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Tam

Major
Registered Member
You sure China have the manpower and resources to build 3 at once ?
In theory, any drydock that can assemble a VLCC or ULCC --- and China has a good bunch of those --- can assemble a carrier, assuming you have the cranes that can lift the huge modules. The problem is the manpower being trained for this. You have to go train the drydock workers, then have them certified under strict tests before you can begin.

The number of factories that can build the modules are probably far fewer, concentrated around Jiangnan and Dalian. If you want to say, assemble ten carriers all at once, two factory facilities will have to be mass producing the modules, then then transport them to the docks at Dalian and Jiangnan (two each), the rest transferred by barge to the drydocks at the south for assembly. I don't suppose the production of these modules can easily be transferred to other factories, since not only do you require a hefty investment in training for your manpower, you need a sizable investment for the capital machinery and tools like presses to help make the modules. These trained resources of manpower and capital machinery tools might also be needed elsewhere, like making other warships like your Type 055 or Type 075 or building the most technologically demanding commercial ships, such as LNG carriers.

Once the carriers are assembled and launched, they will have to find a place where they can be moored for fitting. Then comes the hard part, the fitting of all the equipment to the ship. That will require an army of highly trained and certified technicians that you have to raise. Again this resource may also have to compete with other ship projects including those of other warships.

In theory I am not that optimistic, building a carrier will take resources that compete with other projects, and if China is about to launch a new wave of massive warship building, sizable equity investment must be made on the strategic shipyards like HDZ, Jiangnan, DSC, and the rest to build up their mainpower and tooling. By far, much of China's enormous shipbuilding industry is geared for commercial ship production, you are going to have to retrain, retool a good portion to support the build up.
 

Bltizo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
So just doing the math, assuming a construction speed of roughly 5 years per carrier with both Shanghai and Dalian building carriers concurrently, we could expect up to 6 new carriers by 2035. Add that to the three that are either complete or currently under construction, and we’d be looking at 9 carriers. The bigger bottleneck will probably be aircraft production, at the current rate...
So as we had discussed previously, the 5-6 years spent per carrier in a shipyard is done in different stages.

===

For the purposes of leaving a mark on this thread, let's assume an average 6 year overall production cycle from cutting of steel to finishing sea trials and getting ready for commissioning.

The different phases of a ship's lifecycle includes three overall phases for the purposes of us as PLA watchers:
- fabrication of modules: this involves cutting steel and fabricating modules and is done in assembly halls and in the staging areas in the shipyard where the modules are built before they are transported to the drydock itself for assembly.
- assembly of modules/assembly of ship: this involves transporting the aforementioned modules to the drydock and assembly the modules in the drydock for the actual assembly of the "ship". This phase of a ship's production cycle requires the drydock itself to be occupied, and finishes after the ship is launched from drydock.
- fitting out and sea trials: this phase involves the ship once it is launched and the various subsystems in the ship are installed at dockside, and the successive various sea trials done to work out the initial teething issues and make sure everything is safe and ready to be handed over to the navy.


For each of those three phases, from steel cutting, to handover to the navy, for the sake of discussion let's say it's 2 years each. For 6 years overall.

The thing is, for each of those three stages, you have different personnel working on each stage. The team who are fabricating the modules should be different to the ones assembling the modules in drydock and are different to the ones who are fitting out the ship with its subsystems and taking it out for sea trials.

Meanwhile, the space occupied by the "ship" is different for each of those three stages as well, meaning each shipyard can technically be working on at least three carriers at any one time -- one in module fabrication, one in drydock being assembled, one in fitting out/sea trials. It is essentially just a massive three stage pulse production line.
Obviously what I'm describing isn't anything new -- this is applied to virtually all modern shipbuilding and includes the PLAN's shipbuilding efforts as well. That is how we've seen so many destroyers built in such a relatively short time after all.

The below chart is just illustrative, and reflects a scenario where the PLAN really decides to "go ham" and shows how a single shipyard can theoretically sequentially build six carriers between 2021 and 2035 -- the 6th carrier would be in the water, in the middle of fitting out, so it would be 5 carriers handed over to the navy or in service.
(Each number represents the same single carrier progressing from fabrication -> assembly -> fitting out/sea trials. I start it in 2021 for the sake of discussion because it doesn't include 003 which began fabrication of course many years ago, and isn't represented or counted in the below chart)
Of course, for the sake of our discussion it would be the below but times two, given JN and DL would both be involved in carrier construction.
example - Copy.png


So, between 2021 and 2035, if the PLAN committed to it, DL an JN technically, theoretically could probably each have 6 carriers in the water by the end of 2035, or if we are only counting in service ships, that is 5 carriers each in service by the end of 2035.
Keeping in mind the above is not including CV-16, CV-17 or 003 (which would all still be in service by 2035) -- that is a technical total of 13 carriers in service by end 2035.

