made Type 054A, 071 and 075, HDZ is probably the most top tier shipyard in China commercially having garnered the biggest share of LNG carrier contracts and mega sized containerships.

One also has to take account that Chinese shipyards are all heavily booked, bookings up by over 220% since 2020. CSSC could be allocating shipyard capacity and trying to balance between commercial and military orders.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
As far as the efficiency go, it's negligible. Both Dalian and Jiangnan have built 052D and 055 before, so there is no such thing as ramping up the learning curve; for small batch production such as large war ships, there is also no economy of scale to speak of. The best justification for (roughly) equally splitting the orders between the two is to keep them skilled in large and complex works. Dalian and Jiangnan are largely at the same level of sophistication when it comes to building large combat ships and China may want to keep that way for a variety of reasons.

I can understand they may split the quantity in each type not exactly 50-50, but the types of the ships should be spread between the two. In any case, we shall see.

There are still economies of scale

The 1st Arleigh Burke required twice the labour hours of the 10th Arleigh Burke

Each shipyard has only produced 4 Type-055s each, so there's still scope for economies of scale and the learning curve.

So if you need another 8 Type-055s, it should be more efficient to concentrate production at 1 location

And the learning curve is most apparent with small batches of large warships eg. 2x CATOBAR carriers or 2x LHDs
The second ship is far cheaper because you can learn from most of the mistakes made during the construction of the 1st ship
 
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weig2000

Captain
There are still economies of scale

The 1st Arleigh Burke required twice the labour hours of the 10th Arleigh Burke

Each shipyard has only produced 4 Type-055s each, so there's still scope for economies of scale and the learning curve.

Negligible, too small of a factor to consider in a larger context.

I'll repeat: no learning curve whatsoever; both shipyards have built many ships of the same types.

No economy of scale: no cost saving from larger procurement from suppliers. Both belong to the same state-owned corporation and the total procurement quantity remains the same no matter how you split the orders between the two shipyards. Unless you want to consolidate your supplier base: absolutely not the case right now.

And, any slightest cost differentials if at all, will be overridden by the overwhelming strategic considerations of keeping the two major naval shipyards skilled, so larger skilled labor pool will be maintained.

I'm repeating my points. It's worth repeating and elaborating the same important points.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Negligible, too small of a factor to consider in a larger context.

I'll repeat: no learning curve whatsoever; both shipyards have built many ships of the same types.

No economy of scale: no cost saving from larger procurement from suppliers. Both belong to the same state-owned corporation and the total procurement quantity remains the same no matter how you split the orders between the two shipyards. Unless you want to consolidate your supplier base: absolutely no the case right now.

And, any slightest cost differentials if at all, will be overridden by the overwhelming strategic considerations of keeping the two major naval shipyards skilled, so larger skilled labor pool will be maintained.

I'm repeating my points. It's worth repeating and elaborating the same important points.

You need roughly 10 repeats before you minimise the labour hours for a warship
As stated previously, each shipyard only has experience of 4 Type-055s each
The logical conclusion is that there is still a learning curve

I wouldn't be too worried about the size of the labour pool.
Shanghai has already built 18 Type-052Ds and the same labour force will just end up doing more commercial work for now, along with some more Type-055s.
 

weig2000

Captain
You need roughly 10 repeats before you minimise the labour hours for a warship
As stated previously, each shipyard only has experience of 4 Type-055s each
The logical conclusion is that there is still a learning curve

Not sure where you come up with this magic number of 10 repeats. All else being equal, each gets another 4 to continue their learning curve if necessary. And there will be more 055s to come. So both shipyards will continue to get skilled.

I wouldn't be too worried about the size of the labour pool.
Shanghai has already built 18 Type-052Ds and the same labour force will just end up doing more commercial work for now, along with some more Type-055s.

I would. But more importantly, it's the distribution of the skilled labor in two different shipyards in two different geolocations. To drive the points further, there once were considerations to develop the skills of building destroyers at Guangdong Shipyard, further down south. This is to spread risks, in time of crisis. China is not at the stage of consolidating shipyards due to shrinking orders. It's important to emphasize that.
 

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
I think this plan is more reasonable.

Type 055 is much more expensive than type 052D, to guard the aircraft carriers PLAN needs more type 052D

Yes, but PLAN still needs more 052D-like combatants to serve as the lead ship of the escort operation of the Gulf of Aden or so.

For this type of low-intensity missions, type 055 is too big, too powerful and not economic enough.

So the ideal configuration of type 055 and 052D would not just be 1:2, but 1:3 or even more.
Ah that comment of mine wasn't about what the ratio of 055 and 052D should be, just noting that a carrier group could be something like that (from a video I watched), in reality things could change especially right now that there's only 2 carriers lol (both of those probably aren't gonna be going that far from the mainland either).
 

by78

General
Just a nice image.

51631488009_695989854d_o.jpg
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Not sure where you come up with this magic number of 10 repeats. All else being equal, each gets another 4 to continue their learning curve if necessary. And there will be more 055s to come. So both shipyards will continue to get skilled.

An Arleigh Burke cost analysis which looked at labour hours for the 1st versus 10th ship.
That should be representative for the Type-052D and Type-055

And ASPI have a piece on the learning curve for naval shipbuilding
You can see a huge drop for the first 5 ships, then still a significant drop for the next 5 ships.
But then the improvements start to tail off

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
An Arleigh Burke cost analysis which looked at labour hours for the 1st versus 10th ship.
That should be representative for the Type-052D and Type-055

And ASPI have a piece on the learning curve for naval shipbuilding
You can see a huge drop for the first 5 ships, then still a significant drop for the next 5 ships.
But then the improvements start to tail off

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
In the grand scale it probably still doesn't matter much, cuz there will be more ships to build in the future (055, 052D) as well as newer types (possible 055A and whatever else).

I also think a lot of the regular work (non-millitary ships) will similarly build up experience to a certain extent, and as said earlier in this thread, the two yards does ultimately fall under same umbrella, so not impossible to imagine that some experience will be shared and the likes.
 
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