... But obviously, it is unlikely the PLAN are going to ask DL and JN to build that many carriers over 15 years.

For one, we know the PLAN is seeking CVNs eventually and I suspect they would prefer to move to CVNs sooner rather than later, and building too many conventionally poweredcarriers
And they're only starting to get into the CATOBAR game as well, so it's possible they might proceed somewhat cautiously for a few years and avoid sequential construction for a couple of years until the Navy has had a chance to play with 003 a little.
Not to mention the sheer number of aircraft, pilots, and human resources you need to man that many aircraft carriers and their battlegroup and airwing is immense... not to mention the PLA will be spending money on a heap of other things other than carriers and surface ships as well.

Also, it is very possible that a nuclear carrier production cycle might be longer than 6 years as well.

However, my point is that if the PLAN do settle on a design that they are happy with, and if they have the rest of the ducks in a row (in so far as the necessary aircraft, ships, crew, pilots etc) to equip carriers with, then it is very possible for the shipyards to build quite a significant number of carriers in the next 15 years.


That is to say, indeed, shipyard construction isn't the limiting factor.
Instead, the biggest factors are:
- the Navy's confidence in settling on a design for "mass production"
- the Navy's decision on what their balance of CVN vs CV fleet will be -- they're going to move onto a CVN design eventually, but it won't be in the near future and likely to be in the ,id-late 2020s at the earliest, so how many CVs will they build before a CVN?
- overall Navy's level of funding in terms of sufficient procurement of supporting systems (surface combatants, SSNs, carrier aircraft for its airwing) and human resources side of things (crew, pilots etc)... which is really just another way of saying what the PLA's overall state of procurement is
 
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Hendrik_2000

Brigadier
Look like the compact dimension is 4m(W) x 5m(H) X 10m(L) you can fit 2 of this in 13m Dia submarine with 2 X 20 MW enough power to drive 12 to 13 m dia bluff body at speed of 25 mile/hr. Here is google translation

The marine 20MW steam turbine generator set of China Shipbuilding Institute 704 is applied!
Recently, the marine 20MW-class steam turbine generator set developed by China Shipbuilding 704 was tested. In this July of the college entrance examination, a proud answer was handed in!

As the responsible unit for the development and supply of marine steam turbine generator sets and power station systems and the focal point for industry standards, 704 has worked silently in this professional field for decades, formed a technical system, established a talent team, and accumulated a wealth of technology , Production experience, more than ten types and more than one hundred sets of steam turbine generator sets developed and developed have been widely used on various types of ships.

In the absence of domestic reference for mature parent models, no mature design experience, and no system-related information, the 704th Institute of Steam Turbine, Generator, Vibration and Noise Reduction, Fluid Machinery, Thermal Engineering, Power Monitoring, Hydraulic Control, Electrical Control and other professional technical forces, joint research and unremitting efforts, finally broke through a number of key technologies such as high integration, high power density, low vibration and noise, and rapid mobility of high-power turbo-generator sets, reaching the international advanced level , Has become a milestone in the technological progress of steam turbine generator sets!

In the future, 20MW steam turbine generator sets can also be directly used in marine engineering, land use and other fields. At the same time, a number of original research results will be widely used in other equipment fields, making greater contributions to the progress and development of my country's ship power.
China Shipbuilding Institute 704
 

feilinreg

Just Hatched
Registered Member
So as we had discussed previously, the 5-6 years spent per carrier in a shipyard is done in different stages.

===

For the purposes of leaving a mark on this thread, let's assume an average 6 year overall production cycle from cutting of steel to finishing sea trials and getting ready for commissioning.

The different phases of a ship's lifecycle includes three overall phases for the purposes of us as PLA watchers:
- fabrication of modules: this involves cutting steel and fabricating modules and is done in assembly halls and in the staging areas in the shipyard where the modules are built before they are transported to the drydock itself for assembly.
- assembly of modules/assembly of ship: this involves transporting the aforementioned modules to the drydock and assembly the modules in the drydock for the actual assembly of the "ship". This phase of a ship's production cycle requires the drydock itself to be occupied, and finishes after the ship is launched from drydock.
- fitting out and sea trials: this phase involves the ship once it is launched and the various subsystems in the ship are installed at dockside, and the successive various sea trials done to work out the initial teething issues and make sure everything is safe and ready to be handed over to the navy.


For each of those three phases, from steel cutting, to handover to the navy, for the sake of discussion let's say it's 2 years each. For 6 years overall.

The thing is, for each of those three stages, you have different personnel working on each stage. The team who are fabricating the modules should be different to the ones assembling the modules in drydock and are different to the ones who are fitting out the ship with its subsystems and taking it out for sea trials.

Meanwhile, the space occupied by the "ship" is different for each of those three stages as well, meaning each shipyard can technically be working on at least three carriers at any one time -- one in module fabrication, one in drydock being assembled, one in fitting out/sea trials. It is essentially just a massive three stage pulse production line.
Obviously what I'm describing isn't anything new -- this is applied to virtually all modern shipbuilding and includes the PLAN's shipbuilding efforts as well. That is how we've seen so many destroyers built in such a relatively short time after all.

The below chart is just illustrative, and reflects a scenario where the PLAN really decides to "go ham" and shows how a single shipyard can theoretically sequentially build six carriers between 2021 and 2035 -- the 6th carrier would be in the water, in the middle of fitting out, so it would be 5 carriers handed over to the navy or in service.
(Each number represents the same single carrier progressing from fabrication -> assembly -> fitting out/sea trials. I start it in 2021 for the sake of discussion because it doesn't include 003 which began fabrication of course many years ago, and isn't represented or counted in the below chart)
Of course, for the sake of our discussion it would be the below but times two, given JN and DL would both be involved in carrier construction.
View attachment 62034


So, between 2021 and 2035, if the PLAN committed to it, DL an JN technically, theoretically could probably each have 6 carriers in the water by the end of 2035, or if we are only counting in service ships, that is 5 carriers each in service by the end of 2035.
Keeping in mind the above is not including CV-16, CV-17 or 003 (which would all still be in service by 2035) -- that is a technical total of 13 carriers in service by end 2035.

... But obviously, it is unlikely the PLAN are going to ask DL and JN to build that many carriers over 15 years.

For one, we know the PLAN is seeking CVNs eventually and I suspect they would prefer to move to CVNs sooner rather than later, and building too many conventionally poweredcarriers
And they're only starting to get into the CATOBAR game as well, so it's possible they might proceed somewhat cautiously for a few years and avoid sequential construction for a couple of years until the Navy has had a chance to play with 003 a little.
Not to mention the sheer number of aircraft, pilots, and human resources you need to man that many aircraft carriers and their battlegroup and airwing is immense... not to mention the PLA will be spending money on a heap of other things other than carriers and surface ships as well.

Also, it is very possible that a nuclear carrier production cycle might be longer than 6 years as well.

However, my point is that if the PLAN do settle on a design that they are happy with, and if they have the rest of the ducks in a row (in so far as the necessary aircraft, ships, crew, pilots etc) to equip carriers with, then it is very possible for the shipyards to build quite a significant number of carriers in the next 15 years.


That is to say, indeed, shipyard construction isn't the limiting factor.
Instead, the biggest factors are:
- the Navy's confidence in settling on a design for "mass production"
- the Navy's decision on what their balance of CVN vs CV fleet will be -- they're going to move onto a CVN design eventually, but it won't be in the near future and likely to be in the ,id-late 2020s at the earliest, so how many CVs will they build before a CVN?
- overall Navy's level of funding in terms of sufficient procurement of supporting systems (surface combatants, SSNs, carrier aircraft for its airwing) and human resources side of things (crew, pilots etc)... which is really just another way of saying what the PLA's overall state of procurement is
I agree with your conclusion on shipyard, but the limitation do not come from navy, but the national plan. When they build one carrier, they need have more destroyer, submarine, seamen... it is a huge project. So I assume they may build 2 carriers in every five-year-plan. The current 003 #1, and possible 003 #2 will be finished by 2025. Then in the next 2 five-year-plans, they will build another 4. So by 2035, they will have 8 carriers in total (including Liaoning and Shandong).
 

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